But what if the final table was Longy, Royal Flush, The Tank,
Phil Ivey etc
lol, spot the difference. Flushy's never that good.
As for the question of ICM accurately reflecting your chances of winning. It's a model that works for relatively short stacked poker situations such as sit n gos where the average stack when short handed is usually less than 15 big blinds.
If players are all relatively deep then it's no longer about ICM. More options exist than folding and shoving and the Phil Iveys of this world will have a chance to bring their edge to bear as they play poker on the flops, the turns and and the rivers.
ICM analysis tools such as SnG powertools and SnGWiz will flag a hand if players are more than 10BB deep. A message comes up saying that you might want to consider tactical options.
If the stacks are shorter at the final table, say the average stack is 10BBs, and you utilize ICM well, Phil Ivey will have very little edge on you. ICM in this case then would reflect your chances of winning.
If the average stack is 60BBs, not so much. I'll see you by the cashiers desk coz I'm getting 8th.