Tough spot from the Sunday Million

[dino1980]

Stars Million about 1250 left, next pay jump at 1100 (i think) but that's not important it's just to say there's still a long way to go and that the avg is about 82,000.

A bit of background, the previous hand I re-raised Jamaal's raise and he folded i didn't show a hand (i had aces) the hand previous to that i had also re-raised pre with a-q and taken the pot pre.

The only hand i've seen acecatcher show down is pocket 10s, from his OPR he seems to be a solid winning player who likely knows what he's doing. My player notes say, '$3k in profit - did satty in - asume solid until otherwise has only shown solid hands down - e.g 10s, re-stole once from me when i was in the hi-jack he = small blind.

Here's my quandry does he have A-K crushed? Or is the 2-1 price i'm getting for all my chips a good enough price to put my tournament on the line? Call and win i have c.330k and am in good shape to go deep, call and lose i'm busto, fold i still have 113k at 2400/4800. Is this a spot where it's worth taking, a 330k coinflip to give myself a better shot at a big payday or folding and waiting for a better spot to double up as, at this point, i'm under no pressure to get it AI pre.
Is it even close? Should it be an insta call getting 2-1? Should I have smooth called pre and taken a flop? How likely is it that Jamaal has folded one of my outs? After committing a third or my stack is this a really bad fold?

PokerStars Game #10021437321: Tournament #50186235, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2400/4800) - 2007/05/20 - 20:23:03 (ET)
Table '50186235 772' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Suited-Hooks (63395 in chips)
Seat 2: dino1980 (156856 in chips)
Seat 3: SKP2870 (62080 in chips)
Seat 4: birdage79 (114598 in chips)
Seat 5: acecatcher26 (155844 in chips)
Seat 6: pbl13 (80680 in chips)
Seat 7: A12Begemotov (18300 in chips)
Seat 8: Jamaal84 (97655 in chips)
Seat 9: SirinNabokov (94428 in chips)
Suited-Hooks: posts the ante 240
dino1980: posts the ante 240
SKP2870: posts the ante 240
birdage79: posts the ante 240
acecatcher26: posts the ante 240
pbl13: posts the ante 240
A12Begemotov: posts the ante 240
Jamaal84: posts the ante 240
SirinNabokov: posts the ante 240
birdage79: posts small blind 2400
acecatcher26: posts big blind 4800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [ ]
pbl13: folds
A12Begemotov: folds
Jamaal84: raises 9600 to 14400
SirinNabokov: folds
Suited-Hooks: folds
dino1980: raises 28800 to 43200
SKP2870: folds
birdage79: folds
acecatcher26: raises 112404 to 155604 and is all-in
Jamaal84: folds
dino1980:folds
allinstevie [observer] said, "ship ship"
acecatcher26 collected 105360 from pot
acecatcher26: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 105360 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Suited-Hooks folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: dino1980 folded before Flop
Seat 3: SKP2870 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: birdage79 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: acecatcher26 (big blind) collected (105360)
Seat 6: pbl13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: A12Begemotov folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Jamaal84 folded before Flop
Seat 9: SirinNabokov folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Rookie (Rodney)]

insta call

[doubleup]

He must have a big hand, I would reckon AK or QQ+, so you aren't giving up a huge amount by folding.  I would call myself mainly because I know my limitations and embrace gambles at every opportunity at this stage of a tournament.

[M3boy]

Having gone out of my last 6 live tourneys just before FT in similar situations, ie AK all in race for HUGE pot (lost them all )

Its an instant fold for me!!!!!!!!!

LOL

Seriously I think this is an easy fold given how deep you are and given the information.

[boldie]

it's a fold for me..but only because he would flip over AQ against me and te Q would come on the flop lol.

I think it's a fold.

[temp0r]

so wait a minute. he's seen jamaal raise alot lately. and you re-raise alot lately. without either of you showing down. you could be getting squeezed hard right here if he's capable of such a move. which all winning players should be. and giving initiative to a solid player behind you that he can re-re-raise you preflop and get you off a hand isn't something i'm into. if you fold here you may get pushed around alot from here on inward. also given the stage of the tournament.. i think it's time to gaaaamble. give yourself a real shot at the deepend.

[dino1980]

I actually managed to private message acecatcher as she's a member of another fourm I post on, she had KK apparently. But I agree her range here is a lot wider than AA, KK, QQ and A-Ko.

[bhoywonder]

I actually managed to private message acecatcher as she's a member of another fourm I post on, she had KK apparently. But I agree her range here is a lot wider than AA, KK, QQ and A-Ko.

gf then sir

what other forum are u on if you don't mind?

[dino1980]

I actually managed to private message acecatcher as she's a member of another fourm I post on, she had KK apparently. But I agree her range here is a lot wider than AA, KK, QQ and A-Ko.

gf then sir

what other forum are u on if you don't mind?

Too many! More of a lurker than a poster on Pocketfives, THM, 2+2 and Punters Lounge. Post a lot on a gambling forum run my BP member mango99.

[AlexMartin]

This situation is different  compared to if ur short-handed or on the bubble. In this spot, regardless of percieved image, squeezer likely has a very big hand. Obv gd players are going to squeeze with a much wider range, but she has to figure that one of you had to have a hand after your previous antics. Fuck thats a badly contructed sentance, ah well.