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Author Topic: Interesting? bubble sat situation  (Read 788 times)
boldie
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« on: April 20, 2007, 11:23:23 AM »

16$ turbo rebuy to the WSOP 320 qualifier.

9 players left. 6 get a seat 7th gets 240$ cash. You have invested 64$ in this tournament.

You are on the BB with 15k ish. You are 6th when nit comes to chipstack (but it's your BB and blinds are 3k-6k)

You get pocket aces.

UTG+3 shortstack (7k) moves in.

UTG+4 (Was chipleader but hasn't hit anything lately and down a few in chips because of last 2 table action but very solid sat player) Flatcalls out of his 28k stack. He will most likely call you if you move all-in and is very unlikely to have anything other than JJ+ or he wouldn't be in the pot. AK AQ and all that can safely be ruled out.

UTG+5 You haven't seen him before in another sat so probably not a regular flatcalls from his 14k stack. (He's 7th in chips) This guy won't fold a hand at this stage if he's already in but has been making some strange choices as to what to do with certain hands.

Nr 8 in chipcount won't see a BB for 2 more hands but has 12k in chips and could be all in on the SB as the blinds go up in 3 minutes time and people are stalling a lot.

Everyone else folds.

You find yourself with pocket aces.

Question one; what do you do when you have all this info?

I reraised all-in, and off course everyone called.

Question 2; What do you think of the all-in here? Should I have folded and hope Big stack takes both players out and then hope nr 8 in chipcount loses both his blinds?




My reasoning was that I am 6th in chips and therefore if I lose this hand (which with Aces against 4 others is a very real possibility) and Big stack wins it I will go out in 7th. Getting 240$ for my troubles.
If I lose to shortstack only I would get about 21k in chippies..more than enough to get a seat (in fact that would be virtually guarantueed)
If I were to lose to UTG+5 I am screwed.
If I win the seat is safe as I would be chipdaddy with 7 players left.

The outcome of the hand is not really important but I lost to the big stack only, but I had a discussion afterwards with another player at the table who said it has to be a fold or flat call/ check it out. And I was just wondering what people on here thought about it.
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kinboshi
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2007, 12:47:04 PM »

Following your logic, your push seems correct to me.  You're effectively trying to beat one other player.

Be interesting to hear what others have to say though.
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doubleup
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2007, 01:06:52 PM »

I don't think folding can ever be correct - isn't it only 1k more to you???

Lets say you call and lets say you are 50% to win - we can assume you get a seat if you win, so calling is worth $160 plus the equity you still have if you lose.  

Going all in is the same equity if you win and the same chance of getting beaten, so the decision lies on what happens in both cases if you lose.  

going ai - If utg4 wins 1/6 of the time its worth 1/6 of 240, if the utg5 wins virtually nothing, if shortstack wins and you come second (lets say 10% of the time) - its surely a seat, so all thats about $80 -$90 in equity.  

Just calling - is a lot more complicated, but if utg4 wins there will only be 8 players with 3 of you having the roughly the same chips, but you have the sb next hand - prob much the same equity as going ai.  So lets look at utg5 winning - were still 8 players, but this time you have more equity.   If the short stack wins you are in the same situation as utg4 winning.

Looks like calling might be a bit better, but it would take some very complicated calcs to be sure

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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2007, 03:30:43 PM »

a   vvvv unique  situation  here boldie.

the flat call is a distinct possibility, only flawed by the knowledge that if the bigger stack pushes post flop, do you believe u have to call??

if so,  a fold pre would have been correct on that basis.

probably the single most marginal pha i have seen to date tho.
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AlexMartin
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2007, 04:17:12 AM »

Tricky, very difficult this.

Dont have an answer. Think id flat call and fold to most bets as big stack knows player is all-in and wont bet unless he has a set/2 pair. You can then make the money by longing your heart out.
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boldie
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2007, 12:06:24 PM »

a   vvvv unique  situation  here boldie.

the flat call is a distinct possibility, only flawed by the knowledge that if the bigger stack pushes post flop, do you believe u have to call??

if so,  a fold pre would have been correct on that basis.

probably the single most marginal pha i have seen to date tho.

The big stack isn't really the problem in this hand. He and I both know that if I flatcall it would need to be checked out. (We have played eachother a lot in sats and he knows I wouldn't be in here without having a good reason)
He is VERY unlikely to bet even if he thinks he has me beat as he'll be more than happy to be very big chipdaddy and he wouldn't risk doing anything stupid.
The problem is with UTG+5 who has God knows what and is the only player you actually have to beat, he is more than likely to push on any flop and could therefore put me in a tricky position if the wrong flop came down and I flatcalled pre-flop.

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