Millionaire Dilemma

[kinboshi]

You're on Who Wants to be a Millionaire.  Let's assume your name is Ed.

As Chris Tarrant would say "You're doing well so far" and have just correctly answered the £64,000 question.  Unfortunately, you also used up all your lifelines in the process.

So now he asks you the £125,000 question - and you haven't got a clue what the answer is (it's a question about ballet, not your strong point).

You have two choices:

• Guess - get it right and win £125,000 (and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to; get it wrong and drop down to £32,000
• Don't gamble and take the £64,000

What do you do, and why?

[Woodsey]

Gamble- Because the difference between £32k and 64k ain't going to change my life significantly. £125k on the other hand opens up lots of options for me and at least pays off most of my mortgage.

[matt674]

(and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to;

i was going to ask are you psychic if you know what the next question is - but then if you were psychic then you'd know the answer to the current question.............

all depends on how you value the £32,000 you stand to lose should you get the question wrong. If it means nothing then you guess and it doesn't matter if you lose - however to most people (myself included) the extra money could be put to good use somewhere which is why most people take the money.

[byronkincaid]

75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get 125K

(.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K.

so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money.

[byronkincaid]

(and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to;

i was going to ask are you psychic if you know what the next question is - but then if you were psychic then you'd know the answer to the current question.............

all depends on how you value the £32,000 you stand to lose should you get the question wrong. If it means nothing then you guess and it doesn't matter if you lose - however to most people (myself included) the extra money could be put to good use somewhere which is why most people take the money.

I read it like that too but I think he means MAY know the answer to

[AndrewT]

75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get at least 125K

(.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K.

so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money.

However, a certain percentage of the time, if you get the 125K question right, then you will get a 250K one that you know the answer to. (Implied odds)

If we assume that you will not get the 250K question wrong (you only attempt it if you are sure you know the answer), then you only need a 7% chance of knowing the 250K question to make the gamble worthwhile (9K costs needed to wipe out -EV from byron's calculation/potential win of extra 125K).

I'd say that the chance of your average Millionaire contestant who'd got past 64K knowing the 250K question was bigger than 7%, making the gamble +EV.

[kinboshi]

(and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to;

i was going to ask are you psychic if you know what the next question is - but then if you were psychic then you'd know the answer to the current question.............

all depends on how you value the £32,000 you stand to lose should you get the question wrong. If it means nothing then you guess and it doesn't matter if you lose - however to most people (myself included) the extra money could be put to good use somewhere which is why most people take the money.

I read it like that too but I think he means MAY know the answer to

LOL - yes I meant if you gamble you get the chance to be asked a £250,000 question you know the answer to, and also the chance to get one that you don't know the answer to.  Take the money - that chance goes.

Reminds me of this little sentence:  Richard the third was walking and talking ten minutes after his head was chopped off (comma removed for effect).

[Muahahahaha]

Gamble

You're only on there once.  It's not like a poker game when you can save it for a better position.

It's here, it's now.

You came with nothing, you're guaranteed £32K.  Not a bad days work.

Treat anything else as a bonus.

( Admittedly this aggressive approach collapses like a wimpering baby if I ever got to £125K ) .  I've got a £150K mortgage.  £32 is nice, £64K very nice.  But with £125K I can vitually wipe out the mortage.  That extra grand a month is genuinely lifestyle changing.

[Micko]

Take the 64k cause if i didt no the 125k Question i def wouldt no the 250k Question

[Nem]

75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get at least 125K

(.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K.

so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money.

However, a certain percentage of the time, if you get the 125K question right, then you will get a 250K one that you know the answer to. (Implied odds)

If we assume that you will not get the 250K question wrong (you only attempt it if you are sure you know the answer), then you only need a 7% chance of knowing the 250K question to make the gamble worthwhile (9K costs needed to wipe out -EV from byron's calculation/potential win of extra 125K).

I'd say that the chance of your average Millionaire contestant who'd got past 64K knowing the 250K question was bigger than 7%, making the gamble +EV.

Hmmm, definitely a tight one...

[Muahahahaha]

75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get 125K

(.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K.

so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money.

What if you can be pretty sure ( say 80% ) that it's not A, but it could be any of the other 3 ?

[OatFedGoat]

Great question. For the reasons others have stated, losing 32k from 64k is minimal changes to my life at the moment and so I would gamble. Even better if I can rule out one of the 4 answers.

[The Baron]

If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble.

With 4 choices I take the 64k

[Wardonkey]

If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble.

With 4 choices I take the 64k

If I can eliminate one of the answers thats enough for me to gamble. If I had no idea at all and had used my 50/50 then I'd take the money.

[The Baron]

If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble.

With 4 choices I take the 64k

If I can eliminate one of the answers thats enough for me to gamble. If I had no idea at all and had used my 50/50 then I'd take the money.

I'll have to think on that one. My instinct is to take the 64k with 3 options.