fold or call???

[Squid]

 Down to the last 3 in a small MTT holding about 120k of 300k chips blinds are 10k I think limp in with  SB calls and BB checks flop is something like      Ist player checks (50k) goes all-in with 130k. Do you call or fold? Read is that the all in is maybe a steal pair at best.

[boldie]

Open ended straight draws always look very tricky. the other guy can knock you out but you have 8 outs (assuming he has top pair). I can easily find a fold here though.

why not raise with this on the button though? 3 handed as one of the chip leaders I prefer to raise in this spot as the other CL must be sllightly worried about taking you on.

[Squid]

I did consider the raise but as I had been playing a bit loose at times I felt that the short stack would call anyway, he call before with Ten Eight to go all in so i felt a cheap flop was best

[boldie]

I did consider the raise but as I had been playing a bit loose at times I felt that the short stack would call anyway, he call before with Ten Eight to go all in so i felt a cheap flop was best

ok fair enough.

[temp0r]

limping 3 handed? 

[Squid]

limping 3 handed?

Sad i know but it was all in or nothing from most of the players, I had great fun betting 10k at the blinds from any poisition and picking off the blinds before the field thinned. opps sorry used the F word there

[turny]

you say pair at best... unfortunatly any pairs in front of you.

your only in for 10k easy fold for me.

agree with others though i raise preflop

[AlexMartin]

This is basic pot odds, you dont have the investment or the odds to call here.

[Squid]

thanks for the comments but I do feel if you are looking for pot odds at this stage it could be a long wait so anyway I called it and the short stack called as well. Hey presto they both had a ten!! short stack in front with Ten Jack

Turn to give me hope with the flush draw as well

River A Seven ah well it was fun while it lasted


and then today I get rivered twice by gunshots!!!!!

Still theres allways next week

[boldie]

thanks for the comments but I do feel if you are looking for pot odds at this stage it could be a long wait so anyway I called it and the short stack called as well. Hey presto they both had a ten!! short stack in front with Ten Jack

Turn to give me hope with the flush draw as well

River A Seven ah well it was fun while it lasted


and then today I get rivered twice by gunshots!!!!!

Still theres allways next week

it's not about pot odds in this case..it's a simple matter of are you indeed behind and what are the odds of you hitting..do you need to take the risk to call here or do you have enough chips to win the tourney if you fold here. That's why we advocated the fold.

[Squid]

Fair enough Blondie

[boldie]

Fair enough Blondie

lol @ Blondie

[Squid]

opps

[Smart Money]

I don't agree that the decision is about pot odds.

That would apply in a cash game of course but, at this stage of the MTT, your decision is more complex. Pot odds are part of the equation of course, but you should really be considering your tournament equity- especially as the all-in is coming from the player who has you covered. Therefore the payout structure is important too.

If the top 3 places paid, say, $1000, $600, and $400.

Then if you folded, the chip count and tournment equity (calculated from this website: http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poker-games/general/tournament-equity.html) would be as follows:

CL:     150k  ($778)
Hero:  110k  ($729)
Other: 40k   ($493)

If you called and lost, your equity (3rd place prize) is $400

If you called and won, the chip count/equity would be:

Hero:  250k  ($931)
Other:  40k  ($614)
Ex-CL:   10k  ($454)

So, calling and losing costs you $329, whilst calling and hitting wins you $202, so you would need to be a 62% favourite to make calling the correct decision.**

Technically, it's a little more complex than this. You would really need to take into account the ability of each player, the action of the short stack to act after you (we are presuming that he will fold here), size of blinds, even button position (if blinds were significantly large.) E.g. If you considered yourself a far better players than the other two, then you would have to increase the "favourite percentage" from 62% by some subjective amount (and decrease it if you felt the other players were better than you.)

Of course, you wouldn't have time to make as precise a calculation as above within your time period, but I'm sure it becomes a pretty instinctive decision to experienced tournament players.



**Contrast this with the identical position in a cash game: You have to put in $110k to win $150k, so you only need a 44% chance of winning the pot. It's easy to see from this significant difference in percentages just how different (and how much easier) a decision you have at the cash table.

[kinboshi]

Great post.  Highlights the difference between cash and tournament play perfectly.

As an inexperienced tournament player, I like to make a decision based on the 'maths', and then take into account the number of runners left, my opportunity to rank in a top position (for example, top 3), etc.  One of the major factors is do I want /  have to get involved in a marginal 'coin-flip' type situation, or can I fold and leave the hand with only minor damage confident that I have the capability and the opportunity to win those chips in far more 'comfortable' situations.