Kimi Raikkonen and Poker

[Pyso]

The Biggest Leak Of All

After some careful study of my online game via Poker Tracker, I reckon this is my current biggest leak - Not responding correctly to a re-raise, especially the min-raise.

This is like being overtaken in a car race as you barrel into a hairpin bend and rather than slowing down along with the other guy with a view to giving yourself the chance to overtake him on the way out, actually accelerating, running out of braking room and then crashing and burning. Kimi Raikkonen is good at this at the moment and so am I.

This is how it goes down:

Example 1

I have KK in mid-position. Full ring (the blinds are $0.15/$0.25). I have $25 on the table.
An early raise to $1 so I re-raise to $4
Folded round to original raiser who re-re-raises to $15 which is about two-thirds of his stack.
Given this fact, I now fear that he has Aces. My Poker HUD is not working so I have no data on him.
I re-raise all-in assuming that I am not passing no matter what.
He has aces and I lose my stack.
Running Kings into Aces is nothing new in poker, but this hand is a classic example of perhaps doing the wrong thing pre-flop. I have been given a big clue that he has Aces, so why not just flat call here?
When the flop doesn’t help me if he checks I can take the free card. When the flop doesn’t help me and he pushes in the rest of his stack I can feel a whole lot better about either passing or calling (at least I got a look at the flop and took the chance to outdraw him).
When the flop contains an ace, whatever he does, I have a much easier time of it passing (if I do), which is a whole lot better emotionally.

Example 2

Same blinds. I have AK suited in the big blind.
A mid position player raises to $1. It is called by two players; I elect to just call given my poor position.
The flop is A, 9, 3
I bet out about two-thirds of the pot. The first raiser min-raises very quickly.
Folded to me. I re-raise all-in.
Noooooooooooooooooo!!! Why, why, why?!!!!
He insta-calls with a set of nines
I have to stop doing this. I know sets are hard to spot, but a very fast min raise should be setting the alarm bells going.
Again, why not just call? Of course I can also fold but I don’t think that will happen here unless I can actually see his cards and the evil glint in his eye.
By calling I get the chance to improve myself in which case I will get his stack, not the other way round. By calling I get to see what he does on the flop. I get the extra 45 seconds I might need to realise that, shit, I could actually be beat here. It might not prevent me losing my stack but on the other hand maybe it will.

The conclusion I am rapidly coming to about the (fast) minimum re-raise is this:

Human nature dictates that we all love to be right, love to say “I told you so”.

This is what the fast min-raise does. It says, “…ha ha! Gotcha!”
…and consider this simple obvious fact. A min raise can’t really be a bluff because of the ridiculously favourable odds you are offering someone to call. I would say 9 times out of 10 a min-raise means real strength. A min-raise can only really be a bluff against what you are sure to be a very competent, disciplined, thinking player (or one playing with ultra scared money) and you don’t tend to find those at $0.15/$0.25. So it was very unlikely I was being bluffed.

Do we agree?

Or are my thoughts just a bit too whacky?

Thanks

Pyso

[mondatoo]

Only had chance to read example 1 at the moment but basically you've said if u dont hit on the flop and say the flop comes q high you are going to contemplate a fold when you've put nearly 2rds of ur stack in already.There was a thread not that long ago about kk in aa maybe you could have a look at what was said then.At this level and for this amount just get it all in and move on.The recent gukpt newc event had this situation we're micky wernick i think had kk and it was raise re riase re raise all in now clearly in this spot you can only really put your opp on AA so fold was what he done which was obv the right play but in this spot they're always going in for me.

[Pyso]

Thanks for the response mondatoo.

My thread was more about the min raise and what it often means; which would make a flat call not a terrible play here with the kings.

I think I did hint that I probably wouldn't be folding however.

My second example was perhaps the one that really backed up my feelings on the min raise

[mondatoo]

I hate a flat call with kk here as its letting any ace see a flop and if an ace flops ur fooked so make him pay to see it.

At work at the mo will get round to your 2nd example at some point. Although a useful response is unlikely lol.

[Ironside]

i dont think you can get away in either case at that level

the first is just as likely to be AK QQ JJ and against some players

medium and small pairs

example 2 you could just as likely be up against a weaker ace

[Longy]

First hand insta ship it in, readless unless you are 150bb+ deep im never folding kk preflop. The only reason I flat here is to disguise my hand hoping to stack jj-99 on a flop which wouldn't stack off preflop.

Second hand is toughie and is really read dependent. I like you have gone broke in this spot and curse my idiocy when i get shown a monster. Make a note, i don't hate flatting here and reassesing the turn. As it gets value from lesser hands like ax plus pot controls against monsters.

You ever thought of writing a poker book Pyso. Pyso on hold em 72, " I get round to the hand history in this book" as a working title.

[Pyso]

Are you saying my posts are a little Tolstoy-esque  ?!!! 

Sorry, I can't help myself once I get going.

[mondatoo]

Longy summed it up 4 example 2 but as for you saying his very quick re-raise should signal a set any decent player wouldn't be insta re raising with a set would they as its obviously signaling strength and they shudnt be trying to scare you out of the pot. so unless you no ur opp is poor player this might not always signal such a big hand.Also although i probably play quite passively with ak would we not be looking to raise it preflop here therefore getting rid of junkie hands like a9 (total coincidence) kj an shit like that that could get us into trouble.I would probably raise to $4/5 and then if i get re-raised must be up against most likely aa kk or if flat called he could have jj aq maybe ak to.

[Longy]

Oh yeah forgot to say i deffo 3bet hand 2 preflop to about $5