SnG Shortstack question

[Canuck]

Played a turbo SnG today and with four left I am the shortstack at 950 chips.

The others are 2500 and 3000 with the CL on about 7000 or so

The blinds are 200-400 and I am UTG with 93s. The BB is the chip leader and if I push it will be an automatic call.

Should I push here, or fold and wait to be in the BB next hand?

[DrrDeme]

push.. fold equity from position... most ppl who can call are worried about

a} the damage you can cause them
b} the damage someone down the line can cause them..

If you take the blinds - your in far better shape for the next push

If CL has a hand.. you're goosed....  but even if he has Ak your not badly goosed (2:3).. The odds are against a substantial pp being out there..

[Tragic]

Sorry but there's the possibility one of the others will hang themselves if you fold this hand. As you said ur getting called whatever so there is pretty much 0 fold equity. Next hand is likely to be better and you may even get a walk if everyone has trash cos they dont wanna double short arse up. I always fold.

[ariston]

fold for me. Ok you are likely to be allin with any 2 on the BB the next hand but there aren't too many hands worse than 93. Take into account the chance somebody might do something silly after you have folded to take you into the last 3 (and the money). People will not push on your BB with total junk as they know you are so short you will probably be calling so there is always the chance of a walk as well.

[Tragic]

^ Copycat

[DrrDeme]

He He... fun and games...

No.. IMO  its a push...

Theres little difference between 9 3 s and the bulk of hands...

The difference you make is how you play it....

Example..

there's 600 in blinds to win your at 950 in early:

you push..

next guy has say 2500.. he looks at you and thinks hmm I have Kx here BUT if I call there are two dangers..

1] a pp or Ax down the line and cl
2] and the small probabilty that that UTG has a hand..

Actually I'm ok at the moment - not too far behind... If I call with a drawing hand and get busted I'm compromised. I'll fold...

this goes on down the line... a couple of folds maybe be then at the end the guy on BB thinks

hmm.. a push from early must be strong ..I'll fold

Now here's the thing...  first of all it doesn't always work like this. There is a tendancy for people to respect early pushes IF it can damage them.

IF some guy has a strong drawing hand you're not that far behind.

1] by going all-in first you stand an OK chance of taking the blinds
2] If you get called  you have an OK chance of cracking a strong hand and then more reaching 2500.. your then in the game.. and damaged  someone badly... (and incidently scared the living daylights out of the table )



If you don't go all-in you are waiting to die.. The blinds will eat you and often on situations like this strong players will multiway the pot on you and check down -  they want you out!!!

Waiting for a better hand...? no....play people, not cards.. work to get them to fold...

Admittedly this is yoyr second to last bullet.... but i'd rather use it on my opponents than reserving the two shots for myself...

[Tragic]

In this situation however, his push can't damage the BB, he's calling 500 out of his 7k to win what 1300?

[DrrDeme]

yep... there is a strong possibility that he will call....

but not with total crap - because he wont want to double you up...

and actually even if he calls with AK - I'm not losing sleep - I need a double up and pdq...

The problem is the multi way trick.

As soon as the blinds hit. many will join in to take you down...

[Tragic]

I still think in the long run it is more profitable to fold and try and let people knock themselves out in this hand. At the same time I think more people prefer to call with utter rubbish because of "pot odds", than raise into the ultra shortstack with utter crap when they can fold and just give him a couple of chips.

[DrrDeme]

there's a question of style..

personally I dont think the 2500 -3000 are going anywhere. Many will be looking at a 950 stack and CL and think - I'll keep out of that..

93 suited isn't a great hand... but if you get cl one on one and he has a drawing hand.. your not out of it...If you crack it.. your back in...and competing

If you take the blinds..(yeah only 10% of the time).. your actually a bit of a threat...

When the blinds take 400 out of you everyone will assume weakness and even cl may collude...to oust you...

Realise as well that an utg all-in is usually perceived as strong. If CL calls  he puts you at over 2.2k.  Hes then got everyone below him snapping at his heels... Many CL are really content to sit back and let the small stacks fight it out..


I think it was Moneymaker who went out of wsop with 72 s UTG either this year or last (and in the early stages when he was chip starved).. same trick...

 

[Canuck]

Thanks for the comments.

However I think some may be overestimating the power of a push in turbos. The blinds are so big late that every hand is a push and four handed UTG does not mean anything other then a) you can go all in first and b) the BB hits you next.

I pushed with the 93s and just as I thought the BB insta called, unfortunatly with T3s. lol. no help, 4th place money to me (0$).

ho hum, just curious if any one thought differently,

In hindsight, I think I should have waited.

[barhell]

Just played a 9 seat speed SnG 4 players left in. My stack just under 2000 all the other 3 players are 5000+, blinds are 600 and 300 they pass me by with nothing even remotely worth pushing, at which point i'm scraping by at 1000 chips, the hand before i'm commited by my BB, the current SB and BB fight it out over a flop which came A79 all spades they end up all in BB has 400 less chips than SB.
SB has A 6
BB has A 5
Both the 5 and 6 kickers are spades, spade on river gives me a placing which i would of needed a miracle to get.
So with your 93s i would fold every time.

[temp0r]

uhm. try pushing on the button the hand before instead? lol.
but no it's a fold. just gotta hope to hang in there and win a hand on the SB or BB.

[thetank]

People do sometimes fold to these raises when it should be an autocall.

Being overly simplistic about it.....

I usually tell people to push with any two if they think the chances of them picking up the blinds are greater than the chances of getting a walk next hand if they fold.

[Wardonkey]

If the BB has form for making really bad passes then I'd push. Otherwise I pass, hope for a better hand on the BB.

You actually have a little bit of fold equity just sat on the BB if the other players know that you will call. The 2 medium stacks won't want to put in a raise without a big hand as it has to go thru the big stack, and they know that you're calling. The big stack will often put you all-in with a lot of hands but will also pass a lot of really crap ones not wanting to give away a cheap double up.