Musings on a fallacy...

[bolt pp]

I love the way at the roullete table casino's give away a free pen, and a card with numbers on so you can keep track... positively encouraging the ol' gamblers fallacy - its an indication to the naive punter that the wheel does have a memory.

Notice also the commentary which accompanies the lottery draw.

"The first ball out is 19 - that's its 78th appearance in the midweek draw and its 160th in total. The second ball is 34 - we've not seen that ball for 11 weeks. Next it's 6 - that's the third draw in a row for that one"

Well there isn't really much else they can say when doing the commentary on a live lottery draw.............

"The first ball out is 19 - thats the age i lost my virginity to the married woman at number 34. The second ball out is 34 - wow, what a coincidence i've just mentioned that number and there it is, please dont ring up saying the draw is fixed - it is live honest! Next it's 6, thats how many days i've got to wait before i get my results back from the clinic - fingers crossed just like our lottery symbol"

19!!!!!!!!!!!

the teenage years are supposed to be the best of your life!!!

That guy must have been a frustrated teenager, you'd think he was too preoccupied with studying but he grew up to be a lottery announcer so fuck knows what he was doing from the age of 13-19 that involved not having sex!!!

dungeons and dragons no doubt

[matt674]

I love the way at the roullete table casino's give away a free pen, and a card with numbers on so you can keep track... positively encouraging the ol' gamblers fallacy - its an indication to the naive punter that the wheel does have a memory.

Notice also the commentary which accompanies the lottery draw.

"The first ball out is 19 - that's its 78th appearance in the midweek draw and its 160th in total. The second ball is 34 - we've not seen that ball for 11 weeks. Next it's 6 - that's the third draw in a row for that one"

Well there isn't really much else they can say when doing the commentary on a live lottery draw.............

"The first ball out is 19 - thats the age i lost my virginity to the married woman at number 34. The second ball out is 34 - wow, what a coincidence i've just mentioned that number and there it is, please dont ring up saying the draw is fixed - it is live honest! Next it's 6, thats how many days i've got to wait before i get my results back from the clinic - fingers crossed just like our lottery symbol"

19!!!!!!!!!!!

the teenage years are supposed to be the best of your life!!!

That guy must have been a frustrated teenager, you'd think he was too preoccupied with studying but he grew up to be a lottery announcer so fuck knows what he was doing from the age of 13-19 that involved not having sex!!!

dungeons and dragons no doubt

I will call your cleric and raise you an orc with 2 hobgoblins........

[AndrewT]

Not entirely unconnected.

I do despise Noel Edmond's results orientated spiel after a deal has been struck.

"Let's see if you made a good deal or a bad deal by seeing what random amounts you would have chosen in the remaining boxes"

Look, just because you've got a dead mouse on your chin it doesn't mean you can just talk c*** whenever you feel like it

The Guardian TV reviewer Charlie Brooker calls it 'a gameshow based on the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics.'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguide/columnists/story/0,,1696369,00.html

[kinboshi]

I find that a couple of aces is a fairly lucky hand.  Especially if they're soooted.

[happybhoy]

Interesting subject. In the back of one of Scott Adams Dilbert books (I think it's 'The Joy of Work') there is an unexpectedly serious section about luck. It's a bit long-winded but basically he starts by suggesting that time is an illusion, rather the universe consists of multiple still frames, where every possibility is played out, and the conscious (soul, whatever) jumps between them like pages in a flick book. He argues that people who regard themselves as lucky and expect lucky outcomes steer their way onto the pages that match those expectations.

He's got another short book in a similar vein and best of all its free, worth a read if you like that sort of thing.
http://fringe.davesource.com/Fringe/Entertainment/Books/Scott_Adams.Gods_Debris.pdf

[thetank]

Cards have no memory, nor do dice, or the wheel.

Ok, so why does a given STT player play off 100 buy-ins?
If he plugs away for ages, winning steady money, and withdrawing the excess to buy cigarettes and DVDs, all is fine and good.

He has a 50 buy-in downswing one week. Unlikely, but always possible. If his edge per tournament is small, it's an inevitability to happen eventuially.

No problem right, he has a bankroll to accomodate such a swing.
But he now technically only playing off 50 instead of 100 buy-ins, so he no longer has this bankroll. Although the odds say he'll recover, he is just as likely to undergo a 50 buy-in downswing as he was this time last week (where he did go on to lose 50 buy-ins)


Moral of the story, don't smoke, flaunt copyright laws and double your roll.

(I've gone bust before, but only when I've been playing on shorter rolls due to outlandish spending habits personal circumstances)

[tikay]

I love the way at the roullete table casino's give away a free pen, and a card with numbers on so you can keep track... positively encouraging the ol' gamblers fallacy - its an indication to the naive punter that the wheel does have a memory.

Notice also the commentary which accompanies the lottery draw.

"The first ball out is 19 - that's its 78th appearance in the midweek draw and its 160th in total. The second ball is 34 - we've not seen that ball for 11 weeks. Next it's 6 - that's the third draw in a row for that one"

Well there isn't really much else they can say when doing the commentary on a live lottery draw.............

"The first ball out is 19 - thats the age i lost my virginity to the married woman at number 34. The second ball out is 34 - wow, what a coincidence i've just mentioned that number and there it is, please dont ring up saying the draw is fixed - it is live honest! Next it's 6, thats how many days i've got to wait before i get my results back from the clinic - fingers crossed just like our lottery symbol"

19!!!!!!!!!!!

the teenage years are supposed to be the best of your life!!!

That guy must have been a frustrated teenager, you'd think he was too preoccupied with studying but he grew up to be a lottery announcer so fuck knows what he was doing from the age of 13-19 that involved not having sex!!!

dungeons and dragons no doubt

I was over 30 before you know what ever happened. Oh, the fun I must have missed. And the joy of working nights to catch up.

All a distant memory now.

[thetank]

Confidence intervals, risk of ruin all that sort of thing.

Statistics can be interesting if someone else does the math.

[TightEnd]

normal distributions can be fun, I am 95% confident of that

[AndrewT]

normal distributions can be fun, I am 95% confident of that

Standard

Statistics can be interesting if someone else does the math.

Deviation

[jammer]

normal distributions can be fun, I am 95% confident of that

Standard

Statistics can be interesting if someone else does the math.

Deviation

This puns are getting a bit samey. I'd personally like to see a bit more variance in them.

[Dingdell]

Interesting article Tighty but no one can dismiss 4 7  

[AndrewT]

normal distributions can be fun, I am 95% confident of that

Standard

Statistics can be interesting if someone else does the math.

Deviation

This puns are getting a bit samey. I'd personally like to see a bit more variance in them.

Don't be mean.

[jammer]

normal distributions can be fun, I am 95% confident of that

Standard

Statistics can be interesting if someone else does the math.

Deviation

This puns are getting a bit samey. I'd personally like to see a bit more variance in them.

Don't be mean.

Can't help it. I hear its all the mode these days.

 

[TightEnd]

Unless you complete the set with a pun involving "median" you are all rank amateurs