Fold equity?

[Sark79]

How would you explain this poker concept?   Remember I am a simpleton from Kilmarnock 

This crops up over and over in all the articles I read online about poker and tonight I heard 1PEN talk about it in the latest P5's podcast.

I have a basic understanding of this from what I have studied online, but I was wondering if anyone could explain it in an easy to understand way

[Sheriff Fatman]

Its basically the likelihood of you being able to get an opponent to fold in a hand if you were to move all-in.  Generally, its dependent on stack-sizes.

For example, say you've got 1100 chips and blinds are 500/1000 in a tournament.  You have no fold equity at all as the big blind is going to call you whatever you do.

However, if you're in the same spot with 11,000 chips, still fairly short-stacked, there's a chance that a push with any two cards might get through.  Consequently, there is some fold equity in your hand, regardless of what you hold.

[Sark79]

thanks mate

I have noticed this play on some of the high limit STT on Stars recently.  One player in particular BigJoe2003(sp?) does  something similar to the above .  When it gets to the later stages, he moves all in rather than betting/raising. This seems to get a lot of players to step aside and let him pick up the pot uncontested. However when he is called, he often holds weak hands such as J,8 os, etc.  It is interesting to watch this style compared to some of the other players who take a completely different approach and wait for a stronger hand before pushing all in.   

[ariston]

run it into your pot odd calculations, especially good on reraise/resteal opportunites. If you reraise allin here how many times out of ten do you think you will get the guy to fold? If the answer is 5 then 50% of times you are winning the pot and the other 50% you are running against him (no matter what your 2 cards are here its a +EV move). If you are rerasing with a hand like 67 and he calls you with AK you win the hand one time out of three on top of the 50% of times you win uncontested. If you are reraising a shortstack who already has 80% of his stack in you know hes calling so there is very little folding equity, if however you are chip leader and you are reraising the 2nd stack there is more folding equity as he is likely to want to bump heads with you. Simple concept quite hard to put into words.

[Sark79]

run it into your pot odd calculations, especially good on reraise/resteal opportunites. If you reraise allin here how many times out of ten do you think you will get the guy to fold? If the answer is 5 then 50% of times you are winning the pot and the other 50% you are running against him (no matter what your 2 cards are here its a +EV move). If you are rerasing with a hand like 67 and he calls you with AK you win the hand one time out of three on top of the 50% of times you win uncontested. If you are reraising a shortstack who already has 80% of his stack in you know hes calling so there is very little folding equity, if however you are chip leader and you are reraising the 2nd stack there is more folding equity as he is likely to want to bump heads with you. Simple concept quite hard to put into words.

ok, thanks for this   

[Longy]

thanks mate

I have noticed this play on some of the high limit STT on Stars recently.  One player in particular BigJoe2003(sp?) does  something similar to the above .  When it gets to the later stages, he moves all in rather than betting/raising. This seems to get a lot of players to step aside and let him pick up the pot uncontested. However when he is called, he often holds weak hands such as J,8 os, etc.  It is interesting to watch this style compared to some of the other players who take a completely different approach and wait for a stronger hand before pushing all in.   

Bigjoe is an excellent example of a player who make his money out of fold equity, his plays are actually all ICM (independent chip model) based by on working out how often different opponents fol. He is probably the best sit and go player in the world, posts regularly on 2+2.

[Sark79]

Independent chip model?     How does this work mate?     ( Sounds like more painful maths )

[Sheriff Fatman]

Its a calculation of each players EV based on their chip stacks and the tournament payout structure.  I can be used to develop a push/fold strategy for the end-game in Sit n Go's.

It has limitations, such as it doesn't recognise proximity to the blinds, etc and is much debated, but its gives you as close to a 'formula' for playing a variant of poker that you're ever likely to get.

There are various tools around the place to find out more - good selection of links are below.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3457846&an=0&page=0#Post3457846

[Sark79]

Its a calculation of each players EV based on their chip stacks and the tournament payout structure.  I can be used to develop a push/fold strategy for the end-game in Sit n Go's.

It has limitations, such as it doesn't recognise proximity to the blinds, etc and is much debated, but its gives you as close to a 'formula' for playing a variant of poker that you're ever likely to get.

There are various tools around the place to find out more - good selection of links are below.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3457846&an=0&page=0#Post3457846

Thanks,  I don't normally go on the 2+2 forums, I will have a look later at this

[thetank]

 blinds are 500/1000 in a tournament......

However, if you're in the same spot with 11,000 chips, still fairly short-stacked

Unless on Tribeca, in which case, you are probably tournament chip leader.