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Author Topic: odds/ Probabillities  (Read 984 times)
timberman
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« on: December 19, 2007, 02:40:45 PM »

to play to a good level, what sort of odds/probabillities should you be using in your game? at the moment the only time i use any at all is when looking at pot odds to call to make a flush or open ended straight draw, where else should i be using odds? Thanks
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2007, 03:03:11 PM »

This is 1st level maths in poker. Some may aruge that to play at a reasonable level, you can survive simply on this knowledge and experience. In truth alot of good players don't consider themselves mathematical players but intuitatively make good mathematical decision through experience.

The next level in Maths after this is implied odds calculating how much you could possibly win from someone if your hand improves.

  on a  flop, if you hit your spade how much more could you potentially make on later street from your opponent, can be figured into the odds calculation when calling a bet.

Reverse implied odds- How much you could lose on later streets by calling a bet and then be forced to call another bet, when your hand is unlikely to improve.

  on a       board where your hand is unlikely to get better and may well be behind.

Also in tournaments there are tournament equity decision where the payout structure dictates a different play then normal.

Example: Normal sng on the bubble

Calling an all in from a bigger stack with  can often be a major mistake even when you know your hand is likely to be ahead.

To be honest its a massive subject and i cannot hope to get anywhere near explaining things in one post. These examples are probably not the best but hopefully it gives you something to think about.

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TheChipPrince
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2007, 03:07:10 PM »

Try some poker odds calculators to help also (type 'poker odds calculator' into google)...
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2007, 04:06:40 PM »

what about calculating your M (or similar) etc, essential for tourney play
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Grier78
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2007, 09:35:05 PM »

For a detailed look at poker odds try 'Killer Poker: By the Numbers'.

The amount of odds knowledge needed depends on how much of an edge you think you have in a game, the smaller the edge the more knowledge required.

For instance in a $10 game you might ignore the pot odds and make a fold because you reckon that you can easily get paid off with the nuts later on. I call this "certainty theory".

In another situation where you know that you are surrounded by players who can play you off a full-house, a good knowledge of the odds can allow you to stick your chips in at the right time and sit back and hope. I call this "seat of your pants theory".
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