Flush odds

[Cell 1919]

I'd be really grateful if someone could help me here.

I'd appreciate some basic odds on the community cards containing four cards of the same suit. I appreciate that this is situational, dependant on what cards have already been folded or are held in live hands and the number of players at the table, but a rough guide would be very welcome.

If I were greedy I'd also be interested to know what the odds of the second two flop cards plus the turn and river being of the same suit are, but I feel I may be pushing my luck as it is!

 

[Swordpoker]

Chance of 3 cards same suit on flop if you are not holding any and you don't put anyone else on a flush draw:

12/49 (chance of 2nd card being same suit as 1st) x 11/48 (i.e. 11 remaining cards of that suit / 48 cards left)= 132/2352

Chance of turn being same suit also:

132/2352 x 10/47 = 1320/110544 which is approx. 1.2% chance

If I've made any mistakes, hopefully some maths whizz will come along and correct me.


Can't think why this stat would be useful though. Hope you're not drawing to flushes with off-suit cards.

[suzanne]

Go allin and close ur eyes...thats what I do

[thetank]

Chance of 3 cards same suit on flop if you are not holding any and you don't put anyone else on a flush draw:

You put people on flush draws pre-flop!

Must be something in this NLP

[matt674]

You put people on flush draws pre-flop!

One of the reasons i prefer to play unsuited cards - i have two pre-flop flush draws rather than one!!!

[Swordpoker]

Chance of 3 cards same suit on flop if you are not holding any and you don't put anyone else on a flush draw:

You put people on flush draws pre-flop!

Must be something in this NLP

OK, OK, it was 4:30am. I don't think much at that time in the morning - it helps me to play poker better.

[Cell 1919]

Chance of 3 cards same suit on flop if you are not holding any and you don't put anyone else on a flush draw:

12/49 (chance of 2nd card being same suit as 1st) x 11/48 (i.e. 11 remaining cards of that suit / 48 cards left)= 132/2352

Chance of turn being same suit also:

132/2352 x 10/47 = 1320/110544 which is approx. 1.2% chance

If I've made any mistakes, hopefully some maths whizz will come along and correct me.


Can't think why this stat would be useful though. Hope you're not drawing to flushes with off-suit cards.

Thanks for this.

Quite the contrary actually. Without getting into any mythical debates about site software I've been killed no less than 21 times in approaching 400 sit and gos at Stars when all in by runner, runner, runner, runner flush.

It's rather annoying when your trip Kings get trashed by a guy holding the three of diamonds in his hand and down they come, one by one.

Actually I nearly smashed my screen yesterday it was so annoying

[Tractor]

[thetank]

Thanks for this.

Quite the contrary actually. Without getting into any mythical debates about site software I've been killed no less than 21 times in approaching 400 sit and gos at Stars when all in by runner, runner, runner, runner flush.

It's rather annoying when your trip Kings get trashed by a guy holding the three of diamonds in his hand and down they come, one by one.

Actually I nearly smashed my screen yesterday it was so annoying

Expect it to happen 21 times in the next 400 too. In fact, why not expect it to happen 42 times instead.

It's not bad luck, it's just the way the game goes. Get used to it.
Do what you can in the 379 comps this doesn't happen in, to make a bit of money.

[thetank]

Oooh, and stop counting how "unlucky" you are.

Take the time you spend calculating how many board 4 flushes you are losing to, and spend it on higher pursuits.  The stat will do you no good whatsoever, unless you enjoy feeling sorry for yourself.

[Cell 1919]

Just part of the records I keep of each game, nothing more, nothing less

I'd kinda learnt that these things come with the territory, but thanks for the heads up

[thetank]

It's not bad luck though.

Play large numbers of tournaments, and you'll get large numbers of beats like these.

Not having a go for the sake od it, but when you stop thinking of it as bad luck, you'll be better able to not want to smash your computer up.

[Cell 1919]

I actually typed bad luck and changed it almost immediately to 'these things'^^^

I was genuinely interested.

[thetank]

Cannae blame you, I play a few of these things too, and at times feel as if the cards are picking on me. Like I'm recieving more than my fair share of the sour badness.

All perfectly normal, now chuck yer 50p in the box, and get back to work. Just be glad we didn't charge you for the whole 21 of them, wot with your liberal use of the phrase runner, runner and all.

[Dewi_cool]

I agree, Flushy is odd