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Poker Hand Analysis
Would you call or fold?
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Topic: Would you call or fold? (Read 1752 times)
snoopy1239
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Posts: 33034
Would you call or fold?
«
on:
August 28, 2006, 12:40:06 AM »
***** Hand History for Game 5036477578 *****
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: shepdogs ( $193.50 )
Seat 5: Zcrat ( $1138 )
Seat 3: snoopy1239 ( $384.63 )
Seat 6: MrWallace ( $101.89 )
Seat 4: englishvalleybnb ( $453 )
Seat 2: EASY_ONE ( $286.30 )
englishvalleybnb posts small blind [$2].
Zcrat posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to snoopy1239 [
]
MrWallace folds.
shepdogs calls [$4].
EASY_ONE folds.
snoopy1239 raises [$18].
englishvalleybnb folds.
Zcrat calls [$14].
shepdogs calls [$14].
** Dealing Flop ** [
,
,
]
Zcrat checks.
shepdogs checks.
snoopy1239 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [
]
Zcrat bets [$20].
shepdogs raises [$40].
snoopy1239 calls [$40].
Zcrat folds.
** Dealing River ** [
]
shepdogs is all-In [$135.50]
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The Camel
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #1 on:
August 28, 2006, 01:02:55 AM »
Think you have to fold Snoopy my boy.
Minimum raise on the turn smells like a big hand in this spot, trying to reopen the betting for the guy who bet $20 to repop him.
If he did have a "different" big hand on the turn ie a set or top two he got there as well.
Looking at the hand an interesting play you could have made would have been another minimum reraise on the turn. If either player rerereraises you can safely fold then I think without the stress of facing a big river bet.
Edit: Just saw you turned the flush draw too. The minimum reraise idea is pants in that case. You need to see the river as cheaply as possible...
«
Last Edit: August 28, 2006, 01:05:20 AM by The Camel
»
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thetank
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #2 on:
August 28, 2006, 06:08:01 AM »
I reckon you're beat 4 times out of 5.
It's a fold for me.
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Raindogs
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #3 on:
August 28, 2006, 12:28:58 PM »
I'm confused by the all-in on the end. If he had the house or a Q high straight why chase you out of the pot ?
He limped in early position. Would he have limped in with TT or 99 at a 6 handed table ? He then called a decent raise and checked the turn with a flush draw on the flop. If he had flopped a set this would be consistent with him trying to check raise you. If he had A9 or AT he may also have been trying to trap but would he do this with a flush draw on the board ? Checking with QJ would also be a likely play with an open ended straight draw. If he has a bare A he may be checking to see what you do and to try and keep the pot small but I would expect someone with a weak A to make a bet here to see where they were.
When you checked the flop he may take it that you don't have an A. With a flush draw on the board and having raised pre flop why would you check if you had an A ? When the 8 c comes on the turn he makes a min re-raise. If he had a set or a Q high straight this would make sense but why the min raise when there are 2 flush draws out there. If he had 2 pair would he make such a small raise with such a vunerable hand ? He could also have the A c with a weak club kicker giving him top pair with a flush draw, he may also be trying a semi bluff in the belief that nobody has shown much strength. Raising in this spot should drive you out of the pot if you don't have an A and will probably get him a free showdown on the river if his flush draw doesn't hit.
His all in bet on the river is strange. There is $154 in the pot and he has $135 left. You flat called his small turn raise so I can't see how he can put you on an A given the way the hand played out (unless you had AA). Why go all in with a strong hand unless you are trying to represent a bluff ?
My guess is he min re-raised the turn with an A and a flush draw in the expectation you would fold, having checked the flop, and hoping to get a free showdown if his flush draw missed. His river bet is still strange if he has a set of A's, but given that he has less than the pot left he may feel that if he represents a bluff he may get called if you have a pair. If he has a monster and he has you on trip A's he knows it will be difficult for you to fold to his Q high straight or house. Or he may have a busted flush and is trying to push you off the pot.
I would call this but then again I am currently showing a loss in my NL cash games. The above analysis may explain why.
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ifm
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #4 on:
August 28, 2006, 01:10:30 PM »
The bet on the river makes perfect sense to me, he would have at least one player on AX and so a push here will maximise any win if he indeed does have a very big hand.
I too am wary of the minraise on the turn and absolutely terrified of the river bet, i don't play cash too much but i know i'd play a big hand like he has so i fold.
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Nem
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #5 on:
August 28, 2006, 01:12:33 PM »
Anyone push turn?
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Scottish Dave
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #6 on:
August 28, 2006, 02:48:13 PM »
if its a tourney fold, if its a cash game call, if he has the boat or quads, take it on the chin and reload. its only 1 session
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boldie
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #7 on:
August 29, 2006, 03:06:28 PM »
Quote from: Scottish Dave on August 28, 2006, 02:48:13 PM
if its a tourney fold, if its a cash game call, if he has the boat or quads, take it on the chin and reload. its only 1 session
I might fold here...you don't have the nut straight and I dfon't like this situation one bit to be honest.I reckon the guy has JQ.
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bolt pp
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #8 on:
August 29, 2006, 03:26:33 PM »
Snoopy, what did they have then on this hand and the 9j hand?
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ACE2M
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Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #9 on:
August 29, 2006, 03:30:14 PM »
very tricky situation, if it were deeper stacks i'd fold but would be tempted here. His bets indicate strentgh although he doesn't exactly value bet the end which i find suspicious. I could definately see this being a busted inside straight and straight flush draw. Possibly trip aces but i doubt it.
call
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snoopy1239
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Posts: 33034
Re: Would you call or fold?
«
Reply #10 on:
August 30, 2006, 02:42:10 AM »
I have no idea what he had. I folded and he didn't show.
I let the whole time go down before folding, but I'm happy with my deicision and the way in which I played the hand.
I agree with the Camel, the reraise on the turn showed a lot of strength and I seriously expected Q-J, especially after limp calling preflop and checking the flop in front of me.
The flush draw on the turn resulted in me flat-calling the 40 though. If he's got the straight, I'd rather see the river for cheap rather than get all the money in here. If he's got top two pair or a set, then I can see what he does on the river before either calling or making a value bet.
I folded on the river because if he doesn't have the straight, then I'm pretty sure he's made his boat. Too many hands have me beat: J-Q, A-8, A-9, A-T, 9-9, T-T, 8-8 (all hands that he could limp call preflop, check the flop, and min-raise the turn with). If he has just an Ace, then I'd expect him to check into me incase I have a bigger one, especailly considering my raise preflop, but I'd be surprised if he had A-J, A-Q, or A-K as he didn't raise preflop.
«
Last Edit: August 30, 2006, 02:47:37 AM by snoopy1239
»
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