Exit from stars 100 rebuy 16th

[Pab]

OK the following hand is bugging me and would like your thoughts

The bubble has just burst in the 100 rebuy on stars with $17k for the winner.

I was chip leader, raising a lot of hands before the bubble, but took a hit when my JJ didnt hold vs KQ.

The guy who i play the pot with is stinger88, an instructor at cardrunners.com and someone who i have played a lot of tournaments with on UB. He is an agressive player and i have already laid down the last time he re-raised me. Here is the hand


PokerStars Game #5237577475: Tournament #26171629, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit -
Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2006/06/12 - 23:06:57 (ET)
Table '26171629 15' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: jasonkobe (39624 in chips)
Seat 3: r0bi25 (62750 in chips)
Seat 4: lilholdem954 (56250 in chips)
Seat 5: beck_AA (62380 in chips)
Seat 6: Paolo69 (87448 in chips)
Seat 7: $tinger 88 (122755 in chips)
Seat 8: JOEYTHEB (55430 in chips)
Seat 9: The Shrike (25189 in chips)
jasonkobe: posts the ante 150
r0bi25: posts the ante 150
lilholdem954: posts the ante 150
beck_AA: posts the ante 150
Paolo69: posts the ante 150
$tinger 88: posts the ante 150
JOEYTHEB: posts the ante 150
The Shrike: posts the ante 150
JOEYTHEB: posts small blind 1500
The Shrike: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Paolo69 [ ]
kustud [observer] said, "ARGENTINA all the WAY"
jasonkobe: folds
r0bi25: folds
lilholdem954: folds
beck_AA: folds
Paolo69: raises 5500 to 8500
jasonkobe said, "RONALDINHO"
$tinger 88: raises 15500 to 24000
JOEYTHEB: folds
The Shrike: folds
Paolo69: raises 63298 to 87298 and is all-in
$tinger 88: calls 63298
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "hold!"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
*** TURN *** [ ] []
jsup [observer] said, "q"
Rejas_87 [observer] said, "SHIP IT"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
lilholdem954 said, "huge flip"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jsup [observer] said, "q"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
jasonkobe said, "gg"
jsup [observer] said, "a"
TTopGun21 [observer] said, "GG"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Paolo69: shows [ ] (a pair of Nines)
$tinger 88: shows [ Ah] (a pair of Aces)
lilholdem954 said, "nh"
jsup [observer] said, "gg"
TTopGun21 [observer] said, "nh"
$tinger 88 collected 180296 from pot
jsup [observer] said, "race ninja"
hockeystud94 [observer] said, "ship it"
$tinger 88 said, "gg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 180296 | Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 2: jasonkobe folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: r0bi25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: lilholdem954 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: beck_AA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Paolo69 showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 7: $tinger 88 (button) showed [ Ah] and won (180296) with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: JOEYTHEB (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: The Shrike (big blind) folded before Flop


When he re-raised me preflop i put him on a medium pair or 2 big cards. My thinking was that i didnt want to see the flop and have to check fold without a 9 on it. I felt he needed at least AA-QQ to call me, maybe AK but he found a call with AQ. IN my opinion this was a really bad call with AQ as he cant beat anything except a bluff, which considering my chip position is not really a viable option. Anyway this pot was for the chip lead and was a bit gutted when he hit, any thoughts appreciated thanks, also if you require anymore information dont hesitate to ask

[Lee]

Personally, i don't like your move all-in with 99. The main reasons for this are:

1 - You have no further control over the hand once you are all-in. You are worried about a middle PP (TT would be included here also?) or a medium to high Ace. You can get to the flop leaving yourself 63k, which is still a big stack and assess from there. Any ace on the flop and any subsequent action from him and may well have got away still in tact. Somewhere between 40-63k left after this hand of you fold is more than workable.

2 - You mentioned that he had already re-raised you, your huge move all in here could well be interpreted as not wanting to take any more shit off him and "swinging your own punch" back. You do not know what read he has on you also, does he know you will do this with 88 99 TT etc. If he does then he's taking a 50/50 in a pot where he is almost guaranteed a massive result if he wins or will have a decent stack if he loses.

3 - The plain simple facts are this (i know it can be situational, but these are raw facts): You are all in with 99 for 87k on blinds of 1500/3000 against the only guy who can send you packing, even if he has KT, KJ, KQ AJ etc. you are taking a 50/50 at a stage whereby you have a stack and don't need to do this yet. This can be countered by not wanting to be blinded away or bullied and wanting to make my mark on the torny etc. however, i just don't see this as the right time.

4 - You are an aggressive successful player, you can easily pick some blinds up and build a stack without risking your torny.

5 - A lot of emphasis at looking at your opponent is whether he is aggressive or not. At this stage i am far more interested in whether he is good enough to laydown AQ to a move like this, personally i have to be very sure he is to make this move with 99, QQ is what i want to be making your move with.

Some of this depends on YOU too, you play good poker and love to win, any player who consciously takes a 50/50 at this stage and is happy with the result either way is fine by me. However, you are not happy which is why you have posted.

In short on what i know about you and how you play, i'd say you got a bit embroiled in a testosterone hand and was a bit unlucky. As poker players we have certain names in our head labelled as "good players". You are one of these people whose name is in my head and i was very interested to read a post by you and also a little surprised if i'm honest, i guess i was thinking good players don't tend to post.

An honest answer to a good poker situation is what i have given, i hope it is seen as just my opinion only and nothing personal if indeed it does read that way.

[matt674]

Personally, i don't like your move all-in with 99. The main reasons for this are:

1 - You have no further control over the hand once you are all-in. You are worried about a middle PP (TT would be included here also?) or a medium to high Ace. You can get to the flop leaving yourself 63k, which is still a big stack and assess from there. Any ace on the flop and any subsequent action from him and may well have got away still in tact. Somewhere between 40-63k left after this hand of you fold is more than workable.

2 - You mentioned that he had already re-raised you, your huge move all in here could well be interpreted as not wanting to take any more shit off him and "swinging your own punch" back. You do not know what read he has on you also, does he know you will do this with 88 99 TT etc. If he does then he's taking a 50/50 in a pot where he is almost guaranteed a massive result if he wins or will have a decent stack if he loses.

3 - The plain simple facts are this (i know it can be situational, but these are raw facts): You are all in with 99 for 87k on blinds of 1500/3000 against the only guy who can send you packing, even if he has KT, KJ, KQ AJ etc. you are taking a 50/50 at a stage whereby you have a stack and don't need to do this yet. This can be countered by not wanting to be blinded away or bullied and wanting to make my mark on the torny etc. however, i just don't see this as the right time.

4 - You are an aggressive successful player, you can easily pick some blinds up and build a stack without risking your torny.

5 - A lot of emphasis at looking at your opponent is whether he is aggressive or not. At this stage i am far more interested in whether he is good enough to laydown AQ to a move like this, personally i have to be very sure he is to make this move with 99, QQ is what i want to be making your move with.

Some of this depends on YOU too, you play good poker and love to win, any player who consciously takes a 50/50 at this stage and is happy with the result either way is fine by me. However, you are not happy which is why you have posted.

In short on what i know about you and how you play, i'd say you got a bit embroiled in a testosterone hand and was a bit unlucky. As poker players we have certain names in our head labelled as "good players". You are one of these people whose name is in my head and i was very interested to read a post by you and also a little surprised if i'm honest, i guess i was thinking good players don't tend to post.

An honest answer to a good poker situation is what i have given, i hope it is seen as just my opinion only and nothing personal if indeed it does read that way.

 

a well thought out full reply

Whatever you do though, dont go anywhere near my thread http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=11164.0 otherwise we wont hear from you again until mid august 

[Pab]

Thanks for the detailed response lee, i know you are very analytical about the game after reading a few of the hardcore poker threads from P4C forum. Everytime i bust out of tournament i always review the situation and see if i could have played it differnetly and usually discuss it with my poker playing friends. I'll try and elaborate on what was going through my head taking the lead from your points:

1 - I didnt want to take the flop out of position in this scenario because if a broadway card flops, i dont want to waste more chips leading at the pot and get raised in if he has hit. Therefore i have to check any flop with AKQ or J on and give him a free license to take the pot away regardless of weather he has the goods or not. For this particualr situation i was debating folding or pushing in.

2 - I had a loose agressive image and had been using my stack around the bubble to slowly build my stack, as had he. I had laid down my hand in the face of a re-raise before but had showed down strong hands when i had taken them all the way. My raise from the cutoff could be any two cards and he knows that, which makes his button re-raising range vv wide IMO. If the roles were reversed and he opened from the cutoff i would be re-raising on the button with a lot of hands, any broadway combination, any pair, suited connectors etc..

3- I know i put 87k in preflop with 99 on blinds of 1500/3000 but i didnt do this lightly, my thinking was a bit more structred that ' pocket pair, all in!' I thought my 3 bet represented huge strength and it was not a regulation call for him mathematically which meant my all in still had a lot of leverage. If he folds he still has 100k stack whereas by calling he was risking going down to 35k ish and been shortstacked forcing him into push/fold mode. By putting the pressure back on him i thought he would only call with AA-QQ and maybe AK. I feel AK may even fold in this spot as he is calling off most of his stack and jepoardising his powerful position in the tournament.

4- thank you, :-)

5 - I really thought he would lay a hand like AQ down as well as some hand that had me crushed, TT, JJ etc.. in this particular situation. I thought the fact that i 3 bet against the chip leader would represent massive strength and my two cards were no longer in my thinking once he had re-raised.


I do play tournamemts to win, and  as we all know, all the good money is in the top 3 spots and IMO playing to win is a key factor in being successful at mtt's. I didnt think i was conciously taking a 50/50 because i didnt do the calling. Once he has made the call and I lose the race that is fair enough. If was in his shoes and had re-raised with AQ i would almost always pass the AQ to a 3rd raise as it is usually crushed to my range.

A lot of 2nd level thinking  and guessing went into this hand and I am possibly guilty of over-complicating things. I play poker in an agressive style and made this move based on my read on the situation more than the face value of my hand.

If the situation arose again against the same player i would still push i believe, but i agree with all the reasons you stated for advocating a fold and obviously you are still in the tournament if you pass.

I will be trying to post more situations from tournaments and cash games to see how peoples perceptions differ from my own

[The Baron]

"I had a loose agressive image and had been using my stack around the bubble to slowly build my stack"

This is the key for me. If you had been getting beaten up for a little while then taking a stand here is spot on IMO especially when you would be taking the flop out of position. (I'm a little shocked at the call by him but as you say he knows you quite well)

However you were clearly having success at picking up chips before the JJ vs KQ scenario and with these blinds I think I'd be passing here in an attempt to reaccumulate.

For me it's a pass when you are playing this well and having success in chip building.

[Lee]

1 - I didnt want to take the flop out of position in this scenario because if a broadway card flops, i dont want to waste more chips leading at the pot and get raised in if he has hit. Therefore i have to check any flop with AKQ or J on and give him a free license to take the pot away regardless of weather he has the goods or not. For this particualr situation i was debating folding or pushing in.

I like playing pots OOP against aggressive players, but we play a different style, i'm more of a trapper, you trample over people. I'm sure you posted recently about not automatically giving your opponent credit for the broadway card that hits (apologies if this was someone else). Your lookout on 99 appears to me that it is something you have to play, but don't really want to. The flop could just as easily come 2 5 8 rainbow.

2 - I had a loose agressive image and had been using my stack around the bubble to slowly build my stack, as had he. I had laid down my hand in the face of a re-raise before but had showed down strong hands when i had taken them all the way. My raise from the cutoff could be any two cards and he knows that, which makes his button re-raising range vv wide IMO. If the roles were reversed and he opened from the cutoff i would be re-raising on the button with a lot of hands, any broadway combination, any pair, suited connectors etc.

"Loose aggressive" may be the reason the hand panned out this way. Your re-raise all in for 63K more could also spell weakness not necessarily strength. Depends how people read things, if you are strong why the hell are you trying to push me out pre-flop? Your all-in can also display 55 66 77 88 99 TT instead of what you wanted to. If im playing you in this hand, i much prefer you to go allin here than call, a call has me much more worried. And if i know you are hard to read, im being faced with a situation where i have to make only one decision to play the hand and i can't be outplayed on the flop.

3- I know i put 87k in preflop with 99 on blinds of 1500/3000 but i didnt do this lightly, my thinking was a bit more structred that ' pocket pair, all in!' I thought my 3 bet represented huge strength and it was not a regulation call for him mathematically which meant my all in still had a lot of leverage. If he folds he still has 100k stack whereas by calling he was risking going down to 35k ish and been shortstacked forcing him into push/fold mode. By putting the pressure back on him i thought he would only call with AA-QQ and maybe AK. I feel AK may even fold in this spot as he is calling off most of his stack and jepoardising his powerful position in the tournament.

As above the move which you think shows great strength can also be read as weak by certain players. You've already built up a reputation of a good player and aggressive in this torny, you might just be pulling off the hardest move in poker (re-bluff) which would be well within your reach. Also if he has AA KK QQ JJ TT AK AQ AJ AT (this would be the only holdings he will do this with IMO) and more importantly if he does have you beat, your all-in leaves you with no movement at all. In essence its a raise that will only get called if its 50/50 at worst or has you beat and in big trouble. Against the only guy who can crack you, i personally don't think this is wise. Whether he's played awesome poker or been very lucky OR BOTH, i still don't like the idea of putting hours of work on the line, where i'm in a great position with 99.

4- thank you, :-)

The truth.

5 - I really thought he would lay a hand like AQ down as well as some hand that had me crushed, TT, JJ etc.. in this particular situation. I thought the fact that i 3 bet against the chip leader would represent massive strength and my two cards were no longer in my thinking once he had re-raised.

I do play tournamemts to win, and  as we all know, all the good money is in the top 3 spots and IMO playing to win is a key factor in being successful at mtt's. I didnt think i was conciously taking a 50/50 because i didnt do the calling. Once he has made the call and I lose the race that is fair enough. If was in his shoes and had re-raised with AQ i would almost always pass the AQ to a 3rd raise as it is usually crushed to my range.

If you think he will lay down AQ, then i have no problem with the move, but you have to be prepared (when you go allin) that if you are called at very very very best you will be 50/50. Many people will call for a 50/50 rather than just raise for it if called etc. AQ is still an awesome hand in some peoples eyes.

A lot of 2nd level thinking and guessing went into this hand and I am possibly guilty of over-complicating things. I play poker in an agressive style and made this move based on my read on the situation more than the face value of my hand. If the situation arose again against the same player i would still push i believe, but i agree with all the reasons you stated for advocating a fold and obviously you are still in the tournament if you pass. I will be trying to post more situations from tournaments and cash games to see how peoples perceptions differ from my own.

Its a good situation to discuss for sure, (for me) with your ability, after having displayed your aggression already and more than confident that you are good enough to lay a hand down and build back up, i think moving all in with 99 for this amount of chips is throwing a lifeline to your competitors and is not optimum play. You are far too good to be playing pots of this size OOP with 99 IMO at this stage in the torny. Our styles of play will probably never agree on hands like this though and thats the beauty of poker i guess.

[marcro]

Wow - very good posting above guys.  I would rate his call with AQ as a bad one but he obviously was prepared to gamble and got lucky.  I also share the sentiment in risking your stack when the blinds were relatively small to the size of your stack was questionable.

[The Camel]

An excellent move by you and a terrible call by the guy.

If you looking just to make the final you should pass, if you playing to win you should make the move you did. You cannot let people continually bully you.

What was the name of the site where he is a teacher again? I advise everyone to avoid it like the plague!

[TightEnd]

Great thread


Delighted to see you on here Pab, please post more


I'm certain he shouldn't have found a call there with AQ, and you needed to feel in your own mind that you weren't laying down too often. Perhaps this psychological aspect led you to push when you had no need to.


Also if his calling range includes 10 10 and up I personally would have pushed with more than

[Lee]

An excellent move by you and a terrible call by the guy.

If you looking just to make the final you should pass, if you playing to win you should make the move you did. You cannot let people continually bully you.

What was the name of the site where he is a teacher again? I advise everyone to avoid it like the plague!

Sounds a bit clear cut Camel, this guy had moved Pab off a pot ONCE and he prob had the best of it anyway. "Continually" and "once" are hardly connected. Pab would certainly not get bullied, especially with his stack and that is the whole point in the timing on this, Pab can be the bully, not the bullied (and he often is if you watch him). If his opponent lays down AK, AQ or TT, then yes i agree its an excellent move, however he didn't. This guy either read Pab perfect and wanted to race with him, didn't believe him at all or miss clicked, either way this isn't excellent, as the read was that the player would only call with AA KK QQ or AK.

Sometimes the apparent perfect move just isn't perfect as the opponent has to be perfect too. Much the same as trying to move a kipper off a flush draw and when he hits still paying him off, cos you can't believe he made the call. Picking your opponents, your timing and a little bit of luck are all parts in making an "excellent" play.

Second in chips, 30 Big Blinds, 99 OOP and been moved off one pot by CL, whereas he's probably taken 15 others uncontested. I can hardly see that situation being a "one move only" hand. After 2/3/4/5/6 hours play, however long, i'd rather minimise my risk personally having built up to a great position. At this stage, (I THINK THIS IS VERY PERTINENT HERE) there will be enough chips flying around anyway as the bubble has just burst.

Pab, just out of interest, if he said to you i have AQ and then raised all in, what would your move be? In other words would you take the race at this stage, or given the play that you have and the situation you found yourself in, would you wait?

[Pab]

I agree the decision wasnt clear cut lee. The facts of the hand is that i put 87k in preflop with the BB at 3k with 99 (a medium pair)

The 2nd level thinking is what made the hand a focal point for me, because in these tournaments, the $100 rebuy's etc..,  the quality of the field is that good that you cant just play ABC by the book poker and expect to make final tables and top 3 finishes with any great success rate.

As i have stated on the information i had i felt he needed a top 4 hand to make the call, and his range including far more than that in my opinion which is why i made the % play. If he has AA etc.. then so be out im out of the tournament barring a miracle.


As for the last question, if i have raised you re-raise all in and say i have AQ would i call? Yes, i have chips already invested in the pot and i now know i am the favourite to win the hand ( small i know) but a favourite nevertheless and would be willing to risk my tournament life to go into the last 15 with a huge chip lead.

I know some theory would argue against the call in this point, tournament strategy for advanced players by skalanksy etc.. However in my opinion that literature is a little dated now as it doesnt account the high number of very good ultra agressive players which make some of those strategy's obselete

[Lee]

I agree the decision wasnt clear cut lee. The facts of the hand is that i put 87k in preflop with the BB at 3k with 99 (a medium pair)

The 2nd level thinking is what made the hand a focal point for me, because in these tournaments, the $100 rebuy's etc..,  the quality of the field is that good that you cant just play ABC by the book poker and expect to make final tables and top 3 finishes with any great success rate.

As i have stated on the information i had i felt he needed a top 4 hand to make the call, and his range including far more than that in my opinion which is why i made the % play. If he has AA etc.. then so be out im out of the tournament barring a miracle.


As for the last question, if i have raised you re-raise all in and say i have AQ would i call? Yes, i have chips already invested in the pot and i now know i am the favourite to win the hand ( small i know) but a favourite nevertheless and would be willing to risk my tournament life to go into the last 15 with a huge chip lead.

I know some theory would argue against the call in this point, tournament strategy for advanced players by skalanksy etc.. However in my opinion that literature is a little dated now as it doesnt account the high number of very good ultra agressive players which make some of those strategy's obselete

I think this has turned into a really good thread with some real thought provoking.

It's sometimes hard to put yourself into a particular situation and decide exactly what you would do. My initial thought with your stack and the blinds still ok, is to try and get chips off the mid stacks and leave the CL and the short stacks alone unless of course i have something which has to be played. I find the mid stacks are the easiest target here as they are keeping one eye on the prizes and also not wanting to bust out before the shortstacks. People with 35k here are my target.

I guess my ideal situation would to play 2 pots where i'm 70/30 against someone with 24-40k, however the maths of this shows that to win 2 x 70/30's is 49%, which is less than the edge you took into this hand. However, if i lose one of these 70/30's then i am still in the torny. For me, this decision is neutral, i don't think there is a right or wrong and the decision you take, is down to your style.

As you say, if you win this pot, then it would almost guarantee a top 3 position for you and probably much better than that.

As for books, i had SS bought for me which i read 8 or 9 pages and then got bored. I think i have read 4 books in my whole life, none poker related. Anything i have learnt or am learning is off forums like this or by the hard way - losing money. When a player like yourself, who i consider to be more consistent and successful than me, posts about a hand and his thoughts, i always see this as some of the most valuable info you can get. Have i learnt something from this, most definitely yes and for that i guess i have to say thanks.

In the scenario where he tells you what he has, then deciding to take 99 into AQ does not have a right or wrong answer for me and the important thing is that the player who is calling knows why and what he is calling. I would also call with 99 if he told me he has AQ if i have already invested into the pot, however if he was Button and i was BB and he went all in telling me, i would not call with 99. This decision is based on my stack and how well i think i can do, with 87k and nothing invested in a pot, i'm looking for a better situation than a 50/50. Whereas with 50-60k i would probably make the call. The old cliche "Risk Vs Reward".

The top 3 errors i see made in poker are:

1 - Rag Aces
2 - Chasing flush and straight draws
3 - Deciding to gamble at a stage where it is too late

Point 3 here is the most important for me and is one of the keys to successful WINNING tournament play. It's so important to take the gamble when it will mean something if you win. So many times people will fold KQs (with say 24k) where they are likely to be 40/60 behind, then they will take a gamble with a pair of 5's, 20 minutes later (when their stack has dwindled to 12k) which if they win, will only get them back to where they were with KQs. They then need to take another 50/50 to get to 50k, which would be the original target. Winning 2 x 50/50's is only 25%, whereas the KQs was 40% and more importantly they both get you back into the same situation. I think this area is the single most important thing to get your head round if you want to change "just scraping into the money" into winning tornies.

Time is very rarely spoke about either, value your time. Any minute you waste in your life, will never be recouped. Hanging on for an hour in a torny and then finally having to push with A7 off is much better being replaced by taking KQs against AJ an hour before, whereby if you win, you are in great spot. There are few poker players who wouldn't replace 15 "scrape into the monies" with a 1st and 3rd place and busting out in the other 13, if you spoke to them, however watch them play and you will see something completely different. As you draw near the money, its very easy to slip into the "i'll just get a place first, then i'll gamble". 80% of the players around you are thinking the same!

[SupaMonkey]

Great thread.

When i think a player reraising me is 'at it' i prefer the stop n go as opposed to the three bet here. Depending on my read of the player i would move in on the flop even if an ace comes, but i think you probably had him on an ace and would have check-folded on this flop.

My question is; you said you would check fold if a K-Q-J fell, i don't understand why.? He is probably at it and there is less than a 1/6 chance he has TPTK (i.e. he has an ace but has missed that and there is only a 1/6 chance he has hit his kicker). I think that his calling range is narrower if use this play as opposed to 3 betting all in preflop. Do you dis/agree?

[Josh]

Point 3 here is the most important for me and is one of the keys to successful WINNING tournament play. It's so important to take the gamble when it will mean something if you win. So many times people will fold KQs (with say 24k) where they are likely to be 40/60 behind, then they will take a gamble with a pair of 5's, 20 minutes later (when their stack has dwindled to 12k) which if they win, will only get them back to where they were with KQs. They then need to take another 50/50 to get to 50k, which would be the original target. Winning 2 x 50/50's is only 25%, whereas the KQs was 40% and more importantly they both get you back into the same situation. I think this area is the single most important thing to get your head round if you want to change "just scraping into the money" into winning tornies.

Time is very rarely spoke about either, value your time. Any minute you waste in your life, will never be recouped. Hanging on for an hour in a torny and then finally having to push with A7 off is much better being replaced by taking KQs against AJ an hour before, whereby if you win, you are in great spot. There are few poker players who wouldn't replace 15 "scrape into the monies" with a 1st and 3rd place and busting out in the other 13, if you spoke to them, however watch them play and you will see something completely different. As you draw near the money, its very easy to slip into the "i'll just get a place first, then i'll gamble". 80% of the players around you are thinking the same!

Interesting post, but you can't really just weigh up those percentages you used can you?
Wouldn't you have to account for the extra number of hands folding king,queen gave you, the possible percentages of being dealt aces/kings/queens or a better hand etc, and the percentage chance of said hands winning?

Just an opinion, I find it slightly amusing that so many moves can be either deemed advanced play or muppet/fish-esuqe, purely on how the player justifies what they were thinking.
Surely making a crap move is no worse than making a crap move which you justified on a read/bet/style of play.

Thirdly I don't like Camels. I just bought a pack as the shop didn't have my brand and they taste funny.

[action man]

what a great thread really enjoyed reading through it. even though poker is my only source of income, i am not yet on the same level as players like pab and seemingly leehak, as i have only recently started playing the big multi's on other sites than tribbeca where the $200 stt's and the smaller comps were my income.
 
my take on the hand is, that pab thought (rightly so that the player could ONLY with AA KK QQ or AK) in this spot however i gotta put you on KK. with AA i expect you to Flat call his re-raise and check to him on the flop!  so i think it is possible for him to lay QQ down as he Knows he doesnt want to DOUBLE you up as he must know the quality player you are.

He KNOWS that you don't really want to be messing about with him at this stage of the comp. I feel that pab made this move almost certain his opponent would fold, and the % chance of his opponent having a calling hand are very small. Imo AK is a pass here let alone AQ.

I feel his call with AQ and giving you the chance to double  up and drop him to 35k and put a good player like you in a great position is ridiculous.

I feel if you make this move everytime in the same situation you win the pot at least 85% of the time pre-flop and from the 15% left probably another 3-5% so i see you as having a 88% to 90% chance of winning this pot after youve made your re-re-re raise