High Stakes Poker - Gold vs Antonius (Contains spoilers)

[DaveShoelace]

Just watched it, I'm not sure I would class it as truly being the biggest pot in history as it was a split pot after they ran it thrice. Still pretty sick though.

[TheChipPrince]

Seen as you've wrote 'spoliers', can you post the hand, probs wont get to watch it...

[DaveShoelace]

Seen as you've wrote 'spoliers', can you post the hand, probs wont get to watch it...

Its available right now on poker tube.

But basically on a board of 

Gold went all in with 
Antonius had   

They agreed to run it 3 times , $750,000 pot

River 1: 
River 2: 
River 3: 

So Gold sucked out twice in a row and took about $500k, which to me means it wasnt the biggest pot in history (just)

[matt674]

So Gold sucked out twice in a row and took about $500k, which to me means it wasnt the biggest pot in history (just)

Only twice - he must be losing his touch...........

[OatFedGoat]

Just watched this. Fair play to Antonius for taking it so well. As Kaplan said, it would have been amusing if it was Helmuth.

[AlexMartin]

Thats the price you pay for marrying a huge non-nut hand deep. Antonius took that beat like a legend. Any1 else run it once or twice if they were in the coup? Id be adamant to run it once in Patriks shoes.

[UpTheMariners]

is there any advantage in running it 2/3 times?

[AlexMartin]

is there any advantage in running it 2/3 times?

no.

[Longy]

is there any advantage in running it 2/3 times?

Not EV wise but it does reduce varience which is an advantage of sorts.

[snoopy1239]

It's not the biggest pot won, but it's still the biggest pot, whether chopped or not.

[RichEO]

Gold asked to run it 3 times. Antonious said no once, then why not twice, and finally decided, ok lets do it 3 times. That decision saved him $250k ish

[AlexMartin]

Gold asked to run it 3 times. Antonious said no once, then why not twice, and finally decided, ok lets do it 3 times. That decision saved him $250k ish

Lets be as results-orientated as possible and convince ourselves we made a +EV move. There is no advantage to running this multiple times. Can someone do the long maths calcs here. Otherwise ill do them this eve. Im pretty sure you are disadvantaged but dont want to put my money where my mouth is without thinking about it.

[LLevan]

Surely the more times it is run the closer to the actual win percentages for each player to win the pot will be achieved. However when they run it more than once on HSP the turn and river cards are not shuffled back into the deck therefore on each running the percentages for the next running are not the same as they were on the original flop. Therefore I dont think there is a conclusive answer as to whether its a positive or negative running it more than once other than to say it cuts down on variance.

[Boba Fett]

I think the results are self explanatory, Antonius saved $250k by running it 3 times.  He had Jamie covered by it could have easily been against Laliberte and if he doesnt run it more than once he goes broke.

While we're on the subject of Gold, how annoying has he been on this series, complaining of bad cards, showing everyhand he plays, declaring the cards he had in the middle of pots, earlier in the series he had a go at Phil a few times and has been sucking up to the other players.  He's been playing pretty badly also.

[RichEO]

Running once, Gold's chance of winning is 22.7%

So he wins 0.227p where p is the pot size.

Running 3 times:

Gold's chance of winning all 3 is 0.0084
winning 2 out of 3 is 0.1109
winning 1 out of 3 is 0.2272

So overall:

0.0084p + 2/3 0.1109p + 1/3 0.2272p = 0.0084p + 0.0739p + 0.0757 = 0.158p

Running it 3 times puts Gold at winning 16% on average instead of 23% !!!

I think I got it right, and well I think that's quite a big difference.

Obviously if you're drawing you get less outs as you continue so your chances are shot at. Better for the made hand to run it more times - for example (to the extreme though..!) Gold has 10 outs in this hand. If they ran it 20 times, Antonious would be certain to win 10 of those as there aren't enough outs for Gold to win more than 10, he has won 50% for certain, he now has good chances of winning the other 10 too!