How much your seat is worth.

[TightEnd]

I'm playing devils advocate but what I am trying to say is that whilst your chances of Cashing have risen with one fewer runner your chances of winning may be ever so slightly lower due to you having half the chips of the doubler-up

Possibly.

Either that or I am very tired and exceedingly stupid

[thetank]

I fear the latter.

You always have to win 13,500 chips in Andrew's model to win.

It is easier to do this offa 7 players than 8.

[TightEnd]

 

[Tonji]

(reminds me I need to replace my desk chair, .....current market value a fiver)

[Longy]

As ICM is just about the best approximation we have to EV in SNG's, Andrew T's answer is the mathematical correct answer given we have a perfect model and the said double up person is of average ability and the person who is knocked out is also of average abiltiy.

If all things were equal in these situations and we didn't have an edge generally a double up like this dumps .3% of the prize pool(about a dollarthis case) to the 7 people still on the starting chips and the rest to the double upee about 9%.

Of course we gain less in this case as some of our edge is built in to this double up happening, hence the reason why good SNG player play tight early on, as its mathematically correct.

[Swordpoker]

Brilliant poll.

Got me really thinking.

I voted 0.25 - 0.50 but I do think Andrew T's method of calculating it makes a lot of sense.

[KingPoker]

i agree with tighty on this one. Surely you have to subtract from the original number due to the fact another player has double up. And in reverse you would add a small (maybe even a fair bit) % if you had doubled up. Your percentage must decrease if it was not you who doubled up as statistically that player now has twice ,or at least a fairly large increased, chance of winning as he can afford to lose 1500 chips once and still be left with his starting chips! My way was more logical than mathematical so i expect lots of criticism!

  KingPoker

[Rod Paradise]

I might be missing something, but as you rate the seat as worth $40 for your average winnings, presumably over a load of games, then it doesn't really matter as you have calculated that whether you get bad-beat out in the next hand, or you win it, the seat's worth $40.

[AndrewT]

i agree with tighty on this one. Surely you have to subtract from the original number due to the fact another player has double up. And in reverse you would add a small (maybe even a fair bit) % if you had doubled up. Your percentage must decrease if it was not you who doubled up as statistically that player now has twice ,or at least a fairly large increased, chance of winning as he can afford to lose 1500 chips once and still be left with his starting chips! My way was more logical than mathematical so i expect lots of criticism!

In a winner takes all competition, someone doubling up on the first hand would not affect your equity at all.

The reason for the increase in equity here is because there are prizes for second and third. Whilst someone doubling up does hurt you slightly, it is more than compensated by the fact that someone got knocked out, which moves you closer to the money.

The easiest way to see this is true is to imagine that there is a nine-way all-in on the first hand involving all the other players, and eight are knocked out.

Still want to sell me your seat for $40?

[thetank]

i agree with tighty on this one. Surely you have to subtract from the original number due to the fact another player has double up. And in reverse you would add a small (maybe even a fair bit) % if you had doubled up. Your percentage must decrease if it was not you who doubled up as statistically that player now has twice ,or at least a fairly large increased, chance of winning as he can afford to lose 1500 chips once and still be left with his starting chips! My way was more logical than mathematical so i expect lots of criticism!

  KingPoker

Consider the following two models. Discount for now 2nds and 3rds. (and jokes about considering models)


Two players left13,500 in play
You 1,500 chips
Player X 12,000 chips.

Blinds 25/50



Nine player left 13,500 in play
You 1,500 chips
Player S 1,500 chips
Player T 1,500 chips
Player U 1,500 chips
Player V 1,500 chips
Player W 1,500 chips
Player X 1,500 chips
Player Y 1,500 chips
Player Z 1,500 chips

Blinds 25/50


In both models you have 1,500 chips, and 12,000 chips are elsewhere. In both models the blinds are 25/50. In which do you feel you would more likely to come 1st?