Your Tourney Life On A Flush Draw

[AlexMartin]

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

really? Tournament poker is about chip accumulation, depends on how his speech went down snoops, if it sounds like he has a huuuge draw, pass. 90% of the time im dancing here.

[boldie]

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

it might be a fold but definetly not an easy one my friend..I'm calling here most of the time and I'm just about convinced it's ussually the best play to make.

[ACE2M]

definately moving towards a fold here for me, would be definate if the lady player was not a tight player.

All hinges on if he has exactly .

The only hands he can make that exclamation with are a set or the .

If we assume the lady has a minimum 2 pairs then some of his set possibilties diminish and up goes the likelyhood of him holding exactly .

I fold i think and fight another day in a pot where i am sure my outs are good.

[MKKfish]

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

it might be a fold but definetly not an easy one my friend..I'm calling here most of the time and I'm just about convinced it's ussually the best play to make.

To be honest I'm probably folding to the initial all in let alone considering calling after a call to the all in lol.

To the 'it's all about chip accumulation' comment ; 100% kerrect - it is, not donking your stack and tourney life away on 3rd class draws. For those the advocate calling the all in I'm intrigued to know what you put both of them on?

As an aside I'd be interested what posters would have bet out post flop.

[LuckyLloyd]

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

it might be a fold but definetly not an easy one my friend..I'm calling here most of the time and I'm just about convinced it's ussually the best play to make.

Well, "my friend", the huge overshove from the women weights her more heavily towards a higher flush draw than the second guy. Because huge overshoves are traditionally big draws. You are hoping that either they both have sets or one of them has a set; the other two pair. However, for this to be the case one of them has to be making a HUGE mistake here and be massively overplaying a non nut hand. And also, because of the lack of a reraise pre it is unlikely that either has AA so it removes one of the possible sets you are hoping to see from their ranges.

I think this is a fairly trivial fold.

[NoflopsHomer]

I hate to boost the beagle's ego a little, but he's actually a good player and doesn't need to gamble his stack off on a marginal draw here (marginal because vs two people). He can find better spots than this due to some of the locals' fairly 'interesting' play.

Anyone's thoughts on Snoops going for a c/raise all-in on the flop?

[boldie]

I hate to boost the beagle's ego a little, but he's actually a good player and doesn't need to gamble his stack off on a marginal draw here (marginal because vs two people). He can find better spots than this due to some of the locals' fairly 'interesting' play.

Anyone's thoughts on Snoops going for a c/raise all-in on the flop?

I prefer the check raise to leading out here i think..but that's also because I don't mind calling here after leading out so don't mind getting my chips in the middle here.

[T_Mar]

I agree with Lucky Lloyd here - Its Mateygirl that is more likely to be on the flush draw, and for that reason I would fold in this spot.  I would have a guess at Mateyboy being ahead at the moment with 77.

[kinboshi]

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

it might be a fold but definetly not an easy one my friend..I'm calling here most of the time and I'm just about convinced it's ussually the best play to make.

Easy fold if our German friend is calling.

You're up against a set and a higher flush draw (proberly). 

[boldie]

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

it might be a fold but definetly not an easy one my friend..I'm calling here most of the time and I'm just about convinced it's ussually the best play to make.

Easy fold if our German friend is calling.

lol..that's the problem when you attend a BB..everybody immediately knows you stink

BTW..when is the next one again?

[MKKfish]

Assuming snoops is going to give us the result eventually I'm gonna stick my neck out...

Mateygirl    

Mateboy      

Based on...
(a) I think Mateygirl's all in is indicative of not really wanting a call - I think AJ or a set makes it 9k to go, (9k to get draws outta the way and to get something outta AK AQ etc)

(b) Mateyboy's comment is revealing imo - holding AKQJ suited post flop is a kneejerk instacall for a lot of peeps on the basis it just looks so damn strong.


I will of course bring my own vaseline to snoopy's revelation post.    


Vaseline applied.... 

[AlexMartin]

lol @ all the v.easy fold opinions. Each to our own but i dont get how this is ever easy when we dont have a healthy chips stack.

[MKKfish]

Alex[/url] Martin link=topic=29009.msg594442#msg594442 date=1195487782]
lol @ all the v.easy fold opinions. Each to our own but i dont get how this is ever easy when we dont have a healthy chips stack.

Over 45 BBs is plenty of time to play poker rather than bingo...

 


I think we may have done this one to death lol.

[Longy]

Right i have pokerstoved this as im not convinced by these easy folds comments. Assuming everyone agrees that 19k into 69k is the equation so around 7 to 2 or we need around 22.5% equity in the pot to make calling +ev.

Right with ranges i reckon are reasonable ie 2pr hands, sets, combo str8 and flush draws, combo flush and pair draws. I have included big aces for the lady and no random bluffing hands (which are a possibility)

I get this

  1,492,659  games     0.171 secs     8,729,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    37.281%     37.28%    00.00%            556470            4.00   { Td8d }
Hand 1:    23.366%     22.08%    01.28%            329633        19144.00   { AA, JJ, 77, AJs+, KdQd, Kd7d, J7s, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d, AJo+, J7o }
Hand 2:    39.353%     38.07%    01.28%            568264        19144.00   { AA, JJ, 77, AJs, A7s, KdQd, J7s, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, AJo, A7o, J7o }

Any comments, anyone think my ranges are miles off. I have Snoops as 37% 2nd fave with his hand and 10% clear on the equity he needs.

[MKKfish]

Longy,

Perfect for online or non travelling expensed live... but in this particular situation I really really think that a half decent player should be waiting for a better spot....

Cheers,
MKKfish