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Poker Hand Analysis
AK late on
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Topic: AK late on (Read 10619 times)
ACE2M
Hero Member
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Posts: 7832
AK late on
«
on:
October 18, 2006, 10:06:24 AM »
tournament example
Blinds at 1500/3000 antes 150, 30 players left from a field of 600
You hold
in the SB with a stack of 85,000, average about 45,000.
The cutoff + 1 raises to 12,000, he has a stack 100,000. Player is solid but not super tight, a raise would mean some sort of hand.
On the last circuit he put in a raise in the same position and you stole it from him with an all in push when you were slightly shorter stacked with around 63,000.
BB has 32,000 and has been very tight, money started at 45.
Your move? and why.......
«
Last Edit: October 18, 2006, 10:08:45 AM by ACE2M
»
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boldie
Hero Member
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Don't make me mad
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #1 on:
October 18, 2006, 10:49:25 AM »
hmm tricky. How has the BB been playing when he's on the BB? If he is prone to folding after a raise and is one of the few that does so the raiser might have his BB marked and that's why he's raising.
I might be thinking all in again. He's folded to you before because he doesn't want to risk a massive part of his stack.
The money has already started, is there a massive jump between say 30 and 20-24? If there isn't then it's all in from me as I would now be playing to win the tourney and opening up my game, start making some more agressive moves and all that.
If there is a fair jump after 20 and you would be more then happy with the cash that would mean then I would fold as you should have plenty of chips left to make it to that stage without getting yourself into real trouble.
Essentially it's a money desicion....All-in from me (especially as he's folded to that before..that's always a big help) but you would be more than justified in folding here.
edit* didn't even mention the flatcall option...which i should have. at this stage I don't like to flatcall with AK because he might not pay you off when you hit. (IOW if the Ace or King comes on the flop and he's got J's or some hand he'll fold to you unless he's hit trips) I am not against being in a race against a lower pair (lower then your K) at this stage as this would mean you double your chips and could win the thing. If he folds to you then that's fine to your all-in that's great to as you'd be establishing dominance over him and he'll be much more reluctant to raise again knowing that you aren't scared to stick them all if he makes it worth your while.
«
Last Edit: October 18, 2006, 10:57:23 AM by boldie
»
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GlasgowBandit
Hero Member
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Posts: 5646
Global Pacifier
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #2 on:
October 18, 2006, 10:50:22 AM »
I flat call, here. i want to see a flop as cheap as possible.
You have the cut off on a fairly decent hand whats the range? 99 - JJ or bigger again?
Once I see a flop I can re-evaluate my options. But if your putting matey on a QQ, KK, AA, you can pass. But he may well have AK or AQ in this situation as well.
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #3 on:
October 18, 2006, 10:54:41 AM »
Quote from: boldie on October 18, 2006, 10:49:25 AM
hmm tricky. How has the BB been playing when he's on the BB? If he is prone to folding after a raise and is one of the few that does so the raiser might have his BB marked and that's why he's raising.
I might be thinking all in again. He's folded to you before because he doesn't want to risk a massive part of his stack.
The money has already started, is there a massive jump between say 30 and 20-24? If there isn't then it's all in from me as I would now be playing to win the tourney and opening up my game, start making some more agressive moves and all that.
If there is a fair jump after 20 and you would be more then happy with the cash that would mean then I would fold as you should have plenty of chips left to make it to that stage without getting yourself into real trouble.
Essentially it's a money desicion....All-in from me (especially as he's folded to that before..that's always a big help) but you would be more than justified in folding here.
Peter Two Gears - All in or fold
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boldie
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #4 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:00:00 AM »
lol...yeah that's why I editted the post...I went to the toilet and thought (I do my best thinking there)..."hey, flatcalling might be an option" lol...then I discarded that but thought I'd post why
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tantrum
K2o
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #5 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:01:28 AM »
I don't usually move all in with AK/AQ when squeezed between bigger stack and short one and my stack is of decent size. Re-raise can be effective and safer option if you want to get rid off BB, if cut off comes over the top, then you have a tough decision to make but you can let go of your AK safely. Flat call the raise is another safe option but as you are out of position your choices of play on the flop will depend on the read of your opponent.
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boldie
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #6 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:05:52 AM »
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 11:01:28 AM
I don't usually move all in with AK/AQ when squeezed between bigger stack and short one and my stack is of decent size. Re-raise can be effective and safer option if you want to get rid off BB, if cut off comes over the top, then you have a tough decision to make but you can let go of your AK safely. Flat call the raise is another safe option but as you are out of position your choices of play on the flop will depend on the read of your opponent.
fair point...but how much would you re-raise? If you re-raise another 12-16k raiser is likely to call or go over the top as that shouldn't scare him off with that stack (Lord knows I would ask you to stick all your chips in the middle if I was him). If you reraise another 25-36k you have half your stack in there and (with a running ante) thing will get a bit tight if you don't find a hand fairly soon as you only have 10x the BB left.
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #7 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:11:42 AM »
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 11:01:28 AM
I don't usually move all in with AK/AQ when squeezed between bigger stack and short one and my stack is of decent size. Re-raise can be effective and safer option if you want to get rid off BB, if cut off comes over the top, then you have a tough decision to make but you can let go of your AK safely. Flat call the raise is another safe option but as you are out of position your choices of play on the flop will depend on the read of your opponent.
At this stage of the tourny for me its all about chip management, you are well above average so no need to risk loosing all your chips. If you can get to see the flop then its a bonus.
If the BB pushes and the cut-off calls. Then I think this is when your decision is tough, I think the Cut off's position becomes stronger, I would suspect that he has a big hand at this point. But to the same extent your really priced into a call and this is when you risk loosing a fair whack of your stack if not all of it.
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boldie
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #8 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:14:41 AM »
Quote from: GlasgowBandit on October 18, 2006, 11:11:42 AM
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 11:01:28 AM
I don't usually move all in with AK/AQ when squeezed between bigger stack and short one and my stack is of decent size. Re-raise can be effective and safer option if you want to get rid off BB, if cut off comes over the top, then you have a tough decision to make but you can let go of your AK safely. Flat call the raise is another safe option but as you are out of position your choices of play on the flop will depend on the read of your opponent.
At this stage of the tourny for me its all about chip management, you are well above average so no need to risk loosing all your chips. If you can get to see the flop then its a bonus.
If the BB pushes and the cut-off calls. Then I think this is when your decision is tough, I think the Cut off's position becomes stronger, I would suspect that he has a big hand at this point. But to the same extent your really priced into a call and this is when you risk loosing a fair whack of your stack if not all of it.
actually..if the BB pushes and the raiser calls you decision is fairly simple...it's a fold every time in that situation for me. BB MUST have a hand to reraise a raise (4x BB) from a guy in that position + a caller, as he will always get called by one of them and he knows this.. and if UTg +1 calls you should be way behind.
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #9 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:17:11 AM »
Quote from: boldie on October 18, 2006, 11:05:52 AM
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 11:01:28 AM
I don't usually move all in with AK/AQ when squeezed between bigger stack and short one and my stack is of decent size. Re-raise can be effective and safer option if you want to get rid off BB, if cut off comes over the top, then you have a tough decision to make but you can let go of your AK safely. Flat call the raise is another safe option but as you are out of position your choices of play on the flop will depend on the read of your opponent.
fair point...but how much would you re-raise? If you re-raise another 12-16k raiser is likely to call or go over the top as that shouldn't scare him off with that stack (Lord knows I would ask you to stick all your chips in the middle if I was him). If you reraise another 25-36k you have half your stack in there and (with a running ante) thing will get a bit tight if you don't find a hand fairly soon as you only have 10x the BB left.
If I RR in this position which is highly unlikely then I make it another 20k to go. I try thinking about it from mateys perspective and I am thinking to myself I stick in a raise, I have position on this guy and I have more chips. What has he got? What can I beat?
Althought I really am going safety first. Then the flop comes K K 5 ohh happy days!
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #10 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:23:13 AM »
Quote from: boldie on October 18, 2006, 11:14:41 AM
Quote from: GlasgowBandit on October 18, 2006, 11:11:42 AM
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 11:01:28 AM
I don't usually move all in with AK/AQ when squeezed between bigger stack and short one and my stack is of decent size. Re-raise can be effective and safer option if you want to get rid off BB, if cut off comes over the top, then you have a tough decision to make but you can let go of your AK safely. Flat call the raise is another safe option but as you are out of position your choices of play on the flop will depend on the read of your opponent.
At this stage of the tourny for me its all about chip management, you are well above average so no need to risk loosing all your chips. If you can get to see the flop then its a bonus.
If the BB pushes and the cut-off calls. Then I think this is when your decision is tough, I think the Cut off's position becomes stronger, I would suspect that he has a big hand at this point. But to the same extent your really priced into a call and this is when you risk loosing a fair whack of your stack if not all of it.
actually..if the BB pushes and the raiser calls you decision is fairly simple...it's a fold every time in that situation for me. BB MUST have a hand to reraise a raise (4x BB) from a guy in that position + a caller, as he will always get called by one of them and he knows this.. and if UTg +1 calls you should be way behind.
The BB could have any two though Balde and may feel that by pushing in an extra 20k he can get two players off. More importantly though for me if the BB pushes original raiser calls there is 82 k in the middle and its only 20 k to call to peel off a flop I think I am priced in to making the call, feck it at this point I may even RR and stick it all in now and put our original raiser to the test!
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kvnstv
A bit of a plum
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Posts: 231
Jesse May called, he wants his hair back.
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #11 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:24:28 AM »
From the raiser's perspective what shows more strength?
1.) A Shove.
2.) A flat call.
3.) A reraise of X2 his raise.
Id say option 1 looks like AK/AQ to me in this spot and he might take a shot with a mid pair for two reasons A.) You have done this to him before. B.) his not very good.
2.) A flat call here would worry me but I either hit the flop or I don’t and can make a C bet for about 16K and still get away.
3.) This looks very strong like you want me to play. I think you put me in shove or fold mode
«
Last Edit: October 18, 2006, 11:26:19 AM by kvnstv
»
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ACE2M
Hero Member
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #12 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:28:43 AM »
How much does the fact that he made the same raise from the same position with a poor result on the last circuit affect your decision?
Is it likely that he would significantly reduce his raising range when i am in the blinds considering the last circuit?
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boldie
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #13 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:31:44 AM »
Quote from: ACE2M on October 18, 2006, 11:28:43 AM
How much does the fact that he made the same raise from the same position with a poor result on the last circuit affect your decision?
Is it likely that he would significantly reduce his raising range when i am in the blinds considering the last circuit?
oh that definetly helps for me....however...the question you should also ask is
Is it likely he thinks YOU would significantly reduce your raising range considering last circuit. (IOW...will he be thinking you're at it because you got away with it last time).
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tantrum
K2o
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #14 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:39:54 AM »
Quote
actually..if the BB pushes and the raiser calls you decision is fairly simple...it's a fold every time in that situation for me. BB MUST have a hand to reraise a raise (4x BB) from a guy in that position + a caller, as he will always get called by one of them and he knows this.. and if UTg +1 calls you should be way behind.
If i have callers/raises and so on my AK does not look very good here, so easy fold for me. Sometimes the concept of being prized into the pot IMO is over rated.
So i would probably flat call the raise and hope to see the flop. At this stage of the tourney with my stack, unless I suspect that I have a better hand then my opponent, I am not inclined to commit myself to the pot.
Quote
Quote from: ACE2M on Today at 11:28:43 am
How much does the fact that he made the same raise from the same position with a poor result on the last circuit affect your decision?
Is it likely that he would significantly reduce his raising range when i am in the blinds considering the last circuit?
oh that definetly helps for me....however...the question you should also ask is
Is it likely he thinks YOU would significantly reduce your raising range considering last circuit. (IOW...will he be thinking you're at it because you got away with it last time).
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