AA in a 3way pot....

[Senior Flushsky]

HI all. I'm a long time reader but first time poster...

Just interested to see how many people think this is an instacall or if they play the hand any different.

Playing a live tournament €100 buyin with 1 optional rebuy/addon for €100 and we're into the freezout stage. Theres 44 out of 124 players left and blinds are 500/1000/50

I'm sitting on 17.5k

UTG minraises to 2k. Its the first time he's done this. I havent seen him showdown a hand and he's been quite active. 2 orbits ago i folded KK to him on a QQ84 board (pot 28k) after i 3bet him PF from the BB.

I make it 5800 with AcAd hoping he has KK/QQ and comes over the top. CL directly to my left calls 5600. She's quite weak/passive. This hand could be anything from 78s up to KK. Just a flat calling machine that never shows any aggresion in pots regardless of hand strength.

Folded to UTG and he calls 5600.

Flop is Jc10c9c and UTG moves allin for 12300.

I'm trying to rule out KK or QQ now because i feel he would have 4bet PF but they could still be in his range here. I have 11800 and dwelling over my decision while the player to my left is counting out 12300 and looks ready to call.

I'd be getting roughly 4/1 on my money should one of them have a set

Easy call??

[pswnio]

A pretty sick flop, this. I'm worrying that UTG has made his set. I'm also worrying about a KQ maybe with from the weak passive; what's she got, if she plays weak, that's strong enough to call this?

In this situation, I think you're around about a 4-1 shot. This is a really marginal call. Horrible. Theoretically I fold - you're not completely dead if you lay down - in practice, at the table, I think I'd call and curse my stupidity once they were flipped.

[Scottish Dave]

if your sitting with the Ace Clubs which you are, id call, even if he has hit a set you have 9 outs, even if he has had a flush on flop you have 7 outs

id call

[tikay]

Nce Post Senior Flushsky, & welcome aboard.

I'm not clear from your Post what the average stack is, as I don't know the starting stacks, & this is relevant, as the hand could play differently if you were a shorty. But you have 17 x BB, so seem to be in tidy shape.

That flop is just horrible. Straight, straight draw, made flush, a set, or, to me, most probably, two pair. As Gary "Whacker" Bush says, if there's serious pre-flop action, & the board comes all-paint, everyone is at least "very adjacent".

I think this is a Pass. Not easy, but a Pass nonetheless.

You have 1 pair, & a the nut flush draw. If you don't improve you could be in deep poo. Sure, one of the others (let's assume they both stay in post-flop) may well be on the flush draw too, though I doubt it, except with maybe for the made straight flush.

A better situation may come along, & I very much doubt that we are ahead here, although another Club wll probably (but not definitely) be our only way to win this.

Pass. But then I'm a super-passive Rock. I doubt many would lay this down, & they may be correct.

I would push Online, (another Tourney awaits) but I'd Pass here.

[Senior Flushsky]

Nce Post Senior Flushsky, & welcome aboard.

Thanks Tikay. Been reading for over a year but thats as far as i went. Seems as blondepoker has joined up with BigSlick Poker in Ireland, i might get a chance to meet some of the posters on here so making a start.

I'm not clear from your Post what the average stack is, as I don't know the starting stacks, & this is relevant, as the hand could play differently if you were a shorty. But you have 17 x BB, so seem to be in tidy shape.

It was the grand opening of a new casino in Dublin. Cool hand Lukes. The buyin was €75 for 4k chips plus you could buy an additional 2k chips for €25 which went to charity. Top-Up was 5k so i reckon most availed of 11k chips. We were on the upper floor and didnt have access to the main screen so wasnt aware of exactly what the average is, but i reckoned i was there or there abouts.[/quote]

I normally 3bet a little heavier than less than 3 times the OR but i was expecting it to be folded around to UTG and hoping he'd push because i hadnt shown down a losing hand all game

[boldie]

this is a horrible flop and if you didn't have the Ace of clubs you simply have to fold..if you decided to take the shot of hitting a club or K in this case it's fair enough.,

[JungleCat03]

Assuming you get a call by the player on your left, you're putting in 11, 800 to win a pot of 53,400 so for the call to be +EV, you only have to have 22% equity, but it's a tournament so there's always other factors to consider....

First off I would say your actual equity in the pot, given the range of player's hands is somewhere between 35 and 40%.

Let's say the initial raiser raised with 99 and the cold caller called with TT, a possible scenario.

You would have 38% equity.

IR ,  cold caller (who you said was very loose) AdJc.

You would have 60% equity( this great situation is less likely although possible)

IR , CC

You'd have 23.7% equity (this is about the worst case scenario)

So even in doomsday scenarios, your call would be +ev, ie you do it again and again in similar spots you will end up with more net chips than before. (barring the small possibility of a flopped straight flush of course where you have nearly 0% equity)

As it is, I would say you'll have between 35 and 40% equity in a 3 way coup here, so calling it 37.5%, you'll overall stick your 11,800 chips in and average out at 20,025. That's a lot of chips to pass up if you fold.

If you were very deep you could think that maybe you could find better spots with lower variance than this high variance blockbuster pot. If you fold though you'll have 11 BBs. This is not a lot really and you will have to get extremely lucky to find a better spot than this.

To put it in perspective, for you to find a similar + EV spot with your 11,800 chips you would need to get it all in before the blinds pass through you with an overpair against an underpair, and this assumes the caller wouldn't be in the blinds so there would be a 2k overlay from blinds and antes. (this is for you to win the 20,025 theoretical tournament chips that you are passing up here)
You would be amazingly lucky to do this. 

Of course the variance is significantly higher in this pot, but with 11BBs it is unlikely you'll be able to play enough poker so that skill will win you masses of chips. You'll be reduced to hoping to get a few steals through or hoping to walk into a favourable situation, whilst here you have a very favourable situation in terms of expectancy, that is easily recognisable.

I think this has to be a call, given the massive overlay in the pot, even though most of the time you will bust out of the tournament, you are giving yourself over a 1/3 chance of winning a giant pot and a great shot at winning the tournament.

[AlexMartin]

omg, instacall. odds dictate a call.

[temp0r]

omg you passed and would of hit a royal flush wouldnt you!

...oh yeh and instacall.

[Smart Money]

Without the then you have a decision to make. As it is, your odds are massive here- my chips would be in the pot before those of the UTG player.

[AlexMartin]

Without the A of clubs.............. tricky, but im passing.

[Rapidseven]

Personally in that stage of the tournament, I would have raised him 6 times the initial raise, possibly more.

What this acheives is according to the other chip counts the other players would have to have a monster hand to call you, and your hoping someone has kings, queens, jacks or possibly ace king. Alot of fish will push with ace king regardless of position anyway.

How many times do you get aces and get paid ? The only time you do is against a loose fish who happens to have a big hand such as ace ten, ace queen, ace king or anything above pocket 9's, that 9 times out of ten they'll shove with them. Or an unlucky player regardless of ability.knowledge who happens to be sitting on a monster.

In my honest opinion, aces are only good for stealing the blinds or losing monster pots in the early and medium/late stages of a tournament anyway.

The flop was horrible to be honest and its great play if you actually thought whilst playing that you could possibly be beaten or drawing dead already when the flop came. Most players I see nowdays, regardless of what comes on the flop will push all-in with aces as they seem to think its impossible to loose with them, and when they do, they dont shut up about it, telling everyone who cares to listen to the dribble.

Would I call, I really dont know. In live play, you have the advantage of your eyes and gut intinct, this is how id make the decision after id done the math. So unless I was there, I would'nt be able to say what I would do in this particular hand.

If the hand was on-line, its an easy fold for me.

[Senior Flushsky]

Thanks for the replies folks. I decided that even if i was behind that i had outs to win the hand. My worst case scenario was that i was up against a set and maybe QQ with the queen of clubs so staright away, 2 of my flush outs were dead. I really didnt think this was an instacall but as some said, passing up this opportunity in a live tournie would be the wrong move.

I called and the loose player to my left called. I flipped my hand up first and stood up. The UTG player who minraised PF, called my raise and pushed the flop had QJo....loosey goosey to my left have AKo and neither had a club..wtf??

I was ahead all the way and hit my flush just to make sure. I've always thought my reading of my opponents was a strong part of my game, but i was so far off in this hand, it would have been a horrendous fold. UTGs minraise threw me a bit and i played the hand differently that i normally would have because of it.

So i've decided that from now on, no more contemplating hero folds with AA..I'm gonna go broke with them everytime because i have Aces....and nobody folds Aces!!

[AlexMartin]

Thanks for the replies folks. I decided that even if i was behind that i had outs to win the hand. My worst case scenario was that i was up against a set and maybe QQ with the queen of clubs so staright away, 2 of my flush outs were dead. I really didnt think this was an instacall but as some said, passing up this opportunity in a live tournie would be the wrong move.

I called and the loose player to my left called. I flipped my hand up first and stood up. The UTG player who minraised PF, called my raise and pushed the flop had QJo....loosey goosey to my left have AKo and neither had a club..wtf??

I was ahead all the way and hit my flush just to make sure. I've always thought my reading of my opponents was a strong part of my game, but i was so far off in this hand, it would have been a horrendous fold. UTGs minraise threw me a bit and i played the hand differently that i normally would have because of it.

So i've decided that from now on, no more contemplating hero folds with AA..I'm gonna go broke with them everytime because i have Aces....and nobody folds Aces!!

Ur gonna go broke here because ur not sure if you are infront and have a strong chance to be, plus you are getting great pot odds and you have outs anyway.

[Rapidseven]

Alex I agree with your reply 100%.

Senior, if you have that gung-ho attitude your trying to fight a losing battle dude, in a tournament, you'd only loose your chips and what ever the buy-in was.

However, play side games like that and experienced players will pick-up on your style of play, and if they put you on a big pair such as aces, your raises will be called, probably on rags and you will loose all your money, as you cant lay the aces down if your opponent catches some cards.

I will call 10% of my stack regardless of bankroll when its heads up or possibly in position against " tournament style " players in side games on a hand like 6 4, 5 3, 7 5, 8 6 etc etc when I put them on a big pair or even a big ace pre-flop, if I catch a flop I know for sure 9 times out of 10 i'll double through them, definately if there holding queens, kings and especially aces.

The beauty of calling with rags too, if a rag flop comes, the initiall raiser ( if your heads up with him ) will think he's smart and he'll check the flop to try and check raise you, if your there already you get paid, if your almost there, you can see 4th street for free, if you make your hand you double through him.

If a flop shows paint or an ace, its an easy fold, and you've only lost 10% of your stack. I can live with that as the gains you make when the cards are good makes it irresistable for me to call.

lol, tbh this is one of the reasons why im very poor in tournaments, I cant sit and wait for cards.