Going out on a draw

[Muahahahaha]

Satallite to the Mansion $100K

Only a dozen sit down.  We get to the final table (  ) & I haven't played a hand.

Now it's tight as a drum.  I pick up a couple of blinds, but I'm pretty card dead.

There are 2 larger stacks, then mostly ave & a couple of shorties.

Did I mention it's gtting tighter ?

Then it erupted.  I got  in late position. One limper before me , I put in a raise to either steal straight off, of at least buy the button.  Suddenly there are 3 callers  ( The button & the blinds ).

The flop comes  .  So I've got an up & down straight draw.

There's a bet and a raise before me from the 2 big stacks.  If I stay in & call, I'll be putting in over 1/3 of my chips, but I can just about fold.  But if the first bettor raises again, I'm stuck.

So I think it's push or fold.  Because of the way the games gone so far, I don't think there's much bluffing going on.  I'm assuming an overpair & trips or something similar, so I've got to hit to win.

If the original bettor folds the raiser is getting odds to call, but if he calls & loses he'll be down to 3rd lowest stack ( or thereabouts ) so I've got a little bit of fold equity ( who am I kidding, he's calling whatever, it's just a question of whether the first guy comes along ).

If I win this hand I'm CL whatever, but if they both come in with me & I hit, I'm romping it.

Bottom line I push, villain 1 pushes, villain 2 calls.  The turn & the river are both blank.

Villain 1 has A8,  Villain 2 has 82o.  I have nothing.

Is this reasonable play or just donking off my chips in the fishiest of fishy plays.??

 

[johnbhoy76]

Satallite to the Mansion $100K

Only a dozen sit down.  We get to the final table (  ) & I haven't played a hand.

Now it's tight as a drum.  I pick up a couple of blinds, but I'm pretty card dead.

There are 2 larger stacks, then mostly ave & a couple of shorties.

Did I mention it's gtting tighter ?

Then it erupted.  I got  in late position. One limper before me , I put in a raise to either steal straight off, of at least buy the button.  Suddenly there are 3 callers  ( The button & the blinds ).

The flop comes  .  So I've got an up & down straight draw.

There's a bet and a raise before me from the 2 big stacks.  If I stay in & call, I'll be putting in over 1/3 of my chips, but I can just about fold.  But if the first bettor raises again, I'm stuck.

So I think it's push or fold.  Because of the way the games gone so far, I don't think there's much bluffing going on.  I'm assuming an overpair & trips or something similar, so I've got to hit to win.

If the original bettor folds the raiser is getting odds to call, but if he calls & loses he'll be down to 3rd lowest stack ( or thereabouts ) so I've got a little bit of fold equity ( who am I kidding, he's calling whatever, it's just a question of whether the first guy comes along ).

If I win this hand I'm CL whatever, but if they both come in with me & I hit, I'm romping it.

Bottom line I push, villain 1 pushes, villain 2 calls.  The turn & the river are both blank.

Villain 1 has A8,  Villain 2 has 82o.  I have nothing.

Is this reasonable play or just donking off my chips in the fishiest of fishy plays.??

 

The power of semi bluffing is that you give yourself two chances to win

1) they fold and you win
2) They call but you hit one of your outs and win anyway

The odds of you hitting here are 32% (give or take)

So in order for it to be a good move there has to be at least an 18% chance they will fold to your all in.

Or at least that would be my logic

It's easy enough to work out he % for option two but working out the % on option 1 is very subjective and a matter or opinion really. If you think there is absolutely no chance they will fold to your all in then I think pushing all in here is a bad move.

[MANTIS01]

Ok

So far in the tournament you have not seen a hand and have therefore not been able to generate any increase in your chip-stack.

The table is tight and the blinds are still small.

Along comes  .

This seems like quite a promising hand for the situation. So my mentality would be to try and get involved in a cheap multi-way pot with the benefit of position. Suited-connectors work well in multi-way pots because you are getting long odds to hit a big hand for a small stake.

Therefore, raising pre-flop with a view to "stealing" what little is in the pot at the moment is counter-productive. It goes against the true value of this hand. I would genuinely prefer to call here and see a flop than raise and see everyone fold.

You raise and get some action.

One thing is for certain after the flop. You cannot CALL the re-raise.

You are either going to be seeing all five cards e.g. all-in, or you are folding.

I would definitely push here if the action was bet and call because your squeeze play could get both opponents to fold and you wont have to hit. Bet and re-raise from bigger stacks means that you WILL be called.

Therefore, if you do push, it is better value for you if both opponents call. You are drawing to the nuts and have to hit so the more chips in the middle the better.

Whether you take this gamble on is entirely a question of how you feel. I think you probably went with it because you hadn't seen much and were a bit frustrated.

Much better to call pre-flop and then fold cheaply when you see the action on the flop.

If the flop comes two diamonds as well I push whatever happens.

[Horneris]

Definite Push, WP

[temp0r]

A8 and 82. wow. i knew there was something wrong about mansion and tight being in the same sentance..