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Poker Hand Analysis
F/T live £100 f/out
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Topic: F/T live £100 f/out (Read 1231 times)
deputydawg
Sr. Member
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Posts: 314
F/T live £100 f/out
«
on:
October 08, 2007, 09:54:29 AM »
From Stoke last night:
10 players left, avg chips 48000, me c.75000 (2nd or 3rd), blinds 3/6k with 300 antes
On button with KQo and action folds to me
sb has c. 48000, (bb 25-30k but not 100% sure from memory)
I raise to 20 k
sb goes all in and bb folds
What do you do fold or call with c. 3 to 1 pot odds but potentially only 25k ish chips left but big chip lead if I win?
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Smart Money
Sr. Member
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Posts: 384
Re: F/T live £100 f/out
«
Reply #1 on:
October 08, 2007, 01:59:13 PM »
Easy call for me, but I think it's better to just chuck them all in initially giving them zero fold equity.
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temp0r
Sr. Member
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Posts: 683
Re: F/T live £100 f/out
«
Reply #2 on:
October 08, 2007, 02:10:13 PM »
if your gonna fold to a shove here you should of raised to say like 15k and saved an extra blind. the raise you made looks like it's encouraging the sb to shove or fold. to be fair this is simple pot odds you have a call here. play to win.
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TightEnd
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Re: F/T live £100 f/out
«
Reply #3 on:
October 08, 2007, 03:57:58 PM »
Call for pot odds, and a big chip lead
If you lose, push-bot your way back into it
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Flea
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Posts: 551
Re: F/T live £100 f/out
«
Reply #4 on:
October 08, 2007, 06:55:10 PM »
Yep it's a call from me, as long as they don't have QQ,KK,AA,AK or AQ then you're definitely getting odds to call and to be fair at this stage with the large blinds and ante's means it's generally all-in or fold anyway as any sort of play pretty much pot commits you. If you run into a monster in the blinds then that's just bad luck and at least you're still in no matter what happens in the hand.
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boldie
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Re: F/T live £100 f/out
«
Reply #5 on:
October 08, 2007, 07:37:44 PM »
I agree..either bet less if you'll fold to a push or call.
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pswnio
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Posts: 246
Re: F/T live £100 f/out
«
Reply #6 on:
October 08, 2007, 09:57:20 PM »
Having put the 20k in ... you're getting a bit over 5/2 on your money. You need to be 35% against the opponent's range to justify this on pot odds alone. It depends on what you think his range is. You are a little over 20% vs a combination of AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ. You are about 45% ish against a smaller pair. You are about 40% against Ax. I guess he might shove with any King - is that likely?
I think this is quite marginal. I also think that if you lose this one, you're some way below average chipstack at 27k and, given the blinds, that doesn't give you much leverage at all. If you fold, you have 55k left, still above average. For me, it would depend on whether I thought he'd make this move with a hand as weak as Kx. But he SURELY has to reckon on a call, which would tighten his range a little unless he just wanted to gamble. If I thought he'd push with Kx, I'd probably call. Otherwise, I fold. There will be better spots; at 27k, you have no choices left. Any unopened pot...
However, I agree that it's either a push or a smaller raise pre, and you should already have your mind made up before you make your pre flop move whether you'd call a push. A smaller raise is still likely enough to steal the blinds if SB and BB don't have a hand. SB might conceivably call for a 1/4 of his stack if you only put in 15k and push the flop regardless of texture but it's unlikely. A smaller raise allows you to get away and not have to make this difficult decision...
Edit : stupid me. 35% my arse. 28% more like. Which means that on pot odds alone it's a call. But I still have reservations...
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Last Edit: October 09, 2007, 08:24:20 AM by pswnio
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