Theoretical situation for discussion

[M3boy]

This hand recently occured in a £100 f/o at Luton.

10k starting chips
You have been playing for 40 minutes and are into the second level 50-100
UTG makes it 300 - he has been solid and showing down with good hands and likes to raise with them. This is the first time he has raised UTG.
Mid/late position flat calls - he has been very busy and has been in most pots (raised and unraised)
You are on the button with  and decide to call. (your read so far is UTG has big pair, caller can have a wide range)

Flop   

UTG bets out 1000 (as you would expect), the caller then re raises to 3000

You fold knowing that the re raise is coming from UTG, which it does.

What happened in that hand is now irrelevent.

It is the convo I had with the caller after the hand had finished - I said that it would of been carnige if I had held  . He said that it would of been stupid to play for your whole stack with that holding as he could of had a Full House.

My opinion was that it would of been too strong a hand to lay down, even though you would be racing against an overpair and a slight dog against 5x

Would you have pushed or folded holding here?

[77dave]

You have just said you are expecting the reraise from utg  so you must also be considering that there will be 3 way action at a showsown not just 2

if the hands you are up against are  and    then you are a 15% shot to win the pot

It is a marginal chance that one of the players has    or     but if they have floped a boat then good luck to them

i think the chance are that you are against 2 overpairs in which case your a 33% shot and getting your chips in at the right price but i think can swallow and find a better spot as you have hardly invested in this pot

Do you think that you over analyise the hands you play i think that you play all of your hands too seriously and play each one as if it will be your last. If you relax more at the table and if you didnt take it all too seriously you would be alot better off

example being after the flop you say utg bets 1000 caller makes it 3000 and the reason you fold is cos you know utg is going to reraise

[M3boy]

You have just said you are expecting the reraise from utg  so you must also be considering that there will be 3 way action at a showsown not just 2

if the hands you are up against are  and    then you are a 15% shot to win the pot

It is a marginal chance that one of the players has    or     but if they have floped a boat then good luck to them

i think the chance are that you are against 2 overpairs in which case your a 33% shot and getting your chips in at the right price but i think can swallow and find a better spot as you have hardly invested in this pot

Do you think that you over analyise the hands you play i think that you play all of your hands too seriously and play each one as if it will be your last. If you relax more at the table and if you didnt take it all too seriously you would be alot better off

example being after the flop you say utg bets 1000 caller makes it 3000 and the reason you fold is cos you know utg is going to reraise

Jim, I think you may be confused here - i was holding - the pass was easy, I did not pass because I knew UTG was going to re raise, I passed because I did not hit my flop- me saying UTG was going to re raise was just some info.

The question was to others IF you had would YOU stick all your chips in - I know I would in an instant. This question was meant for discussion.

How have I overanalysed this hand? UTG obviously had high pocket pair - it was not hard to get this read, also obvious he was going to re re raise - again pretty obvious stuff.

[TheChipPrince]

if the hands you are up against are  and    then you are a 15% shot to win the pot

Is it not 30%?



I think i'd still have to fold M3, what is the best % do you think you be to win this, realisitally, against AA and AK spades your 30%, against say red Queens and A5 tour just under 40%. Whats the best scenario you could hope for?

[M3boy]

Against 2 overpair or an overpair and 5x - you would be approx 40% to win this hand.

So, risking your 10k to win 30k - I couldnt fold in this spot.

[TheChipPrince]

Mathematically it may just about be correct, just think it may be a bit early to gamble... Depends on the quality of field I guess, and how much you rate your chances againt them...

[AlexMartin]

Depends on the comp and table makeup. Soft table, id ditch it, i want to play lots of small post rather than 1 big coup. Big bad tough comp, im all-in baaaaaby.

[RichEO]

Flop   

UTG bets out 1000 (as you would expect), the caller then re raises to 3000

You fold knowing that the re raise is coming from UTG, which it does.

If you have here I take it you push here instead of calling? Do you then have fold equity? I would think UTG raiser would have to think twice about calling now that there has been a raise and re-raise. Now you have to put mid position on a hand. Does he have a flush draw and overs? Will he fold it? If not, it gives us outs to pair our 6 or 7 now and we are a favourite. Is he laying down a 5? And do we like our chances against just one oppo?

I'm not keen on getting it all in calling, but if your pushing and they might go away then it's of course different. What was the outcome of the hand anyway?