Cheltenahm Tips

[Delboy]

if any of you can be bothered, could you explain laying to me please

Year me too, I know what it is but don't know how to do it

[scotty2hatty]

yeah, would work for me too.  I'm a big gambler, but mainly straight bets.

[boldie]

ok Laying;

Laying is essentially you being the bookie and betting others that the horse will NOT win.

If you have backed a horse at 16-1 for ten pounds your profit on that win bet would be 160£ but it has to win.
If the horse is now 8-1 you can lay it off to make a guaranteed profit. (Or atleast not to make a loss)

If you say I am willing to risk 80£ (of my 160£ profit) and will now also get my 10£ back as I will offer someone else 8-1 thatthe horse will win.

This means that no matter what happens you will NOT lose money on the race. Of course it means that if it does win your profit will be less, but it's a great way to guarantee a profit in a race if you can do this with several horses (as most ante-post punters do)
(If you would be willing to risk 88£ of your 160£ profit you would be guaranteed a profit of 1£ if it loses (someone would put 11£ on at 8-1 and your original stake on the win would be 10£ so 1£ profit)

Go to betfair (or any other betting exchange) and choose the lay option. It works the same way as backing a horse but you're betting it to lose.

[Delboy]

Thanks for that boldie...

[Pelham Boy]

I know people talk about him not travelling well but he finished 4th to Best Mate in a decent renewal and seems to be in decent health this year, I have a sneeky feeling he may get a place.

That was 3 years ago.

Im on Exotic Dancer at 10's but i wouldn't back it at its current price.

[The Camel]

My Cheltenham plan:

Lay Detroit City. 5 year olds have an abysmal record in the Champion and this is an incredibly hot race. Will probably have a small each way bet on Hardy Eustace too.

Lay Well Chief. He beat nothing at Newbury after Voy Por Ustedes fell. He is a definite bounce candidate too. Will have to be top of his game to win this. The race has an excellent each way shape and it will take an act of parliament to keep Newmill out of the frame. Each Way bet of the year.

Lay Denman. Something about his jumping worries me. He stops and jumps rather than jumping fluently. He could be a superstar but I feel at about 5/4 he has to be taken on.

Lay Aran Concerto. Noel Meade's festival record is terrible. He's far too short in my book.

Lay Black Jack Ketchum. Will probably start a ridiculously short price even after that terrible run last time.

Then, if I'm profit..

Have the lot on Kauto Star. Quite simply one of the best horses I've ever seen in a substandard Gold Cup. Yes, he makes the odd mistake, but he hasn't looked like falling, he finds a leg. They won't live with him if he stands up.

[boldie]

My Cheltenham plan:

Lay Detroit City. 5 year olds have an abysmal record in the Champion and this is an incredibly hot race. Will probably have a small each way bet on Hardy Eustace too.

Lay Well Chief. He beat nothing at Newbury after Voy Por Ustedes fell. He is a definite bounce candidate too. Will have to be top of his game to win this. The race has an excellent each way shape and it will take an act of parliament to keep Newmill out of the frame. Each Way bet of the year.

Lay Denman. Something about his jumping worries me. He stops and jumps rather than jumping fluently. He could be a superstar but I feel at about 5/4 he has to be taken on.

Lay Aran Concerto. Noel Meade's festival record is terrible. He's far too short in my book.

Lay Black Jack Ketchum. Will probably start a ridiculously short price even after that terrible run last time.

Then, if I'm profit..

Have the lot on Kauto Star. Quite simply one of the best horses I've ever seen in a substandard Gold Cup. Yes, he makes the odd mistake, but he hasn't looked like falling, he finds a leg. They won't live with him if he stands up.

I am with you on Newmill. I reckon he and L'ami are the two EW horses in the big races.

If kauto jumps round he'll win, there's noone who'll dispute that but his jumping will be severely tested at Cheltenham. I don't know why aran concerto keeps being backed, it is typically one of those races for an upset.

I can't wait for it to start, it'll be a great cheltenham this year

[Horneris]

I think that laying all of those is a great idea and you will grind out a decent profit, but im not at all a fan of just banging it all on Kauto Star, who may well fall.

Can't you just lay them all and thhen count your pennies?? I like your call on Newmill also.

I dont understand why people back favourites so vigilantly when you can back one 16-1 or 25-1 or 33-1 winner for a huge profit, a profit which you would have to back about 10 favourites to make.

Id rather just do the research and cream on the outsiders.

[ThinkerJE]

LAY Detriot City, Denman, Gungadu, Black Jack Ketchum & Kauto Star.

BACK Well Chief, Strangley Brown, Monolith, Mad Fish & State Of Play.

[The Camel]

I think that laying all of those is a great idea and you will grind out a decent profit, but im not at all a fan of just banging it all on Kauto Star, who may well fall.

Can't you just lay them all and thhen count your pennies?? I like your call on Newmill also.

I dont understand why people back favourites so vigilantly when you can back one 16-1 or 25-1 or 33-1 winner for a huge profit, a profit which you would have to back about 10 favourites to make.

Id rather just do the research and cream on the outsiders.

On the whole winning at gambling is about opposing the crowd.

Everyone knows that Kauto Star is prone to the odd mistake. Hence people are looking to lay him. Hence the price extends. Now, he MAY fall, but I believe the market has got to such a stage that he is grossly overpriced. One of his 2 main rivals was pulled out over the weekend and his price did not contract.

At odds on I would be looking to lay him. At 2/1 I honestly believe he is a great price. I would back him at 6/4. I believe his true price is about evens.

[Pelham Boy]

I don't see it as a case of Kauto just having to stand up to win.
Those last 2 furlongs will be unknown territory,and on the likely ground they will take plenty of getting.
Also i cant believe Nichols hasnt run the horse at Cheltenham this season.
We all know how important course form is,nevermind festival form.
Kauto star has neither.

[smithy69]

I know people talk about him not travelling well but he finished 4th to Best Mate in a decent renewal and seems to be in decent health this year, I have a sneeky feeling he may get a place.

That was 3 years ago.

Im on Exotic Dancer at 10's but i wouldn't back it at its current price.

The only reason I mentioned that is because everyone is saying he hates Cheltenham and can't run a half decent race outside of Ireland. He is a older horse, and may look exposed, but I think the race and ground wil lbe suited to him.

Only my opinions of course

[boldie]

I know people talk about him not travelling well but he finished 4th to Best Mate in a decent renewal and seems to be in decent health this year, I have a sneeky feeling he may get a place.

That was 3 years ago.

Im on Exotic Dancer at 10's but i wouldn't back it at its current price.

The only reason I mentioned that is because everyone is saying he hates Cheltenham and can't run a half decent race outside of Ireland. He is a older horse, and may look exposed, but I think the race and ground wil lbe suited to him.

Only my opinions of course

beef or salmon will never win the Gold Cup at cheltenham..the horse simply doesn't travel well (he's also already been slaughtered by the best in this years GC) he'll do well in Ireland but not at Cheltenham

[smithy69]

He beat the Listener last time out on ground which may be similar to Cheltenham.

He always gets outpaced at Cheltenham, but the ground may help him with this and could negate it to some point.

If he is in the firing line 4 out, he will go reasonably close.

I think he will place, but only for small stakes buddy

[ThinkerJE]

Ill start us off with 2 back to lays.

Had max bet on both on Coral (no runner non bet obv)

Gaspara in the Fred Winter at 16-1. Reliably told that if i runs itll be more like 10-1 or 12-1 so will hopefully be laying off on betfair for a huge free bet.

King Revo in the Jewsons at 8-1. Also told that if it runs itll be more like 5-1 or 6-1 favourite. Not hard to believe as is one of JPs and AP will take the ride.

Hopefully will be able to score myself 2 big free bets. Thats the plan anyway, although it dosent always work out like that. So dont blame me if they stay at the price and lose. They shouldnt though.


Everyone feel free to share any tips or insights on this thread as the festival starts to build up. My serious reseach stars tomorrow. The trends are where its at. Got the Weathearbys betting guide to the festival 2007 ready for action.

16-1 Gaspara is huge after she scooted up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown today.  Will be a short priced favourite if she runs on Tuesday.

I also am a trends man, Paul Jones's Cheltenham guide is essential reading for finding winners at the festival.  I am going on Wednesday and can't wait to see Well Chief cruise to QM chase victory, on his form with Moscow Flyer & Azertiop he only has to jump round, don't fear the bounce, he has been laid out for this. 

The 4 days of the festival are the best racing all year, cannot wait.