Hmmmmm, is this normal?

[thetank]

You can Germany to win the World Cup at 9.4 on Betfair.

Betdaq will allow you to lay them at 9.3.

So am I correct in thinking you put £12 on them to win on Betfair and get back if they do £112.8

And lay them to lose on Betdaq for £100 to get back £112.05 if they lose.

So whatever happens, you get back more than the £112 you put on.

Am I wrong somewhere or can have a free bet on the host nation to win for 0.7% of whatever you have lying around.

[bolt pp]

did you include the tax?

[thetank]

I honestly have no idea. Is the tax factored in to the odds each site gives you, or is it taken from winnings?

If you back something at 9.4 for £10 and it comes in, do you get £94 back, or do they charge tax then?

The othe one is Japan, whom you can lay on Betdaq for 460 and back on Betfair for 470.

[bobby1]

yes, you are correct but you have to allow for commision taken from the winning bet which will be 5% if you have not had much turnover. So in theory yes, but the comm will take away part of the profit.

[bolt pp]

theres a 5% commission on your winnings on betfair, betdaq probably have a similar charge but ive never used them.

[thetank]

Ah right ok, thought I'd got it wrong somehwere.

Cheers guys.

[bolt pp]

Now gambling is no longer taxed by the goverment(the bookmakers are'nt i mean)
you can frequently find an event with only two runners,(snooker,tennis) being bet to a 95 -94% market with different bookmakers.

Its work getting your bets on, and you need to lay out a lump but i know people that make money doing this.

[bobby1]

Tank,

arbitage is rife on many sports and events. The example you gave features only a very small arb but imagine that you could bet at 10 with a bookie and lay at 9.3, yout thoughts were right but the comm would eat it up at such a small arb.

[thetank]

Sounds like fun, I'll look into it.

[thetank]

Yes, yes lots of fun. (I've made a spreadsheet  )

Backing at 9.4 with 5% commision on winning is the same as backing at 8.98 with no commision

Laying at 9.3 with 5% commision on winnings is the same as laying at 9.74 (to 2dp) with no commision

Now this is tons of fun, I can plug a price from Betfair into my spreadsheet and get the real price after commision has been taken into consideration.

I'm off to look for that arbitage stuff now. If I find some within 6 months, I'll be sure to check back and tell you all how to make a guaranteed 20p.

Any suggestions on good bookmakers/betting exchanges to look at. At the moment I'm just trawling Betfair and Betdaq.

[thetank]

My spreadsheet is telling me that, with the following prices before commision.....

If you can Lay at 9.3, to make any money, you'd need to be able to back at 10.2 or greater.

Similarly, if you can back at 9.4, you'd need to be able to lay at 8.5 or less to make dosh.



Just so you all know, I have been playing poker aswell. I haven't been at this exclusively for 3 hours. 

[Karabiner]

Remember that only the profit is taxed, the stake is exempt.

[tikay]

Tank has to re-format his spreadsheet now!

[thetank]

Remember that only the profit is taxed, the stake is exempt.

I assumed this in the original spreadsheet thankfully, so no need to reformat.

It seemed like common sense. A commision on the stake when laying, or backing at a really short price, would mean that you'd get taxed for a greater amount than your winnings.

[Karabiner]

Well when betting shops charged tax on bets they taxed the whole amount, stake and profit.

So just wanted to make sure that you weren't working on that principle.