Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite

[MereNovice]

Satellite for a £10 entry tournament so not exactly huge stakes, I know, but the principles are the same, independent of stakes.
6 players left, 5 seats available, 6th place gets his entry fee back (or thereabouts).
Blinds are 1K/2K.
Blinds increase every 7 minutes.

I’m not sure about the exact stack sizes but these are near enough:


UTG:  42K  chip leader
HJ: 10K
CO: 14K
Button: 12K
SB: 18K
BB: 28K (me)


UTG min raises.
Everybody folds to me.
I have AA in the BB and go all-in.
UTG calls with JJ and flops a set which holds up – I bubble.

I’m sure that this situation will have been discussed before but I’d appreciate comments.
Is it lunacy to take on the one guy who could knock me out when I’m a clear 2nd place?
The reason I did it was because
a) I thought I had enough chips to make him fold – I thought that he would realise that I wouldn’t be risking my tournament on anything less and, if he lost, he’d be right back in the mire
b) once everybody else starts going all-in as they feel the pressure of being blinded out, it’s possible that they might get lucky (or steal enough) to put me under real pressure – although, I guess this would be unlikely with 4 of them being roughly equal stacked and way behind me.

I didn’t have much information on anyone else on the table but clearly, the chip leader hadn’t been just twiddling his thumbs to accumulate that stack.

[Charlie44]

imo it depends on the likelihood of him calling. Lets assume you think there is 1 in 5 chance in him calling. To simplify things assume he is only calling with another big pair, if he calls you have approx 80 % chance of winning hand. (AA v KK is about 80%)

Then :

80% chance he will fold you will gain 7 blinds
16% chance (20% x 80%) he will call and you will double up.
4% chance (20% x 20%) you will call and will loose hand, and be eliminated.

This risk is  worth taking in current situation because chance probably greater than 4% of you being eliminatied by folding all hands.

However to other extreme if you think he is almost certain to call, there is 20% chance of you being eliminated from the tournament. I you think you should fold in these circumstances and hope somebody goes out before you are blinded out. 

In the absence of any other info I think you did right thing. You were very unlucky this guy chose (stupidly imo) to call with JJ and that he hit his hand.

[MereNovice]

If my memory is correct, I didn't have much information on the UTG.
Therefore, I made the assumption that he would play like me (ok, that may be a bad starting point) and lay down anything but AA because he didn't need to risk a position in which he was sailing into the seats. However, there's always the chance that he is a macho kind of guy who can't fold, so perhaps I should have considered that.
Also, the initial minimum raise indicated to me that he wasn't an experienced player since, surely, he wants to be taking the blinds pre-flop, not playing flops. If he's going to call an all-in from the 2nd highest stack then he should be going all-in initially, in which case, I might well have passed the AA.

[Charlie44]

If my memory is correct, I didn't have much information on the UTG.
Therefore, I made the assumption that he would play like me (ok, that may be a bad starting point) and lay down anything but AA because he didn't need to risk a position in which he was sailing into the seats. However, there's always the chance that he is a macho kind of guy who can't fold, so perhaps I should have considered that.
Also, the initial minimum raise indicated to me that he wasn't an experienced player since, surely, he wants to be taking the blinds pre-flop, not playing flops. If he's going to call an all-in from the 2nd highest stack then he should be going all-in initially, in which case, I might well have passed the AA.

Agree completely. Imo calling all in would have been bad. Assuming he is holding a pair, 20% of the time you are being eliminated. More chance of qualifying by folding all hands.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

[MereNovice]

Can you elaborate?

[Rookie (Rodney)]

Results orientated much?

[MereNovice]

Results orientated much?

You're still too cryptic for me, mate.
I'm not worried that the JJ outdrew the AA so the result of the hand is immaterial.
The question is whether it is right to take on the chip leader when there is a reasonable chance that he might call you.

[Longy]

This looks fine to me. I would shove aces here and utg's call with jj is pretty awful here. There are situations on the bubble where folding aa is correct this isn't one of them imo.

[mondatoo]

This looks fine to me. I would shove aces here and utg's call with jj is pretty awful here. There are situations on the bubble where folding aa is correct this isn't one of them imo.

If we were the chip leader guy would you fold Longy? With your stack size i think it's ok to play the Aces as although your looking good for the seat your certainly not guarenteed it yet.

[Longy]

If i was chip leader here i would have shoved pre probably, we are only playing 14bb effective given the other stacks.

As played i think it pretty standard fold for the chip leader as he has no reason to think that his hand plays well against our range and risking 2/3 of his stack on the bubble of a satellite in this spot is pretty gross.

[mondatoo]

MEH I should read post properly didn't click on cl guy was jj guy lol.If we have a 50k stack how do you play this.

[MC]

I think this is a fold.

Surely guaranteed a seat when 2nd out of 6 with 5 seats, and the guy that raises is the only guy that can bust you.

[ZZZZZZZROPE]

I think this is a fold.

Surely guaranteed a seat when 2nd out of 6 with 5 seats, and the guy that raises is the only guy that can bust you.

id tend to agree

[MereNovice]

I think this is a fold.

Surely guaranteed a seat when 2nd out of 6 with 5 seats, and the guy that raises is the only guy that can bust you.

id tend to agree

I'm permanently out of position against the chip leader so I won't be able to put pressure on the small stacks later without considering that he might push against me.
Also, although I didn't think of this at the time (and it may just be paranoia kicking in), perhaps he's got it in for me and is going to raise my BB every time because he knows that I'm the one least likely to challenge him?
Does this alter things?