satelitte bubble decision

[temp0r]

dunno why i haven't posted this previously cause it's a past hand i talk about alot.

you are playing a freezeout super-sat with 5 £500 seats up for grabs. 6th place gets a small cash. hardly worth playing almost 7 hours for.

UTG - 40k most aggressive player at the table. made a fair few moves earlier in the tournament but not an idiot
UTG1 - 50k tight internet 20something
UTG2 - 70k tight internet 20something chip leader
UTG3 - 20k - old indian full timer
SB - 35k - super tight bloke - knocked a short-stacked player out earlier all-in preflop with AQ but thats the least he'd do it with i think
BB - you - nice and comfy on 52k but with a poor image having just knocked someone out with A6 vs KK preflop

blinds - 3-6k

UTG - raises to 20k - nothing physical strikes me as different to his standard raises he was making with almost anything earlier in the tournament
folds round to SB
SB - goes into the tank for 20 or so seconds before announcing 'oright i'm all-in'

at this point UTG breaths out, leans back in his chair and looks up at the ceiling, then begins to count out his remaining chips. you let him finish before looking at your cards.

and now you look down and what a suprise it's 

all-in or fold?

[kinboshi]

Do you think the UTG player is going to call?

[doubleup]

UTG will probably pass if you make it 40k.  If he doesn't it's ok, you have to got to be very very unlucky to get beaten by both players in reverse order.

I would call only because if you lose to the allin you could immediately negotiate a deal with the other short stacks - they should really accept a 3 way chop of 2 seats plus the extra money.

[matt674]

Flat call - then if UTG calls, which he should to try and knock out the short stack - one of them will either be out or all in on the next hand.

If UTG passes and you get unlucky and outdrawn then there will be 3 of you around the 20k mark so still a chance that someone else goes out first.

With the blinds being so big it only takes the short stacks to double up once and you are as short as them.

[boldie]

Flatcall would be the move of most assuming UTG is smart enough to know that it's either one of you two will knock SB out or he'll be all in next hand. and that's fine for you aswell..

If UTG put a move on raising pre-flop he might fold here and have 20k back (and with the stacks being what they are that's not too bad as he can still get people to fold with an all-in on his big blind which he should do if he folds here).

I could fold this very easily if I thought UTG would fold here.

UTG and UTG 3 are in trouble if that happens and I only care about getting a seat and nothing else.

If I thought UTg would call if I called then it's a call.

[matt674]

Flatcall would be the move of most assuming UTG is smart enough to know that it's either one of you two will knock SB out or he'll be all in next hand. and that's fine for you aswell..

If UTG put a move on raising pre-flop he might fold here and have 20k back (and with the stacks being what they are that's not too bad as he can still get people to fold with an all-in on his big blind which he should do if he folds here).

I could fold this very easily if I thought UTG would fold here.

UTG and UTG 3 are in trouble if that happens and I only care about getting a seat and nothing else.

If I thought UTg would call if I called then it's a call.

lol, were you a politician in a former life? I'll get something for the creosote stains on your backside!!

[boldie]

Flatcall would be the move of most assuming UTG is smart enough to know that it's either one of you two will knock SB out or he'll be all in next hand. and that's fine for you aswell..

If UTG put a move on raising pre-flop he might fold here and have 20k back (and with the stacks being what they are that's not too bad as he can still get people to fold with an all-in on his big blind which he should do if he folds here).

I could fold this very easily if I thought UTG would fold here.

UTG and UTG 3 are in trouble if that happens and I only care about getting a seat and nothing else.

If I thought UTg would call if I called then it's a call.

lol, were you a politician in a former life? I'll get something for the creosote stains on your backside!!

lol..what? I thought it was simple enough?

[Ironside]

you have aces and have 17k back if you lose to the sb and 12k back if you lose to the sb first and the utg if he calls

its an instant call someone has to take a player out it doesnt have to be you but it might as well be

and what better cards to take a player out with than aces

[Muahahahaha]

Flatcall would be the move of most assuming UTG is smart enough to know that it's either one of you two will knock SB out or he'll be all in next hand. and that's fine for you aswell..

If UTG put a move on raising pre-flop he might fold here and have 20k back (and with the stacks being what they are that's not too bad as he can still get people to fold with an all-in on his big blind which he should do if he folds here).

I could fold this very easily if I thought UTG would fold here.

UTG and UTG 3 are in trouble if that happens and I only care about getting a seat and nothing else.

If I thought UTg would call if I called then it's a call.

Right, as a less experienced loser here, will I get shouted at if I suggest you've overcomplicated this.  Or have you done it so I end up with a headache, so my mrs won't get her oats this evening  ( Or has she paid you to ......)

6 players.

One all in.

One with half his stack commited.

If you go all in & it ends up hu with shorty, you've got AA.  This guy is mega tight so he'll hopefully be pushing with KK, QQ, or AK, or at worst AQ.  In which case you are a HUGE favourite to go through.

If loosey joins in, then you're all but guaranteed to go through anyway ?

What am I missing that makes it so complicated ?  Why is anyone even thinking of folding. ?

 

[Ironside]

[What am I missing that makes it so complicated ?  Why is anyone even thinking of folding. ?

 

because the prize for 4th is the same as 1st and therefore your not playing to win but playing not to be the next out

[Muahahahaha]

[What am I missing that makes it so complicated ?  Why is anyone even thinking of folding. ?

 

because the prize for 4th is the same as 1st and therefore your not playing to win but playing not to be the next out

Yup.

And UTG has got a pretty wide range of hands he could be playing, & shorty is seen to be tight, therefore we can assume he's got something.

So if only those two stay in, we can assume shorty has the better hand, & is therefore not likely to get knocked out.

If UTG calls & loses, he'll be crippled, but if he folds he'll still have a nasty stack size, and could easily cause us grief later on.

So we've folded AA & gained nothing.

But if our read on shorty is right, we can put him on a hand which we are probably miles in front of.  And if we're going to play that scared, why the hell have we taken up this game ?

If they were both all in & we had a guarantee of either shorty being knocked out, or UTG being left with 5K , I can see the logic of the fold.  But as that's not the case, we have to wade in.

With AA we're only in terrible trouble if we come 3rd of 3. If UTG joins us we are as close as damn it as sure that someones going out, & if he doesn't, then we're a huge favourite in a hu pot.

Or am I still missing something obvious ?

[boldie]

[What am I missing that makes it so complicated ?  Why is anyone even thinking of folding. ?

 

because the prize for 4th is the same as 1st and therefore your not playing to win but playing not to be the next out

Yup.

And UTG has got a pretty wide range of hands he could be playing, & shorty is seen to be tight, therefore we can assume he's got something.

So if only those two stay in, we can assume shorty has the better hand, & is therefore not likely to get knocked out.

If UTG calls & loses, he'll be crippled, but if he folds he'll still have a nasty stack size, and could easily cause us grief later on.

So we've folded AA & gained nothing.

But if our read on shorty is right, we can put him on a hand which we are probably miles in front of.  And if we're going to play that scared, why the hell have we taken up this game ?

If they were both all in & we had a guarantee of either shorty being knocked out, or UTG being left with 5K , I can see the logic of the fold.  But as that's not the case, we have to wade in.

With AA we're only in terrible trouble if we come 3rd of 3. If UTG joins us we are as close as damn it as sure that someones going out, & if he doesn't, then we're a huge favourite in a hu pot.

Or am I still missing something obvious ?

You are of course right. and in this hand we can't be the one going out due to our stack size.
However there is no need to get involved if you think UTG is going to fold. You might get unlucky and end up the shortstack of all 5 players if UTG folds and other guy cracks your aces. And that would essentially end your chance of getting a seat.

you don't have a need to get involved here, you are not playing for the win. But if UTG does his job and calls when you call aswell you should be fine. If he doesn't than you can just fold and let UTG worry about his, now very short with the blinds coming to him, own chipstack.

[AlexMartin]

Ur not comfortable enough yet to get complacent. Call and hope UTG calls so you can both check it down the streets unless it comes A 7 2 rainbow.

[temp0r]

i'd like some feedback to what i bring up below please..

RESULT:

i folded. yes folded. mental? hear me out.
i did so based on the read i had of the UTG player. normally if a player has a tough decision where they might fold and they're set in for a large chunk of their stack there head drops. UTG was relaxed enough to lean back in his chair and then start counting chips. i figured he thought he was feeling he HAD to call and would be on a pair against overcards of the supertight bloke. was i right to think this?

UTG tabled 
supertight 

so i read it the wrong way round but i'd still of been miles in front. but is there really anything wrong on a sat bubble. not a regular bubble. to fold and let them race here?
that either creates two short stacks or gives me a seat. if supertight holds up then the only guys who have me outchipped are very tight and i can steal one of them's blind due to being on the button of the 20something inet player's BB who has 70k from a stack that he hasn't touched in about an hour apart from placing his bind.

that was my thought process anyway. as it happened UTG hit the case ace. on the river. and i won my seat. no-one believed me that i'd folded aces of course. :\

[boldie]

i'd like some feedback to what i bring up below please..

RESULT:

i folded. yes folded. mental? hear me out.
i did so based on the read i had of the UTG player. normally if a player has a tough decision where they might fold and they're set in for a large chunk of their stack there head drops. UTG was relaxed enough to lean back in his chair and then start counting chips. i figured he thought he was feeling he HAD to call and would be on a pair against overcards of the supertight bloke. was i right to think this?

UTG tabled 
supertight 

so i read it the wrong way round but i'd still of been miles in front. but is there really anything wrong on a sat bubble. not a regular bubble. to fold and let them race here?
that either creates two short stacks or gives me a seat. if supertight holds up then the only guys who have me outchipped are very tight and i can steal one of them's blind due to being on the button of the 20something inet player's BB who has 70k from a stack that he hasn't touched in about an hour apart from placing his bind.

that was my thought process anyway. as it happened UTG hit the case ace. on the river. and i won my seat. no-one believed me that i'd folded aces of course. :\

OK I reckon you did it the wrong way around as in figuring that if UTG called you should fold. I reckon you should have called if your read said UTG would call but that's all.

Congrats on winning the seat!