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Poll
Question: Push or Pass?
Push - 6 (60%)
Pass - 4 (40%)
Total Voters: 10

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Author Topic: SnG Bubble Decision (I, Zimbra Remix)  (Read 1695 times)
I, Zimbra
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« on: May 04, 2007, 12:43:40 AM »

These been cropping up a bit lately - here's one of mine. We're in third place, two of the stacks are huge, and one is mini... but if they double up, it could get ugly.

Plus a poll. No extra charge. Cheesy

---

The Button has made a few questionable calls (e.g. A2s out of position early on), but has ridden some luck. The Big Blind seems solid enough. The Small Blind, unsurprisingly, is a little on the tight side.

Do we push or do we pass?

Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: Small Blind ( 1,360 )
Seat 6: Big Blind ( 6,420 )
Seat 10: Button ( 9,650 )
Seat 7: Zimbra ( 2,570 )

Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Zimbra [  ]

?
« Last Edit: May 06, 2007, 07:45:07 PM by I, Zimbra » Logged

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e glassala tuffm i zimbra
Longy
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2007, 12:47:38 AM »

Pass and i don't think its close. Given the stack sizes and the fact your utg therefore have to push passed 3 other players, bubbling gives away so much equity. Im pushing something like aj+ 77+ here.
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boldie
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2007, 08:45:11 AM »

Push. the SB has to push the next hand when he's on the button to your BB..and you have to ask yourself can you give that up or do you hope you get a better hand in the next two hands? He however does not need to call this bet. and neither does anyone else.
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AlexMartin
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2007, 09:17:20 AM »

Push. the SB has to push the next hand when he's on the button to your BB..and you have to ask yourself can you give that up or do you hope you get a better hand in the next two hands? He however does not need to call this bet. and neither does anyone else.

Push, two big stacks are more worried about you doubling up and want shortie eliminated
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temp0r
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2007, 10:11:28 AM »

PUSH. unless you have a 2+2 SnG bubble play image.

the button can't really call with much becuase they have their stack to think about and playing behind them.
the solid BB has a small calling range due to their fear of doubling you up.
the SB is tight and thus also has a small calling range. plus they should know any call there aside from AA/KK/QQ/AK is EV-

there is 600 in the pot. if you take this one down you're alot more comfortable than the shorter stack. if you fold the BB hits you at 400 and suddenly you're an even short stack near enough.

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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2007, 05:14:46 PM »

Anyone want to speculate on calling ranges for the button and blinds here.  As pushing is horrible here unless they are mega tight, I have run it through sngpt now and i got neutral ev if all 3's calling ranges are 66+ aj+.

This in my experience for a party (?) sng (I presume this is a mid limit one say 22) is totally unrealisitic. Zimbra says button is an idiot so no way he is calling this tight and the shortie will call wider than this if folded to him and the bb is getting priced in, even if he is solid by party standards i bet he calls with 55 and a10.

So my calling ranges would be something like this i will err on the tight side.

button: any ace, any pair any pictures (given read)
sb: 44+ a8+ kjs+
bb: 66+ a10+

If this is true we are burning about 1.4% of the prizepool ($2.71) this is massive mistake and you should never be making mistakes this big. . If this was with tighter players its closer but there is no way on earth that ppl are calling tight enough to push this.
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I, Zimbra
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2007, 07:50:05 PM »

This in my experience for a party (?) sng (I presume this is a mid limit one say 22)
Longy is spot on, it was $22 on Party... whether that helps or not!
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2007, 08:51:54 PM »

Anyone want to speculate on calling ranges for the button and blinds here.  As pushing is horrible here unless they are mega tight, I have run it through sngpt now and i got neutral ev if all 3's calling ranges are 66+ aj+.

This in my experience for a party (?) sng (I presume this is a mid limit one say 22) is totally unrealisitic. Zimbra says button is an idiot so no way he is calling this tight and the shortie will call wider than this if folded to him and the bb is getting priced in, even if he is solid by party standards i bet he calls with 55 and a10.

So my calling ranges would be something like this i will err on the tight side.

button: any ace, any pair any pictures (given read)
sb: 44+ a8+ kjs+
bb: 66+ a10+

If this is true we are burning about 1.4% of the prizepool ($2.71) this is massive mistake and you should never be making mistakes this big. . If this was with tighter players its closer but there is no way on earth that ppl are calling tight enough to push this.

Fundamentally disagree with your calling ranges.
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fergus8
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2007, 09:56:51 PM »

totally agree with longy, instant fold.
i think it a perfect spot next hand when short stack may push and prob get insta called, and you have position on the short stack when both are in the blinds.
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Longy
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2007, 10:17:37 PM »

Anyone want to speculate on calling ranges for the button and blinds here.  As pushing is horrible here unless they are mega tight, I have run it through sngpt now and i got neutral ev if all 3's calling ranges are 66+ aj+.

This in my experience for a party (?) sng (I presume this is a mid limit one say 22) is totally unrealisitic. Zimbra says button is an idiot so no way he is calling this tight and the shortie will call wider than this if folded to him and the bb is getting priced in, even if he is solid by party standards i bet he calls with 55 and a10.

So my calling ranges would be something like this i will err on the tight side.

button: any ace, any pair any pictures (given read)
sb: 44+ a8+ kjs+
bb: 66+ a10+

If this is true we are burning about 1.4% of the prizepool ($2.71) this is massive mistake and you should never be making mistakes this big. . If this was with tighter players its closer but there is no way on earth that ppl are calling tight enough to push this.

Fundamentally disagree with your calling ranges.

I think we will have to agree to disagree then. I have played over 1k 22's sngs on Party this year and this is based on my experience, these players in general don't adjust to the bubble correctly.
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2007, 10:21:28 PM »

i agree again, this same situation at different levels, say 22$ and 100$, would call for a different play, just dont trust the idea that they will fold at lower levels to ur allin, may have a case at higher stakes
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