Ugh, not certain on best line in donkament, can we fold?

[MANTIS01]

I would probably have called anyway just to see if I was right

T-Mar-ref: re-raise on the flop. At this time you don't know he has a K. Later on when we see all the action that develops your strat looks more solid and it seems very likely that he would now stack the flop. But rewind to the flop itself, before you have all this extra info. Alex who is seen as a conservative player bets 1K into a 1.2K pot around bubble time. This looks like a bet that can be easily pressured. This is why we lead out no? We want to put a bet in that looks like it can be pressured. So now our oppo can raise us with atc including complete air. If we now raise almost every hand folds. We really do not want that. We have set the trap and now our oppo has bitten we don't want to panic too soon or we will blow our cover. If we do re-raise the flop we give a hand as strong as K-10 a way out and we don't want that. Err, or do we?

[T_Mar]

Fair play mantis but if he's raising with air - how much you planning on getting out of him on later streets? In all probability he shuts down now with air.... By reraising I think you get the max value the times he does have some kind of hand... obv he sucked out here but thats besides the point.

I'm not so sure of myself that I know this to be the best line but still think I prefer it at the moment..

[TightEnd]

Alex..I haven't read the thread yet apart from OP


Why no 3 bet on the flop? looking to get enough in to push the turn as a reasonably sized bet?

once you flat the rr, i think I check call the turn and call bets on the river

i think your flop bets and turn action are inconsistent,one is smallball (no 3 bet), one then inflates the pot if that makes sense

off to read thread

[TightEnd]

ok, not a million miles off from others then.

though most wouldn't 3 bet, they'd then c/call turn

[pokerfan]

$100 FO. Average stack 17k, our stack 35k, villain 30k. 20 get paid, 24 left. Blinds 300/600. Villain seems pretty straightforward and solid for past hour or so, hasnt got out of line at all and looks on the tigher side

sounds just like my pal tbag, his faveourite trick is flatting from sb or checking his option with AA. could quite easily be the case here.
then of course he can never get away when hes beat.

[Longy]

sounds just like my pal tbag, his faveourite trick is flatting from sb or checking his option with AA. could quite easily be the case here.
then of course he can never get away when hes beat.

Hand analysis over it's pokerfan's mate tbag and he has aa 100% of the time FACT.

[ZZZZZZZROPE]

sounds just like my pal tbag, his faveourite trick is flatting from sb or checking his option with AA. could quite easily be the case here.
then of course he can never get away when hes beat.

Hand analysis over it's pokerfan's mate tbag and he has aa 100% of the time FACT.

 

[Rupert]

Alex, if you 3 bet the flop, do you think villain will spazz out with his KT and ship it in or do you think he'd fold/call?  Like if you had to decide either way which do you think it would be?  Do you think he knew what he was doing?

[action man]

i never fold here. im happy to get it all in on the flop vs 43

[AlexMartin]

Alex, if you 3 bet the flop, do you think villain will spazz out with his KT and ship it in or do you think he'd fold/call?  Like if you had to decide either way which do you think it would be?  Do you think he knew what he was doing?

I am pretty sure if i 3b the flop he folds all but some crazy played AA/AK and K3/34/33/44. I really dislike b/3b the flop as we fold out all the hands we can extract from on later streets and there are so few big hands he can continue with (guessing roughly <10% of his range). In answer to your Q rupert, he definitely folds K10 if we 3b the flop.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: AlexMartin

I needed more time tbh to go through the hands but i remember thinking oh fuck i hate that small turn bet, but still called when he shoved over my cr.

I think this is a good comment and highlights the tremendous value the PHA Board has for all of us looking to improve as poker players. When time is limited it is pretty difficult to manage and consider every factor of situations we find ourselves in. Being able to dissect these hands when time is not an issue is incredibly useful to us. Every sports competitor will practise so when they find themselves in live situations their instincts are that much sharper. I think the benefit we get from this facility is well worth the risk of being called a 'spaz' or a 'tard' every now and then.

The time factor allows us to look at every aspect of this particular tournament situation. We are cruising along on 35k when the average is just 17k. Our oppo is tight and solid. Importantly he knows we are tight and solid as well. It is around bubble time so he isn't going to be throwing his chips away. When he bets 2k on the turn he knows 100% we aren't folding. We have just called a 2k raise into a smaller pot on the flop so we are never giving the hand up to a further 2k on the turn. So his bet tells us he doesn't want or expect us to fold. Considering all this do we need to get into a raising war with this guy on the turn? Especially because his stack can cripple us. At the time Alex picked up on the small bet and thought it was odd but pushed anyway. Now with time we can see why it was odd.

If we just called the 2k turn bet the pot will be tipping 11k and with a bit of river action it's going to be a very decent pot to win. I know Alex is concerned about squeezing the pips out of the value in this hand but given the time to look at the situation thoroughly maybe this thought process didn't fit the situation very well.   

[T_Mar]

So Alex, presuming you happy with how things went on the flop... how would you play the turn differently .... bet/3bet AI,  and value bet river if he cold calls?

[AlexMartin]

So Alex, presuming you happy with how things went on the flop... how would you play the turn differently .... bet/3bet AI,  and value bet river if he cold calls?

i think i would trust my readz lol. When he bets small on the turn i think i should just go into c/c mode provided river bet isnt too big and let him get some value. Given what iv seen of him i doubt he goes for valuetown shove on the end and probs tries to milk me which does a lot less damage.  Probs this line is best in a comparatively deep end-game structure, with CR flop or c/c, c/r turn being best when shallower. I dont think i should change the flop play that much given the nature of the opponent and our long-term equity in this type of matchup.

[pokerfan]

sounds just like my pal tbag, his faveourite trick is flatting from sb or checking his option with AA. could quite easily be the case here.
then of course he can never get away when hes beat.

Hand analysis over it's pokerfan's mate tbag and he has aa 100% of the time FACT.

why are you flaming me?
i merely stated that a pal of mine (regardless of nickname) falls into the exact player type given in the description,and he loves to get tricky in the blinds with AA.
this could quite easily be the case here and our hero is miles in front.

[Longy]

sounds just like my pal tbag, his faveourite trick is flatting from sb or checking his option with AA. could quite easily be the case here.
then of course he can never get away when hes beat.

Hand analysis over it's pokerfan's mate tbag and he has aa 100% of the time FACT.

why are you flaming me?
i merely stated that a pal of mine (regardless of nickname) falls into the exact player type given in the description,and he loves to get tricky in the blinds with AA.
this could quite easily be the case here and our hero is miles in front.

It was a joke, meh i apologise if i offended you.