now here's a stupid idea. WSOP ME FT to be postponed?

[gatso]

and what happens if something happens to a player (like an accident) that would prevent him from playing?

you could ask the same question about the usual set up. someone could get run over on the strip by a stretch Hummer the night before the FT.

errr you do know that there is a relationship between time and events?

I assume your point here is that something is more likely to happen given more time. true but not particularly relevant to the point I'm making.

Boldie's asked what happens if someone has an accident between qualifying for the final table and the due date for the final table several months later.

I'm asking what happens if someone has an accident between qualifying for the final table and the due date for the final table several hours later.

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

[doubleup]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

[fatshaft]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

[DaveShoelace]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

This is all a bit extreme, anyone who makes a WSOP ME final table is going to be in the firing line for ne'erdowells anyway, whether or not the final table is months away. They would be a bigger target surely in Vegas in the day off between making the final table and playing it, where said ne'erdowells frequent and know they are in town.

There are loads of variables that could mess this up for a player and there are plenty of reasons why delaying the final table is a terrible idea, but the off chance someone gets hit by a bus or stabbed is a bit OTT

[boldie]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

This is all a bit extreme, anyone who makes a WSOP ME final table is going to be in the firing line for ne'erdowells anyway, whether or not the final table is months away. They would be a bigger target surely in Vegas in the day off between making the final table and playing it, where said ne'erdowells frequent and know they are in town.

There are loads of variables that could mess this up for a player and there are plenty of reasons why delaying the final table is a terrible idea, but the off chance someone gets hit by a bus or stabbed is a bit OTT

OK, sickness then....it's not likely you'll get sick the very next day..but 3 months later and you could be...what's going to happen then?

[DaveShoelace]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

This is all a bit extreme, anyone who makes a WSOP ME final table is going to be in the firing line for ne'erdowells anyway, whether or not the final table is months away. They would be a bigger target surely in Vegas in the day off between making the final table and playing it, where said ne'erdowells frequent and know they are in town.

There are loads of variables that could mess this up for a player and there are plenty of reasons why delaying the final table is a terrible idea, but the off chance someone gets hit by a bus or stabbed is a bit OTT

OK, sickness then....it's not likely you'll get sick the very next day..but 3 months later and you could be...what's going to happen then?

You'd go anyway. I imagine with the long hours and partying, you are more likely to be sick when the final table is the next day. I doubt many people would forgoe the final table of a multi million dollar tournament for a case of the sniffles. Anything serious illness its just another hugely unlikely occurance in the hit-by-a-bus scheme of things

[ripple11]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

This is all a bit extreme, anyone who makes a WSOP ME final table is going to be in the firing line for ne'erdowells anyway, whether or not the final table is months away. They would be a bigger target surely in Vegas in the day off between making the final table and playing it, where said ne'erdowells frequent and know they are in town.

There are loads of variables that could mess this up for a player and there are plenty of reasons why delaying the final table is a terrible idea, but the off chance someone gets hit by a bus or stabbed is a bit OTT

OK, sickness then....it's not likely you'll get sick the very next day..but 3 months later and you could be...what's going to happen then?

You'd go anyway. I imagine with the long hours and partying, you are more likely to be sick when the final table is the next day. I doubt many people would forgoe the final table of a multi million dollar tournament for a case of the sniffles. Anything serious illness its just another hugely unlikely occurance in the hit-by-a-bus scheme of things

Must be good odds ??.........................I'll have a fiver that says someone wont make it!

[gatso]

yeah, you're more likely to get sick, have an accident, go mad, die or get trapped down a well if there's more time. the probability may move from extremely unlikely to very unlikely. but so what, how is that a reason to not move the FT?

(I actually hate the idea of moving it, just don't think this is a valid argument against)

[fatshaft]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

This is all a bit extreme, anyone who makes a WSOP ME final table is going to be in the firing line for ne'erdowells anyway, whether or not the final table is months away. They would be a bigger target surely in Vegas in the day off between making the final table and playing it, where said ne'erdowells frequent and know they are in town.

There are loads of variables that could mess this up for a player and there are plenty of reasons why delaying the final table is a terrible idea, but the off chance someone gets hit by a bus or stabbed is a bit OTT

OK, sickness then....it's not likely you'll get sick the very next day..but 3 months later and you could be...what's going to happen then?

You'd go anyway. I imagine with the long hours and partying, you are more likely to be sick when the final table is the next day. I doubt many people would forgoe the final table of a multi million dollar tournament for a case of the sniffles. Anything serious illness its just another hugely unlikely occurance in the hit-by-a-bus scheme of things

The possibility of being in some way got at by ne-erdowells is pretty unlikely to me, but I included it as many have been voicing that (unlikely) concern on =4.  However the stress that some of these guys will feel, while they wait for their 15 minutes of fame and possibly massive fortune could indeed be too much for some to bare.

[boldie]

the answer to both questions is presumably the same, the time-scale is irrelevant.

The answer is the same but the question is asked semi-rhetorically in the context of the change being made.

The change to this tournament has made the probability of the event hugely higher i.e. from virtually 0 to a measurable probability.  Its reasonable to ignore a probability of virtually 0, but its reasonable to consider a measurable probability.

Not just accidents that could be an issue, you've got 9 guys, many of whom are out of shape if the normal poker player lifestyle is taken into account, who will be thinking night and day for four months about their possible lottery win, some of whom (the more paranoid/realistic - take you pick) will also be looking over their shoulders at every step for some ne'erdowell to step out of the shadows, and we still expect these 9 to turn up in perfect health at the end of it?

I'd say the chances are very good that one of the nine won't be back.

This is all a bit extreme, anyone who makes a WSOP ME final table is going to be in the firing line for ne'erdowells anyway, whether or not the final table is months away. They would be a bigger target surely in Vegas in the day off between making the final table and playing it, where said ne'erdowells frequent and know they are in town.

There are loads of variables that could mess this up for a player and there are plenty of reasons why delaying the final table is a terrible idea, but the off chance someone gets hit by a bus or stabbed is a bit OTT

OK, sickness then....it's not likely you'll get sick the very next day..but 3 months later and you could be...what's going to happen then?

You'd go anyway. I imagine with the long hours and partying, you are more likely to be sick when the final table is the next day. I doubt many people would forgoe the final table of a multi million dollar tournament for a case of the sniffles. Anything serious illness its just another hugely unlikely occurance in the hit-by-a-bus scheme of things

OK ..say you are fairly sick (flu?) but not dying sick..if you are fairly sick you could go but not play to 100% of your ability..so that's you F'ed.

I hate the idea. There is no reason to do it..other than make Harrah's more money when they already suck loads of it out of the actual tourney. The WSOP is NOT in danger of dying and people still watch it on telly..so there is no reason to do it.

[fatshaft]

OK ..say you are fairly sick (flu?) but not dying sick..if you are fairly sick you could go but not play to 100% of your ability..so that's you F'ed.

I hate the idea. There is no reason to do it..other than make Harrah's more money when they already suck loads of it out of the actual tourney. The WSOP is NOT in danger of dying and people still watch it on telly..so there is no reason to do it.

Apparently ratings for the latest series of WPT have dropped through the floor in the US, along with one of the other annuals (maybe poker after dark?), so it could be that ESPN have panicked at the falling alure of poker on telly, and have tried to up the ante.

From quotes attributed to both Negraneau and Lederer, they're both coming out with "buzz" included in their statements backing this decision. It's all about bringing the "buzz" back. Sounds like they've been got at by some TV execs. 

[gatso]

OK ..say you are fairly sick (flu?) but not dying sick..if you are fairly sick you could go but not play to 100% of your ability..so that's you F'ed.

I hate the idea. There is no reason to do it..other than make Harrah's more money when they already suck loads of it out of the actual tourney. The WSOP is NOT in danger of dying and people still watch it on telly..so there is no reason to do it.

what if under the current format you're all fit and healthy on day 1 but then come down with flu and are ill in the latter stages of the tournament so you can still go out and play but not 100%. so what, tough luck.

should we make the ME a 1 day extreme-turbo to maximise the chances of everyone who's in good health at the start being the same at the end?

[Jon MW]

OK ..say you are fairly sick (flu?) but not dying sick..if you are fairly sick you could go but not play to 100% of your ability..so that's you F'ed.

I hate the idea. There is no reason to do it..other than make Harrah's more money when they already suck loads of it out of the actual tourney. The WSOP is NOT in danger of dying and people still watch it on telly..so there is no reason to do it.

Apparently ratings for the latest series of WPT have dropped through the floor in the US, along with one of the other annuals (maybe poker after dark?), so it could be that ESPN have panicked at the falling alure of poker on telly, and have tried to up the ante.

From quotes attributed to both Negraneau and Lederer, they're both coming out with "buzz" included in their statements backing this decision. It's all about bringing the "buzz" back. Sounds like they've been got at by some TV execs. 

There seems to be an assumption from the TV people that they're not creating enough publicity rather than the more prosaic problem that they're just not producing good enough shows.

[boldie]

OK ..say you are fairly sick (flu?) but not dying sick..if you are fairly sick you could go but not play to 100% of your ability..so that's you F'ed.

I hate the idea. There is no reason to do it..other than make Harrah's more money when they already suck loads of it out of the actual tourney. The WSOP is NOT in danger of dying and people still watch it on telly..so there is no reason to do it.

Apparently ratings for the latest series of WPT have dropped through the floor in the US, along with one of the other annuals (maybe poker after dark?), so it could be that ESPN have panicked at the falling alure of poker on telly, and have tried to up the ante.

From quotes attributed to both Negraneau and Lederer, they're both coming out with "buzz" included in their statements backing this decision. It's all about bringing the "buzz" back. Sounds like they've been got at by some TV execs. 

There seems to be an assumption from the TV people that they're not creating enough publicity rather than the more prosaic problem that they're just not producing good enough shows.

indeed..I don't even watch the WSOP ME final table..it's a table full of prats and donkeys acting like idiots (I present Mr Khan) playing something that a mass audience will never watch. High stakes poker is the only poker show worth watching (even though it's not "real" IMO)

[Jon MW]

OK ..say you are fairly sick (flu?) but not dying sick..if you are fairly sick you could go but not play to 100% of your ability..so that's you F'ed.

I hate the idea. There is no reason to do it..other than make Harrah's more money when they already suck loads of it out of the actual tourney. The WSOP is NOT in danger of dying and people still watch it on telly..so there is no reason to do it.

what if under the current format you're all fit and healthy on day 1 but then come down with flu and are ill in the latter stages of the tournament so you can still go out and play but not 100%. so what, tough luck.

should we make the ME a 1 day extreme-turbo to maximise the chances of everyone who's in good health at the start being the same at the end?

I really don't think this counter argument holds up quite as well as the "dying" one.

The chances of someone dying in that time might go up from 0.01% to 0.03% so not really worth worrying about.

But I don't think it's unrealistic to say that the chances of getting ill/flu-y in November rather than July might go up a significant amount and that this is entirely likely to affect at least one of the final table-ists chances of winning.