Odds vs Probability of it happening (8 Royal Flushes vs Lottery Win)

[Longy]

The 650000/1 is based on 5 card stud i believe, in hold em it is more likely. As in effect we are picking 5 from 7, if my memory of combination and permutations is right this cuts the odds by about 21 i think which is (7!/ (5!*2!)). So about 30000/1 this is by the river.

[Horneris]

Does anyone know the odds of getting A A A as a starting hand in 7 card Stud.

I was just dealt it and dont know how proud to feel.

[Smart Money]

The 650000/1 is based on 5 card stud i believe, in hold em it is more likely. As in effect we are picking 5 from 7, if my memory of combination and permutations is right this cuts the odds by about 21 i think which is (7!/ (5!*2!)). So about 30000/1 this is by the river.

Yes, 650,000/1 is the odds of hitting a Royal Flush with just 5 cards. (I.e. the probability of flopping a Royal in Hold 'Em.)

I've had 7-8 Royals in the last 2 years online, but I've played over 1,000,000+ hands over that time (6-8 tables x 4-5 hours/day)

Your actual probabilty of hitting a Royal is 30,000/1 x "the subjective probability that you will have seen a flop and stayed in the hand until the river" and this will obvious depend on several factors (pre-flop requirements, post-flop "looseness", opponents, number of players at table, cash/tournament, etc.)

Therefore, I would guess that somewhere around 150,000/1 would be a good estimate for most players' chances of hitting a Royal on any one particular hand.

As someone else has already stated, the initial question is based on flawed assumptions and so makes little sense.

[kinboshi]

Does anyone know the odds of getting A A A as a starting hand in 7 card Stud.

I was just dealt it and dont know how proud much of a luckbox to feel.

FYP.

Standard.

[KingPoker]

Im sure the odds of hitting a royal flush in hold em is 480,000/1

[Smart Money]

Im sure the odds of hitting a royal flush in hold em is 480,000/1

With 5 cards:

20/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 649,739/1

Divide by 21 for 7 cards.

[CrestOfaWave]

Another interesting odds fact for you.

Did you know, you have more chance of guessing a complete strangers telephone number than winning the lottery!!

Still wanna spend that £1 ?

Including area code??

By the way do you play as M3MONSTER on PS?? Location Ilford?

Interesting to see the reactions of some people to the thread. I think luck has a huge part to play whether it be poker or the lottery. I genuinely believe that some people are luckier than others too. In poker getting lucky includes pushing at the right time,winning the first big confrontation in a tournament, avoiding confrontations with bigger or same size stacks on coin flips, catching chased draws, slow playing the flopped nuts in trap situations etc etc.

My biggest win came about from amassing a large chip stack mid tournament and then playing TAG and small stack bully poker from the last third onwards. I know I have a lot of work to do on the mathematics side of my poker and that is what I will be working on during the next few months.

;-)

[doubleup]

I think the precise odds of getting a Royal in 7 cards are 30939-1

This is based on there being 133784560 combos of 7 cards - in this there are the 4 royals plus 1071 other 2 card combos giving a probability of .00003232.

Thank god for a good calculation when stars goes down and the Tvs crap.

[Smart Money]

Interesting to see the reactions of some people to the thread. I think luck has a huge part to play whether it be poker or the lottery. I genuinely believe that some people are luckier than others too. In poker getting lucky includes pushing at the right time,winning the first big confrontation in a tournament, avoiding confrontations with bigger or same size stacks on coin flips, catching chased draws, slow playing the flopped nuts in trap situations etc etc.

My biggest win came about from amassing a large chip stack mid tournament and then playing TAG and small stack bully poker from the last third onwards. I know I have a lot of work to do on the mathematics side of my poker and that is what I will be working on during the next few months.

;-)

It's true that some people have had better luck than others in poker, and life in general- but that's all.

All the best with your progress, but if you believe that some people are luckier than others then you are handicapping yourself.

[Syme]

Your return on £1 spent on the lottery is about 2p-3p.

This is of course a load of bollocks... out of every £1 you spend, 50p goes into the prize fund; so your return on every £1 is, duh, 50p.

I genuinely believe that some people are luckier than others too.

Well, a more likely explanation is that everyone is equally lucky, but some people seem luckier because of the variance.

[CrestOfaWave]

Interesting to see the reactions of some people to the thread. I think luck has a huge part to play whether it be poker or the lottery. I genuinely believe that some people are luckier than others too. In poker getting lucky includes pushing at the right time,winning the first big confrontation in a tournament, avoiding confrontations with bigger or same size stacks on coin flips, catching chased draws, slow playing the flopped nuts in trap situations etc etc.

My biggest win came about from amassing a large chip stack mid tournament and then playing TAG and small stack bully poker from the last third onwards. I know I have a lot of work to do on the mathematics side of my poker and that is what I will be working on during the next few months.

;-)

It's true that some people have had better luck than others in poker, and life in general- but that's all.

All the best with your progress, but if you believe that some people are luckier than others then you are handicapping yourself.

Appreciate your point of view. I certainly wouldnt want to handicap myself particularly against strong players who have been playing a lot longer than me. I am still way ahead of the game due to some large tournament placings so if I have already had my share of the luck then it will be up to my thirst for knowledge and enjoyment for the game that will take me to the next level - gl to you too . See you on the tables.

[thetank]

Stop playing  people!

[Ironside]

Stop playing  people!

you just run into a royal?

[bolt pp]

What s the probability that 6 meercats with knuckle dudster can beat up.............oh wait, we done that one already.

[thetank]

No, just pointing out a fallacy with the 31,000 to 1 concept.

A lot of times you would have hit your Royal, you will have folded pre-flop. (or on the flop even, if it's a runner runner royal)