Is this a pass?

[sovietsong]

3 handed, bubble in a 6 max table, blinds 150/300.  I have 3500 and am in bb, shortstack (sb) has 1000 and big stack (button)has 4500. 

The big stack has been raising his button all in for last few orbits.

I hold QQ he shoves, SB folds.

[TheChipPrince]

Longy will love this, very similar to example in the ICM thread... Personnally I would call...

[sovietsong]

i hate it, such an awful spot!

[Amatay]

call for me

[Longy]

Yeah Chipprince eerily similar to my example. My first reaction was that this close but it was a call due to the fact that winning is worth alot more in a 6max compared to a full ring sng.

I have ICM'd it and it looks a massive clear call. Break even point is button pushing top 9%.

Sngwiz graph below of how our equity runs against his pushing range.

[AndrewT]

Is the payout structure 70/30?

If so, I think it's a call.

ICM says folding here gives you 38.4% of the prize pool.

Calling and winning gives you 60.3%, therefore you need to win the hand 63.7% of the time to make it a +EV call, which it is as long as he's pushing more than about 8% of his hands (which it looks like he's doing).

In this situation, the top heavy payout structure, combined with the massive chip lead you'd have if you won, makes it a clear call.

As I said, this is based on 70/30 payout (don't play 6max sngs)

[AndrewT]

I think Longy's answer (with graph) > my answer (with numbers)

[david3103]

I'm testing my knowledge here so ...

Your ICM figure if you fold is 39.038% of the prize pot (Assuming 70/30 payout?)

If you call and win you go to 61.08%

If you call and lose you go to zero

QQ vs ATC (assuming he's shoving on that basis) is 79.92% to win

79.92*61.08 = 48.81

I make that a certain call

unless you think he's shoving with a range..... in which case I make the break point for the call to be a range at about 49% (33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o)

call - if he's shoving from position there aren't many better hands to call with

(did that really need ICM analysis?)

[sovietsong]

I called QQ<K10

[david3103]

My answer <> Andrew T's answer

but close enough for all practical purposes?

[david3103]

I called QQ<K10

67% win, 33% lose  (assuming K10 suited and neither of your is his suit - better than that if K10o)

.67*61.08 = 40.92

marginal, but still a call I think

[ShatnerPants]

Does shorties stack size come into the equation at all. 

Here he has 3.33xbb.

Does it affect anyone's thinking if he's down to 1xbb, or if he has, say 7xbb ?

[TheChipPrince]

Does shorties stack size come into the equation at all. 

Here he has 3.33xbb.

Does it affect anyone's thinking if he's down to 1xbb, or if he has, say 7xbb ?

Absolutely, his stack size is THE deciding factor in our decision. If he has 1 BB i fold, if he has 3+ BB's I call, 7 BB's I definately call...

[MC]

Wow, I really thought this wasn't serious at first.

I'm calling every single time here. I'm not laying down tens in this spot.

He doesn't shove AA or KK and he's unlikely to do it with AK. Chances are he has an underpair or one overcard. Obviously the overcard is always coming!

[thetank]

If you think he's pushing 75% of his hands, folding costs you about half a buy-in in the long run.
This is a call with 88+,AKo,AJs+ (assuming he's pushing 75% of his hands)


We call with 77+,AQo+,ATs+ if he's pushing 100% of the time.


If we've got him on a reasonably loose range like 22+,A2+,K2+,Q4s+,Q6o+,J6s+,J8o+,T7s+,T9o,98s (about 50%)
Then we call with TT+,AKo,AQs+


If he's really tight, and we think he's only pushing with 66+,ATs+,AJo+
Then we still call with... QQ+    (but this time a mousey fold will cost you less than a buck)