Complex Hand Analysis - THE TURN - Cut Off

[Harry Demetriou]

The pot is now 45k

you hold 

you to act first with the button as your sole opponent and who has 40k left whilst you have around 200k

The board now reads:

 

You are to act first and I think that you have a lot to think about here and this is what this hand was primarily all about.

Think of what has taken place so far as foreplay and this is the bit that will require you to do most thinking.

What are you going to do? Check or Bet? And if you bet how much will you bet?

[thetank]

I make a bet of about 15k, any more and it would discourage a bluff all-in. The opponent might think I can still fold. If he calls I bet 15k again on the river whatever hits.

[thetank]

That's unless he has the lead (betting initiative), in which case I'd check with intent to raise.

[ariston]

Ok I would never get myself in this position but lets just say I did..... Bet 30k to give him incorrect odds to draw for his flush but make it so he can still reraise with a set/2 pair type hand. I dont like this situation and I don't like the way the hand has been played but the only hand that can be beating you is (if he has it then tough titties I am beat), there is of course the possibility of him having the same hand as me of course. I would have to be seriously out of touch to get myself in this position as I could not see me ever being here as its just not my game style.

[snoopy1239]

He only bet 10,000 into a 15,000 pot on the flop, so I don't put him on the King. The flop has drawing possibilites so you would expect the flop bet to be more with a top pair hand.

He flatcalled preflop with a low stack, so I don't put him on 9-6 or K-6. It's possible that he has something like K9 suited, but I'd be surprised.

He may be betting a set. If so, it's most likely to be 6s as he'd probably push with Kings or 9s to punish the limpers. Betting trip 6s is a viable option because he his in last position, fearful of the draws, but only betting 2/3rds of the pot, perhaps to try and entice just the 1 caller.

I may suspect a flush draw. He can semi-bluff 10k without being forced to place his whole stack on the line if he is checkraised.


So...

I would check raise. I fully expect him to bet this turn. Whether he has trip 6s, KQ, or the flush draw, I think he'll still bet, and he'll be forced to bet big, which in turn will give more value to your made hand.

If you bet you hand straight off then you run the risk of scaring him away.

A small bet is a viable option as it may induce a bluff. However, with the button being short-stacked, it would probably look a little too suspicious.

[SupaMonkey]

Without looking at any of the other's responses i would just raise all in here. If i had played the hand this way then i am not going to let the hand go once i have made it. An all in move might sound extreme but the pot is now 1/3 of my stack size and is definitely worth taking down here. I am probably missing the finer intricacies of this hand but i am not going to make my hand to then fold when i have made it. I am also not willing to let the button hit his flush if that is what he is going for.

Only a Q-J is ahead here and if he has that so be it, however it is unlikely that he raised on the flop with an inside straight draw unless he has Q-Jh and then i was going to lose anyway.

[ifm]

I would put the other fella allin, if he's drawing to a better hand he has to stick his chips in to hit it.

[thetank]

I totally disagree with other posters who are feart of a flush draw. Bet for value to get paid offa the K or some bozzo wot wants to get tricky with A10.

You're going to be against one of those two more often than you're against two hearts. When you are up against the big red pumpers betting 15k still ain't the worst play in the world.

Most playable hands here are drawing dead against you. Dinnae give em a chance to lay down.

[TightEnd]

Well, he could have a wide range of hands still...just in case there is the draw, you can't give him the free card....a check raise is tempting but I'd lead out and bet 40k, setting him all-in. My money is going in now while ahead of anything he's got, top pair, two pair, trips, flush draw witht he sole exception of  QJ. If he's got that, fair play...I've hit the hand I've been calling to hit, so that's poker

[Delboy]

Well, he could have a wide range of hands still...just in case there is the draw, you can't give him the free card....a check raise is tempting but I'd lead out and bet 40k, setting him all-in. My money is going in now while ahead of anything he's got, top pair, two pair, trips, flush draw witht he sole exception of  QJ. If he's got that, fair play...I've hit the hand I've been calling to hit, so that's poker

I agree entirely, if you attempt a check raise and he checks behind you and a heart rivers or the board pairs, then what?

 Taking the initiative would be my way forward

[snoopy1239]

I don't see why he would check if you checked.

[Delboy]

Good point snoopy!

Just went back and read the FLOP thread. Yes he would bet most of his possible hands

I had just typed "I would still lead out though with a 40k bet" when I thought I would be more likely to get more money in the pot with a check raise. If he's got two pairs or trips he's more likey to bet out than he is to call for his stack.

So I've changed my mind.

Great thread(s) Harry

[ifm]

though in fairness snops, people don't often do what you might expect.
satelites spring to mind lol

[snoopy1239]

though in fairness snops, people don't often do what you might expect.
satelites spring to mind lol

I think that even for a unpredicatble player, checking the turn from the button would be too dangerous.

[12barblues]

Is there another thread with the continuation of this?

It's the best hand analysis thread(s) by far. Great stuff. But I'm dying from frustration here.....what happened?