any 2 against a nit

[byronkincaid]

so i used to think you had implied odds to pretty much call any 2 against a total nit. then i had a long discussion with someone who convinced me that this is actually not true cos you have no fold equity on the flop and to make the numbers work you need some when you flop some kind of draw. but now another great player has said lol I'm calling any 2 against a nit. so my question is

You have  and a 7/1 raises UTG to 4xBB. you have 100K datamined hands on him and he only does this with Aces and always goes all in on the flop, every flop even if it's super scary.

do we have implied odds to call with 100BB stacks? what about  ? or  ?

[MC]

I think you have to be in a reasonable position. Calling one behind with anything like this with others to act doesn't really work...

But say you're on the button or in big blind or something. Def worth calling with any connected cards (well from 56 up, inc 79 and things) if you're that sure he has aces and will go with it. How often do you flop a set with 72 though? Don't think you could argue hands like that are worth it.

[AlexMartin]

so i used to think you had implied odds to pretty much call any 2 against a total nit. then i had a long discussion with someone who convinced me that this is actually not true cos you have no fold equity on the flop and to make the numbers work you need some when you flop some kind of draw. but now another great player has said lol I'm calling any 2 against a nit. so my question is

You have  and a 7/1 raises UTG to 4xBB. you have 100K datamined hands on him and he only does this with Aces and always goes all in on the flop, every flop even if it's super scary.

do we have implied odds to call with 100BB stacks? what about  ? or  ?

this could never happen. no-on shoves 96BB into a 11BB pot.

Feel free to ridicule this, im just jotting my thoughts now.

Coz im bored i figure (and yeah this is bored rough math and quite pointless but i found the excercise kinda fun):-

Assume he always goes broke and shoves
Assume we always fold unless we flop 2p+ on a non-Ace board. We always get it in ahead.
You can never use fold equity, never go with a draw unless it is a str8 flush draw, or pair+ FD (pair+str8 draw wont always have odds to call shove).

So backward working, we are calling 4BB pre out of 100BB stack so roughly 20-1 implied..... (*see note for why reduced- complete random assignment but its okish, obv cant do it thorough coz of board textures, vulnerability of certain hands etc etc)


u need to be flopping big, 2p+, but only need to flop it about 1 time in 15 ish....1/15*100= 6.6r% (*odds cut from 20ish to allow for outdraws/Ace hitting flop etc).  will u flop big enough w 56s to allow a call, according to the Math in "the science of poker". Really didnt wanna go through it all.

1.3% of time u flop str8
1% of time u flop flush
Odds of flopping split 2 pr 2%
Doesnt have odds of FH/trips but i think about 1%
Odds of monster draw, about 1.5%

= about 7% ish of the time u flop big enough, which is more than 6.6 and hence calling is OK w 100BB.


flame away

[byronkincaid]

Thanks Alex, I don't think it's pointless cos you do get nits who are never ever gonna fold their aces no matter what.

so suited connectors are fine but we can say that the "call any 2 if he has aces and turns his hand face up" theory is incorrect.

[AlexMartin]

Thanks Alex, I don't think it's pointless cos you do get nits who are never ever gonna fold their aces no matter what.

so suited connectors are fine but we can say that the "call any 2 if he has aces and turns his hand face up" theory is incorrect.

yeah, u prolly have closer to a 8.5% shot of flopping huge, its just that str8 draws are odd hands in terms of splits etcetc and we should be going broke with our oosd+pr on rainbow boards. I dont think any two, like 72o, would be ok 100bb deep, probs needs to be 160-200bb min to be calling any 2 pre.