River hero?

[MC]

Deep in a $109 turbo. Villain is a random, no real read.

My open is somewhat loose, but there were no regs behind me, and players had tight stats. Nearly shoved but decided it was too thin and opted to raise/fold.

I think my line is somewhat standard to get to the river.

Can we hero here? I was surprised when he bet. I expected all hands worse than a pair of Kings to check, ie. I think this is super unlikely to be 44-JJ or even a hand like JQ. So I couldn't figure out a hand that peeled the flop that involved a K, other than KQ obviously. So it feels like KQ, A5, or nothing. Fwiw we also block 33.

We beat all other Ax's that may have peeled the flop except AK which seems super unlikely.

One concern I had was that his bet feels kinda valuey though.



PokerStars Hand #81265345103: Tournament #575010064, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (1250/2500) - 2012/05/31 7:48:53 WET [2012/05/31 2:48:53 ET]
Table '575010064 2' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: idvalentina (31540 in chips)
Seat 2: Murik100 (29106 in chips)
Seat 3: epitomised (43042 in chips)
Seat 4: criuser (24749 in chips)
Seat 5: penacall (27398 in chips)
Seat 7: volmar800 (21056 in chips)
Seat 8: federicocr87 (30472 in chips)
Seat 9: psyhoagromor (33370 in chips)
idvalentina: posts the ante 300
Murik100: posts the ante 300
epitomised: posts the ante 300
criuser: posts the ante 300
penacall: posts the ante 300
volmar800: posts the ante 300
federicocr87: posts the ante 300
psyhoagromor: posts the ante 300
volmar800: posts small blind 1250
federicocr87: posts big blind 2500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
psyhoagromor: folds
idvalentina: folds
Murik100: folds
epitomised: raises 2750 to 5250
criuser: folds
penacall: folds
volmar800: folds
federicocr87: calls 2750
*** FLOP *** [ ]
federicocr87: checks
epitomised: bets 4250
federicocr87: calls 4250
*** TURN *** [ ] []
federicocr87: checks
epitomised: checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
federicocr87: bets 10000

[pleno1]

nah think its a fold, he3 has to 1) float a stupid amount otf and 2) do 1 whilst not betting turn which would be perfect opportunity. I think I just fold pre

[MC]

I think I just fold pre

I fold pre 90% of the time, just feel like I had optimal conditions here.

[Longy]

Yeah I normally fold this pre, we can't call shoves and it is an awkward to play postflop.

I agree it is hard for villain to have something here, but in my experience randoms almost always have it in these spots.

[NoflopsHomer]

Fold>>>>>>>>>>>>Jam>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Call

[MC]

Jam>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Call

Disagree completely with this!

I think like he's ~nuts or air here. We sure are going to make him fold the ~nuts.

[Rupert]

I don't think we can call.  I think he can value bet reasonably thin here like AQ+.  We are unlikely to have a Q+ as we checked back turn so I don't really like a jam either.  Occasionally he is bluffing with a pair <QQ. There are a decent amount of 5x he can have as he is peeling from BB. Not really a ton of bluff combos too other than a few Ax.

[pleno1]

Also aa a small % of time

[Rupert]

Pretty negligible amount

[DMorgan]

I don't really see why an unknown wouldn't play every Qx this way. Can definitely see him peeling Q9s and playing it exactly like this. When you check back the turn he's always going to figure that he has the best hand, feels he has to bet but its only second pair so he chooses a smallish sizing.

The HUD stats would have to be really tight for me to open this, but if thats the case then I think its fine.

[MC]

I don't really see why an unknown wouldn't play every Qx this way. Can definitely see him peeling Q9s and playing it exactly like this. When you check back the turn he's always going to figure that he has the best hand, feels he has to bet but its only second pair so he chooses a smallish sizing.

The HUD stats would have to be really tight for me to open this, but if thats the case then I think its fine.

It's just my experience that randoms are showdown monkeys in spots like this with Qx, especially deep in a tournaments, 2 tables out.

They were tight enough I think

I don't think we can call.  I think he can value bet reasonably thin here like AQ+.  We are unlikely to have a Q+ as we checked back turn so I don't really like a jam either.  Occasionally he is bluffing with a pair <QQ. There are a decent amount of 5x he can have as he is peeling from BB. Not really a ton of bluff combos too other than a few Ax.

Yeah, I think you're right