Flopped Equity, what're your thoughts?

[JK]

PokerStars Hand #107234154428: Tournament #818657161, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (1200/2400) - 2013/11/18 23:29:34 UTC [2013/11/18 18:29:34 ET]
Table '818657161 296' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: pvigar (70036 in chips)
Seat 2: MiniMe1314 (111955 in chips)
Seat 3: Hyde_90 (214791 in chips)
Seat 4: Jamie_Kay0 (150696 in chips)
Seat 5: Pokstar27 (100275 in chips)
Seat 6: air jh (167092 in chips)
Seat 7: fhcmoreira (210876 in chips)
Seat 8: Chaldor (37694 in chips)
Seat 9: rubak787 (73953 in chips)
pvigar: posts the ante 300
MiniMe1314: posts the ante 300
Hyde_90: posts the ante 300
Jamie_Kay0: posts the ante 300
Pokstar27: posts the ante 300
air jh: posts the ante 300
fhcmoreira: posts the ante 300
Chaldor: posts the ante 300
rubak787: posts the ante 300
rubak787: posts small blind 1200
pvigar: posts big blind 2400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jamie_Kay0 [ ]
MiniMe1314: folds
Hyde_90: folds
Jamie_Kay0: raises 2400 to 4800
Pokstar27: folds
air jh: calls 4800
fhcmoreira: folds
Chaldor: folds
rubak787: folds
pvigar: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Jamie_Kay0: bets 5100
air jh: raises 5100 to 10200
Jamie_Kay0: raises 15500 to 25700
air jh: calls 15500
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Jamie_Kay0: bets 37200
air jh: calls 37200
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Jamie_Kay0: bets 82696 and is all-in
air jh: folds
Uncalled bet (82696) returned to Jamie_Kay0
Jamie_Kay0 collected 141700 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 141700 | Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 1: pvigar (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: MiniMe1314 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Hyde_90 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Jamie_Kay0 collected (141700)
Seat 5: Pokstar27 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: air jh folded on the River
Seat 7: fhcmoreira folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Chaldor (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: rubak787 (small blind) folded before Flop


Had this hand in my session the other night. Have had some good feedback from Stato and Picken about it, but thought it was quite interesting.

Would love to hear thoughts on all 3 streets (pre obv standard). Will post my thoughts after a few replies.

[lucky_scrote]

I think the way you want to play the hand is fine but your bet sizing is way off.

The fact you left yourself half pot bet and he folded means he might have had KQ too or maybe 99. You can always 4bet the flop really big and leave yourself a 1-1.5x pot jam on the turn. If he has AJ at this point so be it, you still have amazing equity.

I can't really put him on a decent range because it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to min-raise the flop and then give up on the river to a half pot bet.


Anyway, 4bet the flop to 32k and it leaves you 1.5x pot and you can make him fold all sorts of hands. He's played it like a fish so I assume you can include all sorts of J9 9T 89 QT type hands that we can make fold. Being that there can be KQ and 99 in his range too that we can make fold means there are so many hands that we are losing to but can make fold by setting yourself up for an overjam on turn.

[lucky_scrote]

Would love to hear some other views.

[pleno1]

id call the flop cr, are you crf?

[lucky_scrote]

No, I'm not CRF because I'm not checking? We have the initiative...

[Dubai]

I think doing anything other than calling the flop check raise is borderline bad and without doubt way overplaying our hand.

[pleno1]

I think doing anything other than calling the flop check raise is borderline bad and without doubt way overplaying our hand.

absolutely agree, crf is terrible and trying to induce here is almost definitely going to be way too thin, especially in a micros tournament where

1- we had an insane edge so dont need to take high variance lines
2- its in very much doubt we have close to enough equity to commit to the hand

[pleno1]

sorry i mean bet3betting, not check raising, mean the same otherwise though

[lucky_scrote]

Do you think if we peel we can only win the hand if we improve?

[SuuPRlim]

I think this is a good hand to have as a call because it has gd equity vs him legit value range, very good playability down the streets and calling allows still to rep sets/the Q9 straight/ 2p on later streets if we wish too (obviously its an online donkament where no1 folds so we might not want to) but it's not like anyone can say "oh well he just called the flop so can't have anything" I don't think you'd have a hard tie convincing anyone that you could go bet/call flop chk/chk turn and bet river and show up with 999, or even Q9 or 97, or JT etc

Also IP makes it very playable we can hit a K or a Q and have a much more visible decision. Could also decide on heart turns to raise/call or jam as a bluff and put the weakest hands he's playing this way under a lot of pressure. I imagine though just calling down and trying to make a straight is the best way to play...Ofc the main reason for nots 3betting the flop is if we get 65bbs in here in a single raised pot we're going to be against a VERY strong range, whereas calling keeps our options open without capping ourselves in a spot where we have a good hand IP.