In need of a Cheltenham winner

[steeveg]

5-1 Denman?..hell..I would back him a bit at that price lol..that's a grand bet.

I think Kauto is about10 -15 lenghts better than Denman still..I thought Kauto could get beat last year as surely he had to make a mistake at some point but he is simply the best horse I've ever seen and the mistakes are gone.

oh i dont know about 15 len better,as you say though backing 1/1 shots at cheltenham is very tempting but a few over the years which just looked unbeatable before the race have been beat very easy, my main bet the other year was black jack ketchum had a few bets on him weeks before cheltenham, bleedin thing falls at the first or 2nd in a hurdle race,lol,i love cheltenham but its that competitive i cant say anything is a cert to be  honest, the bookies ar still offering 14/1 for first day to be heavy,i hope it will be but dont expect it to be heavy myself but just testing will do to give denman a chance

[bobby1]

I think the ground will be a massive factor. On real heavy Denman could run Kauto ragged and help something like Exotic Dancer or Neptune Coll run into the places if Kauto does falter in a true run heavy ground 3 1/4 miles.

On goodish ground I would imagine Kauto being given a quiet like last year for a circuit and then having the pace to go past Denman on the run in.

there is no way with the drainage at cheltenham and 3 days racing before it that the course will be heavy.

You are more than likely right Boldie but the forecast is for v heavy rain on Weds and Thursday

[boldie]

5-1 Denman?..hell..I would back him a bit at that price lol..that's a grand bet.

I think Kauto is about10 -15 lenghts better than Denman still..I thought Kauto could get beat last year as surely he had to make a mistake at some point but he is simply the best horse I've ever seen and the mistakes are gone.

oh i dont know about 15 len better,as you say though backing 1/1 shots at cheltenham is very tempting but a few over the years which just looked unbeatable before the race have been beat very easy, my main bet the other year was black jack ketchum had a few bets on him weeks before cheltenham, bleedin thing falls at the first or 2nd in a hurdle race,lol,i love cheltenham but its that competitive i cant say anything is a cert to be  honest, the bookies ar still offering 14/1 for first day to be heavy,i hope it will be but dont expect it to be heavy myself but just testing will do to give denman a chance

I remember backing Hardy Eustace at 33-1 to win the champion hurdle..first time he won it...not ante-post..but SP...simply because the fav was odds-on.. that's why i don't back odds on at cheltenham myself..but inglis and kauto look far better than the rest

[bobby1]

How do you see the Champ Hurdle Boldie?, I could have 5 bets and not get the winner.

[Horneris]

lol @ Heavy.

Good To Soft imo.

Boldie, im on Kasbah Bliss EW @ 16/1, placed the bet in Jan. Wasnt confident until he ran a blinder LTO, and i really fancy him as long as the ground is decent altho not gona get involved further until the day.

Probs do a fcast with Inglis tho tbf. The main reason i opposed him is the stats say hes too old. The stable isnt firing and he could be vunerable to an improver, but that said, i appreciate he has won convincingly against his rivals already this season.

[scotty2hatty]

Not even looked at the card yet - got that pencilled in for Sunday.

Will report back with anything I pick out so you guys know to avoid.

[boldie]

How do you see the Champ Hurdle Boldie?, I could have 5 bets and not get the winner.

I'm not going near the champion untill the day itsself. I think Osana and Harchibald are the two to beat..but well..I was on Harchibald when he finished second and only touch him now because he's just about guarantueed to be in the first 3 and at 7-1 you can therefore back him EW. it's the most difficult champion ever though, I think.

[Karabiner]

I think the ground will be a massive factor. On real heavy Denman could run Kauto ragged and help something like Exotic Dancer or Neptune Coll run into the places if Kauto does falter in a true run heavy ground 3 1/4 miles.

On goodish ground I would imagine Kauto being given a quiet like last year for a circuit and then having the pace to go past Denman on the run in.

there is no way with the drainage at cheltenham and 3 days racing before it that the course will be heavy.

The going at Cheltenham was definitely heavy for one of this season's earlier meetings, so it is possible.

[Horneris]

I think the ground will be a massive factor. On real heavy Denman could run Kauto ragged and help something like Exotic Dancer or Neptune Coll run into the places if Kauto does falter in a true run heavy ground 3 1/4 miles.

On goodish ground I would imagine Kauto being given a quiet like last year for a circuit and then having the pace to go past Denman on the run in.

there is no way with the drainage at cheltenham and 3 days racing before it that the course will be heavy.

The going at Cheltenham was definitely heavy for one of this season's earlier meetings, so it is possible.

Have you backed The Listener yet this year?

[boldie]

I think the ground will be a massive factor. On real heavy Denman could run Kauto ragged and help something like Exotic Dancer or Neptune Coll run into the places if Kauto does falter in a true run heavy ground 3 1/4 miles.

On goodish ground I would imagine Kauto being given a quiet like last year for a circuit and then having the pace to go past Denman on the run in.

there is no way with the drainage at cheltenham and 3 days racing before it that the course will be heavy.

The going at Cheltenham was definitely heavy for one of this season's earlier meetings, so it is possible.

sure everything is possible...but Noah will be speaking to God again before it happens at the festival. They are predicting 27-44 mill..that's not enough to make Cheltenham heavy.

[Karabiner]

I think the ground will be a massive factor. On real heavy Denman could run Kauto ragged and help something like Exotic Dancer or Neptune Coll run into the places if Kauto does falter in a true run heavy ground 3 1/4 miles.

On goodish ground I would imagine Kauto being given a quiet like last year for a circuit and then having the pace to go past Denman on the run in.

there is no way with the drainage at cheltenham and 3 days racing before it that the course will be heavy.

The going at Cheltenham was definitely heavy for one of this season's earlier meetings, so it is possible.

Have you backed The Listener yet this year?

I'm waiting for the ground, but if it's genuine good to soft or easier I'll definitely be on and confident of collecting.

I remember it ran in a 2M 5F novice 'chase there on G/S, and gave nearly a stone in weight and a two length beating to Star de Mohaison.

[Horneris]

 Specials: Cheltenham Festival Ground   

Tuesday 11 March 2008 - 14:00
 
Good to soft  4/9  1/2 
Soft  5/2  9/4 
Good  6  5 
Heavy  14  14 
Good to firm  500  500 
Firm  5000     
 

[boldie]

Specials: Cheltenham Festival Ground   

Tuesday 11 March 2008 - 14:00
 
Good to soft  4/9  1/2 
Soft  5/2  9/4 
Good  6  5 
Heavy  14  14 
Good to firm  500  500 
Firm  5000     
 

yeah the clerk of the course still says it will be on the soft side of good..no reason to doubt him the man knows what he's talking about.

[Karabiner]

The trouble is the the clerk of the course sometimes describes good to fast ground as good to soft

[steeveg]

the prices are for the first days official ground,so may be missleading for the gold cup on friday, there could be a big difference in the ground from tues to friday if the rain that is prediicted does come