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Poker Hand Analysis
Advice plz...
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Topic: Advice plz... (Read 1579 times)
SnipeR
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Posts: 244
Advice plz...
«
on:
May 03, 2007, 05:07:33 PM »
Can someone tell me if i either played this wrong or was it A loose call by my opponent?, plus thoughts coz i cant get my head round it?, many thanks.
The tourney is a $33 F/o, 80 players, 12 left, paying top ten,im second in chips, chip leader is at my table,im in the big blind.
I am dealt three diamonds , bloke in mid position raises (blinds are 1200/2400) to 10k small blind calls, i call.............
flop is three clubs .........i check,....bloke in mid bets out 20k......small blind calls........i push all in....67k...bloke in mid position folds......small blind and chip leader calls.......
he shows ........Fucking happy Days!!....Cant believe the chip leader has taken me on with that!!??...
Turn was .......mmm...i thought....ok.....
River was .......FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! unreal whats that all about??!.....Now did i play this wrong or did the chip leader make a crap call and got lucky,cant work out why he would want to take me on with so much at stake?
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"Stu Ungar"??...Yeah he Stole my moves!!....3/6os= Insta Snap Jam...
SnipeR
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Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #1 on:
May 03, 2007, 05:08:35 PM »
sorry the above doesnt make sense.......it was put in wrong forum by me and i tried to paste it across...doh...
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SnipeR
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Posts: 244
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #2 on:
May 03, 2007, 05:09:37 PM »
Can someone tell me if i either played this wrong or was it A loose call by my opponent?, plus thoughts coz i cant get my head round it?, many thanks.
The tourney is a $33 F/o, 80 players, 12 left, paying top ten,im second in chips, chip leader is at my table,im in the big blind.
I am dealt
, bloke in mid position raises (blinds are 1200/2400) to 10k small blind calls, i call.............
flop is three clubs
.........i check,....bloke in mid bets out 20k......small blind calls........i push all in....67k...bloke in mid position folds......small blind and chip leader calls.......
he shows
........Fucking happy Days!!....Cant believe the chip leader has taken me on with that!!??...
Turn was
.......mmm...i thought....ok.....
River was
.......FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! unreal whats that all about??!.....Now did i play this wrong or did the chip leader make a crap call and got lucky,cant work out why he would want to take me on with so much at stake?
Logged
"Stu Ungar"??...Yeah he Stole my moves!!....3/6os= Insta Snap Jam...
I, Zimbra
Fallen Astronaut
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Posts: 2579
"the wind in my heart, the dust in my head"
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #3 on:
May 03, 2007, 07:02:06 PM »
OK - let me clean this up a bit:
It's near the bubble, the chip leader is to your right and in the small blind. You have 77k and are second in chips. Blinds are 1200/2400, so you're comfortable with 32xBB (M=21).
In the Big Blind, you are dealt 3-3 and facing a mid-position raise to 10k, the chip leader calls and you also call.
Flop is 3-5-5 giving you a full house. The small-blind-CL checks what we now know to be an up-and-down draw, you trap-check your monster, the original raiser now represents, putting 20k into a 30k pot. The small blind figures it's worth a punt and calls.
You now come out of the woods and move in on what is now a 70k pot, by moving in for 67k total. The original raiser drops out, leaving the small blind with a decision.
---
He only has to call 47k more, and there is a massive 137k in the middle, giving him 2.9 - 1 odds to call, so he needs 26% EV to call. It's enough if you've only got an overpair to this flop that doesn't interfere with his draw (e.g. 9-9, which is 32%), something like 5-4 or 5-6, because you could potentially redraw to a house even if he makes a straight... although it's close (28%). You might also have something such as a club flush draw (you might be ahead with A-J of clubs, so he can't win with the deuce or seven of clubs, but he could win with a six, or non-club four), in which case he is also getting correct calling odds (32%).
Based purely on the odds, he is just getting enough to call but also one has to figure that this is a tournament and it depends of course on how much he has you covered by and whether he will be crippled if he loses. In any case I don't particularly like the way he played the hand though, he called out of position with 6-4, check-called his draw and then called again after the push.
Pre-flop, the 4-6o call was certainly loose; on the flop, he wasn't really getting odds to call the original 20k bet, except if he figures that maybe he can push the original raiser (who might be representing with nothing) off the hand on a later street. As for whether he would want to take you on with so much at stake (this being near the bubble), often times you'll see good players take risks at this point, because the first prize is worth so much more than simply 'making the money'. However this is usually accomplished with aggression, and the chip leader here didn't play the hand aggressively at all.
You certainly didn't do anything wrong - you got your money in as a huge 98% favourite and lost to a runner runner beat. Poker is just cruel sometimes.
Edit: I was right the first time, 2.9 to 1 means you need 25% EV to call.
«
Last Edit: May 03, 2007, 07:14:46 PM by I, Zimbra
»
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temp0r
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Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #4 on:
May 03, 2007, 10:52:01 PM »
shocking call pf to be fair.
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #5 on:
May 04, 2007, 08:48:29 AM »
Don't like the call pre-flop to be honest you're hoping to hit a set everything else is essentially no good..but OK..you've now flopped a Full house..after that you did everything fine and got unlucky.
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SnipeR
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Posts: 244
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #6 on:
May 04, 2007, 10:21:15 AM »
thanks for your thoughts guys much appreciated, esp zimbra, thats quality, class and an education......you know ive been playing for years but every day i learn something new or a new perspective, tnx v much.
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"Stu Ungar"??...Yeah he Stole my moves!!....3/6os= Insta Snap Jam...
I, Zimbra
Fallen Astronaut
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Posts: 2579
"the wind in my heart, the dust in my head"
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #7 on:
May 06, 2007, 08:03:11 PM »
I just thought of something else about this (couldn't sleep last night
).
Most people, having flopped a full house would choose to slowplay it and flat call. Even though there's two players in the pot with you here, a flat call (rather than the check-raise) would still have been an option; realistically, if you're putting the original raiser on an overpair (a good scenario for you!) and the check-calling CL on a draw of some kind, you know that the original raiser is likely drawing to two outs and the chip leader is drawing probably almost dead with his flush draw/straight draw/whatever he's got.
Now - here's the point: if you flat call the flop bets... then the turn comes down with another 5. Horror! Terrible card, because now your full house has been counterfeited, you're basically playing the pair of threes and anyone with a bigger pocket pair is beating you.
From this position, you have gone from slowplaying a monster to suddenly being extremely vulnerable; you might curse and grind your teeth about it but at least you can likely get away from the hand if there's a lot of action. Not good news when you'd been expecting to make a lot of chips on this hand, but at least you still have 47k to make a comeback.
Alternatively, if the original raiser has overcards but not an overpair, and shows any weakness, you can bet and maybe take the pot right there. Whatever draw the chip leader was on, he has to give up now because of the trips on the board and the possibility of drawing dead vs. a pocket pair higher than 6's. Of course, the problem now is that the pot is huge and you only have 47k to chase them out with, but it might be achievable.
Just another viewpoint.
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #8 on:
May 07, 2007, 08:49:09 PM »
this is too tricky to get involved with. I cant understand it sir.
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SnipeR
Full Member
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Posts: 244
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #9 on:
May 07, 2007, 08:49:36 PM »
in hindsight(which is a wonderfull thing to not have)...i think i should have either folded pre flop and stayed out of the hand or flat called to a point then check/fold once the 5 hit.....its a lesson learnt...ur advice has been v good tho mate and prob spot on....i do have another for ya, if you read this string again tell me what you would have done here......................................
$16 k mtt on betfair......
blinds are 800/1600.......
i have 14k in chips doing ok just in top 15 or so, not a lot seperating about 10 people.....
im under the gun with
.......i have been playing premium hands big winning blind's and gaining table respect..........i flat call this time....
on a full table,a family pot evolves with 7 callers....very passive....odd i agree at this stage even short stack on only 3k calls....now im not liking this situation??.....
FLOP........
.......its me to act i bet 5k..........short stack pushes all in...(3k)...and i get a flat caller........
turn ........
......i check......caller also checks........??.....im thinking he's now drawing to maybe a flush......otherwise why not try and push me off the hand after i checked......
river..........
........i check.........he pushes all in....
........i fold......he shows
.........(short stack out)..........what could i have done differently here?
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GlasgowBandit
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Posts: 5646
Global Pacifier
Re: Advice plz...
«
Reply #10 on:
May 07, 2007, 10:44:40 PM »
U make a big enough bet on the turn to make sure you are charging him if he is drawing to a flush. i don't suppose he is passing anway when the A strikes he also has broadway straight. Even if he does have the heart draw why would he push on the river? surely he wants to get your chips in the pot as well as he doesnt want to scare u off. The danger of him pushing is that with the 2nd Ace it may have given you a boat.
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