Complex Hand Analysis - The Flop - CUT OFF AGAIN

[Harry Demetriou]

After the button bets 10000 there is 25000 in the pot and the small blind and everyone else folds to you in the cut off seat.

In the cut off you are holding 

and the flop is: 

The button has 40k left and you have 200k.

What are you thinking and going to do now and what are you thinking the button has?

[ifm]

right, 3 choices:-

reraise, i have nothing......can i push him off any sort of hand here?, i think not.....he gets huge pot odds for any half hand here and i have nothing at all!!!!
call, the most likely option...i am still drawing to a very strong hand, if i hit i'm winning no doubts at all.
fold.........hmmmmm, he could definitely be stealing here (despite what the pro's think) and i have a good draw and as chipleader i can afford 10k because of the implied odds.
Ok i flat call, the implied odds are massive for a relatively small outlay.

[Bongo]

What do you do if you hit your straight but it's a heart?

[ifm]

i fold to a big bet
i'm guessing the next card pairs the board but there is a small bet

[doubleup]

I don't really like getting involved in this kind of draw unless I think there is a chance of taking down the pot if I miss.

There isn't really enough info here, but I might call here and bet 40k on the turn if a card hit that could have improved me.  i.e an ace, a heart 

[SupaMonkey]

I can only think that the button has a few kinds of hands here. He has either flopped a set, has a hit the king or has a flush draw (i'm especially worried about the Q-J of hearts here).

Ok, so that probably seems obvious but he also has position on me and also reverse implied odds. There are really only 3 cards i can rely on to win me the pot so i am forced to fold here.

This may seem like a soft fold but i can not see the button giving up the chance to double up if i give him the chance and lets face it, with a bet of 10k into 5 people he had to expect a call or even a reraise. i don't think that he would be throwing money away in his position and there is no doubt in my mind that the rest of his stack will be going in on this hand. In short, you are drawing thin and will be called if you go allin. I would fold here.

[lvlarc_uk]

I would push all in and try and push him off, if not I have roughly 30% chance of winning the hand.

[TightEnd]

I call

Maybe stick him all in on a turn card that either hits me or might scare him

not too happy about pushing just yet, think it will stronger to push on the turn to knock him off

[ariston]

Anyone who says fold should give the game up. If you are in the pot in the first place with this hand what are you wanting to flop, quads ffs? Anyone who thinks call to try and hit shouldn't have taken the game up in the first place, if you want to make your hand then have 2 cards to make it by getting the chips in. If you are intending betting the turn no matter what falls then a call is acceptable.
My prefered way of playing the situation would be to reraise him most of his stack. If I put him allin he may read me as drawing but a raise that looks like I actually want a call should be more worrying. I would never get myself in this situation in a million years as I would have put an information/semibluff bet before it got to the button anyway. He is last to act with a relatively short stack so does he really need a monster hand to have a stab at this pot? Even if he does have a genuine made hand you can still win the pot by hitting one of your 8 outs (assuming he doesnt have a flush draw with pair type hand). Sometimes you have to say "if he has it good luck to him" and take your chance.
Harry are you making notes on all our responses to these threads so when the situation arises you know how we play hands???

[ifm]

if it was just the button to worry about then you are right, i agree.
it isn't though is it? i am not going bust on a big drawing hand when i have only put 2k in the pot-that's just madness!!

[ariston]

Am I reading it worng? I know I am tired but if the button bets 10k into the pot and the sb and everyone folds to me in the cut off then it is just me and the button. If I am mistaken and it is a multiway pot then yes my answer would be different. I am very tired and will look at this again tomorrow.

[TightEnd]

No, you are reading it right

I do like the stop and go on a turn card that either helps me or scares him...I'm putting him on top pair with a so so kicker

[ifm]

ooooerrrr, i got mixed up!!
these threads are looking the same to me now!
my appologies Mr Ariston sir, i blame man flu

[Harry Demetriou]

I've been so busy with posts elsewhere about other things I had forgotten all about this.

Anyway the action is back to you and you have an open ended staright draw holding the 

with a board of: 

and it is just you and the button.

It costs you 10k to call and there is 35k in the pot.

I believe you have to try and put the button on a hand here and its' unlikely imo that he hasn't got at least top pair or a decent draw like the nut flush draw (Ax suited in hearts) or a straight and a flush draw with something like or even a pair and a flush draw (K something in hearts) and the reason for this is that there were so many people in the pot.

Hence I would conclude that at this stage you have to do some basic maths and work out what your chance of hitting the straight is and whether or not you are likely to see the river if you don't make your hand on the turn.

The pot is offering you 35/10 or 7/2 and there are 45 cards unseen and 2 in each of your opponents and your hand  along with 3 known flop cards so you need odds of 37/8 to make the call based on direct pot odds which you are not quite getting and assuming all your 8 cards are clean outs which they may not be if your opponent is on a flush draw or a bigger straight draw.

However the button also has a further 40k behind him so assuming you make your hand you can potentially get that off him too.

I personally favour the call here taking the pot to a total of 45k but I'm not sure this is that clear cut. Raising can be an option if you feel confident that you know your opponent or feel he is weak enough to make him have to lay down to a reraise but with 40k left its quite possible hes going to call anyway. Maybe the fold could be correct but imo my opponent is going to be holding something which means if I get my card I'm liekly to get all his chips.

Anyway nin real life as the cut off you call so we'll move to the turn.

See thread titled. COmplex Hand Analysis - THE TURN - Cut Off

[ifm]

I've been so busy with posts elsewhere about other things I had forgotten all about this.

I never realised that was you till just