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boldie
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« on: July 17, 2008, 10:11:14 AM » |
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Reading the Scotsman today and on the front page is the graph showing the fall in HBOS shares over the past year. 75% from a high of 10.8 down to 2.54 (ish).
I'm not much of a wizkid when it comes to shares but surely the company is now undervalued and the shares should go up? The shares are now also low enough for a take over to be realistic (or atleast an attempt at one).I would expect the shares to shoot up again relatively soon (within a year)
Anyone disagree that this is the time to lump onto HBOS?
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Suited_Jock
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2008, 10:12:35 AM » |
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Only if they get shot of those feckin irritating adverts.. they do my nut in!
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TheChipPrince
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2008, 10:23:11 AM » |
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***Waits for Tightys opinion***
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The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
RIP- TheChipPrince - $17,165
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TightEnd
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2008, 10:24:25 AM » |
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**** trying not to give an opinion *****
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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Acidmouse
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2008, 10:25:51 AM » |
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investing in any shares in these uncertain times I would avoid.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2008, 10:26:27 AM » |
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***** still trying ******
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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boldie
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2008, 10:27:18 AM » |
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***** still trying ******
Was rather hoping for one from your goodself Tighty. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Graham C
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2008, 10:27:26 AM » |
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Been wondering the same myself but have held off buying any. I'm not the best at working out who's going to do well or not. You'd have though it was a great time to buy but I did this with Party (obv unrelated) thinking they couldn't get any worse........... gg Party wp, ul.
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Graham C
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2008, 10:27:45 AM » |
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***** still trying ******
We all await the words of the wise one  |
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Jon MW
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2008, 10:28:29 AM » |
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My guess is that they're undervalued but that they could fall even further.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
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AndrewT
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2008, 10:28:49 AM » |
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Surely the only truly reliable, 100% guaranteed effective investment plan at present are the staking boards.
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boldie
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2008, 10:31:06 AM » |
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My guess is that they're undervalued but that they could fall even further.
Maybe so but if you can hold on to them for a while and don't put your entire savings on them I can not help but see them go up again. I am awaiting words of the wise one on this one though as I'm really interested to see what he makes of it. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2008, 10:33:54 AM » |
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ok, sigh
some very general thoughts
- we're in my opinion in the early-mid stages of a bear market.
- why? the economic news is getting worse. I think a recession is here-ish. Pain is yet to come from personal and corporate bankruptcies, and credit card problems given high levels of borrowing
- so long long long term you may be right, markets will turn. However its probably too early
- HBOS is an aggressive bank. It has high market shares in aggressive lending areas such as self certificated mortgages, unsecured lending etc etc.. its a comparatively new entrant to its markets during a big growth phase when economies were storming..its not a big leap of faith to suggest it may suffer more from bad debts than some more conservative competitors
- However it did raise capital from its shareholders in the last year. This is good long term but short term hangs over the share price...buyers are full up after the rights issue
Personally I would steer clear. You're right, the "value" is far better than it was in basic share price terms but the forecasting of the next two years is really tricky.
Wait it out
I would particularly avoid Barclays (thinnest capital ratios of the lot).
I might punt on smaller building societies with real risk captial (ie if you lose it its not the end of the world for you)
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Logged
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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TightEnd
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2008, 10:34:41 AM » |
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****still trying****
failed.
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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boldie
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2008, 10:41:25 AM » |
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ok, sigh
some very general thoughts
- we're in my opinion in the early-mid stages of a bear market.
- why? the economic news is getting worse. I think a recession is here-ish. Pain is yet to come from personal and corporate bankruptcies, and credit card problems given high levels of borrowing
- so long long long term you may be right, markets will turn. However its probably too early
- HBOS is an aggressive bank. It has high market shares in aggressive lending areas such as self certificated mortgages, unsecured lending etc etc.. its a comparatively new entrant to its markets during a big growth phase when economies were storming..its not a big leap of faith to suggest it may suffer more from bad debts than some more conservative competitors
- However it did raise capital from its shareholders in the last year. This is good long term but short term hangs over the share price...buyers are full up after the rights issue
Personally I would steer clear. You're right, the "value" is far better than it was in basic share price terms but the forecasting of the next two years is really tricky.
Wait it out
I would particularly avoid Barclays (thinnest capital ratios of the lot).
I might punt on smaller building societies with real risk captial (ie if you lose it its not the end of the world for you)
Thanks for that mate |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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