How good a re-steal spot is this?

[dino1980]

45 man sng, top 6 pay. Average 4500, 15 left, No reads

How good a re-steal spot is this?

Seat 1: coldkegs2go (1,670)
Seat 2: Killah Bs (2,260)
Seat 3: Katatunga (3,109)
Seat 4: zzpops (4,180)
Seat 5: obx65 (8,680)
Seat 6: millertime6 (8,650)
Seat 7: dino1980 (3,265)
Seat 8: Agamemnon_king (3,356)
Killah Bs posts the small blind of 120
Katatunga posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [ ]
zzpops folds
obx65 folds
millertime6 has 15 seconds left to act
millertime6 raises to 720
Dino1980:??

IMO

Pros:
-We have a nice stack size to do this with and the raiser has plenty if they fold but not so much that losing pot doesn’t hurt them

-Once we let the blinds go through us we have barely any fold equity left - although this is actually only of much use against two of the stacks at our table as a raise from the others pretty much comitts them

- although not in lolshoveaments mode yet (copyright noflopshomer) we will be once blinds pass through us + blinds go up every 6 mins

- we are playing for top three, not to limp in to the money

Somewhere in the middle (lol)

- against his range I don’t think Q-J plays too bad (40-60ish), although running it thru a fold% calculator I have, we need him to fold 41% of the time to make this break even (assuming we’re a 36-63 dog)

Cons:

- No reads
- It’s a mid position raise not a late pos raise

- a player behind us could wake up with a hand (a couple are shortstacked*)

- we have nothing invested in the pot

- there are no antes in this tournament

*Not necessarily a bad thing as two of the stacks behind us are desperate so will shove with a wildish range but we would rather shove and everyone fold than get looked up

[AlexMartin]

Its a decent shove spot tbh, but ur hand is in terrible shape against the hands he calls with. I prefer a more junk type hand here with less likelihood of domination. Also id be much more inclined to pick on zzpopz and Katatunga given stack sizes.

[AndrewT]

- against his range I don’t think Q-J plays too bad (40-60ish), although running it thru a fold% calculator I have, we need him to fold 41% of the time to make this break even (assuming we’re a 36-63 dog)

Cons:

- No reads

You've admitted you have no reads - how do you know what his range is?

If you're going to resteal with QJ then you really need to know if he's the sort of player that will fold KQ, AJ, KJ here, as calling with these kills you.

As Alex said, you're much better doing this with crappy connectors or total junk, just so you're likely to have live cards if he calls. I'm a big fan of restealing but would only do it with QJ if I was almost certain the villain's calling range was absolute premium only.

[ACE2M]

good post andrewt.

Image is everything here for you and him, you need an opinion on him here to shove, why do you have no read? down to 15 from 45.

Is he going to call you is the be all and end all here, if hes going to call your behind and potentially in terrible shape and 0 is more likely than top 3 and thats not a good spot.

If hes aware then his range for calling you with his stack is very big (basically every hand thats beating you).

With no read i fold and be annoyed that i didn't know if he was a folder or not.

[dino1980]

good post andrewt.

Image is everything here for you and him, you need an opinion on him here to shove, why do you have no read? down to 15 from 45.

Table break when down to 18 players, he was moved to my right.

[TheChipPrince]

I dont shove against this oppo in this spot personnally, not with 14-15 BB's, fold and be patient...

[LuckyLloyd]

Your table position is too bad to shove this hand for that amount. But attempting to look for these types of spots is definitely the correct mindset imo.

[dino1980]

tyty every1 for your replies. As an aside, and not being results orienatated here, I got called in two spots (orig raiser + shorty) by A-K, results irrelevant but I ran the numbers and against two players holding A-K (didn't run actual holdings just A-Ko and A-Ks) i've got 40% equity in comparison to their 30% and 30% . This surprised me as althoygh they've obv got each others outs, i still have to hit my 6 outs (+ flush outs) to win the pot so was surprised to learn i was a fav.

[ACE2M]

tyty every1 for your replies. As an aside, and not being results orienatated here, I got called in two spots (orig raiser + shorty) by A-K, results irrelevant but I ran the numbers and against two players holding A-K (didn't run actual holdings just A-Ko and A-Ks) i've got 40% equity in comparison to their 30% and 30% . This surprised me as althoygh they've obv got each others outs, i still have to hit my 6 outs (+ flush outs) to win the pot so was surprised to learn i was a fav.

you weren't favourite

[dino1980]

tyty every1 for your replies. As an aside, and not being results orienatated here, I got called in two spots (orig raiser + shorty) by A-K, results irrelevant but I ran the numbers and against two players holding A-K (didn't run actual holdings just A-Ko and A-Ks) i've got 40% equity in comparison to their 30% and 30% . This surprised me as althoygh they've obv got each others outs, i still have to hit my 6 outs (+ flush outs) to win the pot so was surprised to learn i was a fav.

you weren't favourite

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 197,388,576  games     0.500 secs   394,777,152  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    41.451%     41.29%    00.16%          81498078       321264.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1:    29.275%     03.01%    26.26%           5946921     51837696.00   { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2:    29.275%     03.01%    26.26%           5946921     51837696.00   { AKs, AKo }

[LuckyLloyd]

tyty every1 for your replies. As an aside, and not being results orienatated here, I got called in two spots (orig raiser + shorty) by A-K, results irrelevant but I ran the numbers and against two players holding A-K (didn't run actual holdings just A-Ko and A-Ks) i've got 40% equity in comparison to their 30% and 30% . This surprised me as althoygh they've obv got each others outs, i still have to hit my 6 outs (+ flush outs) to win the pot so was surprised to learn i was a fav.

you weren't favourite

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 197,388,576  games     0.500 secs   394,777,152  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    41.451%     41.29%    00.16%          81498078       321264.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1:    29.275%     03.01%    26.26%           5946921     51837696.00   { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2:    29.275%     03.01%    26.26%           5946921     51837696.00   { AKs, AKo }

Nah, Nick, what he means is that you are still a dog to win the hand. Their figures are skewed because the liklehood is that they split the pot.

[dino1980]

Thanks Lloyd, i did figure it was a bit odd and that explains it. I actually made a post on another forum to the effects of - i'm a a fav, that can't be right - but got no constrcutive replies.

[Colchester Kev]

Thanks Lloyd, i did figure it was a bit odd and that explains it. I actually made a post on another forum to the effects of - i'm a a fav, that can't be right - but got no constrcutive replies.

 

you mean there are other pages on T'internet ??

[Graham C]

p0rn.com obv

hence the irrelevant replies

[ACE2M]

Thanks Lloyd, i did figure it was a bit odd and that explains it. I actually made a post on another forum to the effects of - i'm a a fav, that can't be right - but got no constrcutive replies.

sorry, i should have explained. i had a huge argument online with a 5/10 plo player recently on basically the same thing and he just wouldn't have it that he was not favourite in the hand.