Comments please

[M3boy]

I have nicked this from another "well known" forum but would like to see what other people think and to see if it is the same as my thoughts.

1) Call /fold
2) What hand do you put the other guy on and why

"This hand is from a while ago, but it still gives me nightmares. It's recalled from memory too, so forgive me if some figures are slightly out.

5/10nl (edited to add full-ring). Villain has just under $3k, and I cover. Main villain is an unknown who hasn't gotten out of line much during our session.

I'm dealt AA on the small blind. Middle position (villain) raises to $30. Three callers, and I raise it $150 more. Villain and button call.

Pot is around $600, and we see a rainbow flop of K-9-2.

I lead for $450.. villain calls, and button folds.

Turn is a brick. I check, and villain insta-pushes all-in to the $1.5k pot for around $2k.

Your move.. "

(Apologies if I have done something wrong in posting this)

[londonpokergirl]

i'd call and fingers crossed they've just got kq or kj and not a set

[Div]

The pre-flop raise implies a fairly strong hand which makes 99 less likely and 22 unlikely.

The question then is how would they have played KK pre-flop. Stuck in a re-reraise, or called with position on you?

If they have flopped top set would they really stick it all in on the turn, with a slight overbet, rather than checking and giving you the chance of bluffing at the river?

Having thought about it, I think the percentages favour a call, with the hope(and a degree of expectation) you are up against AK, and a much smaller possibility he might have AA too!

Overall it seems like calling here is long term profitable, unless you have a totally solid read on the opponent that he has made a set.

[boldie]

The pre-flop raise implies a fairly strong hand which makes 99 less likely and 22 unlikely.

The question then is how would they have played KK pre-flop. Stuck in a re-reraise, or called with position on you?

If they have flopped top set would they really stick it all in on the turn, with a slight overbet, rather than checking and giving you the chance of bluffing at the river?

Having thought about it, I think the percentages favour a call, with the hope(and a degree of expectation) you are up against AK, and a much smaller possibility he might have AA too!

Overall it seems like calling here is long term profitable, unless you have a totally solid read on the opponent that he has made a set.

yep that's how I read it...this is a call for me as I'm going to assume he's holding the old AK. If he had pocket 9's or twos his raise pre-flop would either have been bigger (incase of 9's I'm guessing 50 -60 as the BB is ten incase of KK around the same as he wants Ace rag out)) or smaller..(limp with the 2's)..the guy is holding AK most likely and therefore it's a call from boldie every time...(unless the guy is the rock of all rocks and he's only been playing Q's or higher)

[GlasgowBandit]

I'm pushing it all in here as well.

I'd also agree his likely holding is AK, KJ, KQ, AQ. 

[M3boy]

TY all

I thought AK as well and would call.

Even possibly have 10 10 J J and thinks that you are scared of the K as you bet the flop but checked the turn.

Personally I would of bet the turn enough to committ myself to the pot so that if he pushed, I wouldnt need to spare a thought about calling.

Like I siad, this was "someone" else's hand story.

[GlasgowBandit]

Do we know what happened M?

[Bazzaboy]

I like the check on the turn here on a non-scary board (I'm not a cash game player though) as it lets him make that move with hands you are beating eg AK, KQ, QQ, JJ etc. I'd be insta calling his push.

[M3boy]

Do we know what happened M?

Yes, the guy in question passed to the all in bet - never found out exactly what the other guy had

[Div]

I like the check on the turn here on a non-scary board (I'm not a cash game player though) as it lets him make that move with hands you are beating eg AK, KQ, QQ, JJ etc. I'd be insta calling his push.

Wahey, I agree with Bazza. The main point of checking  here is probably to induce the bluff, though you  have to accept that every so often (maybe 1 in 5) you are beat to a set or a very unlikely 2-pair(but they were suited!).