Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)

[thetank]

3 handed in a 9 man-STT
Blinds : 150/300
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3 players
[SB] hope2play (1640)
[BB] brester20 (5630)
[But] HERO (6230)

HERO : : Initial Pot: 450

HERO raises to 800
hope2play folds
brester20 calls 500
### FLOP ### : : : Pot: 1750
brester20 checks
HERO bets 1200
brester20 calls 1200
### TURN ### : Pot: 4150
brester20 bets 300
HERO


He min bets less than 10% of the pot.
Does this bet mean he's got Jacks with me and is trying to showdown his hand cheap?
Does it mean that he's trying to draw at a diamond or a straight cheap?
Does it mean that he's got a King and is trying to bet for value or induce a shove?

What's the play?
Opponent seems like a reasonable player thus far, although he missed a few chances to use his stack 4 handed.

[WYSINWYG]

Longshot: he's really good and is messing around with KJ. Unlikely.
He has a lonely King: very unlikely. The only thing that adds to this poss are relative stack sizes. Many times I find large; large; small; stacks and the two large want to keep pots small rather than give the shortstack his best hope.

It is very very likely that he is 'stating the price' of his draw, like you suggest. I tend to poke this kind of behaviour in the eye, I would add about 600 to it. If he has a K or better, he reraises, you fold. If he calls, river is a blank, and he pops 1200 as punishment for your turn flat call, then maybe you have more info to call it.

So depends on the guy. Some want to avoid fights, some know the EV of changing the stacks round to 7K 4K 1.5K.

[WYSINWYG]

(awaits the arrival of those who add a lot more than 600 on the turn. Enter Flushy, stage left)

ps  or  not imposs if he's passive like you say. Not nice scenario

[Charlie44]

imo to be calling but not re-raising your opponent has a decent but not very good hand. With a very good hand he's assuming his hand is best and probably re-raising all in  (assuming of course you don't have a very tight image) . Out of position and with the stack position hes not calling a medicore hand or even small suited connectors.

I think that restricts the likely suited cards he would be calling pre flop and just calling on flop. Perhaps A9,A8,A7,A6 ,Q9. I personally think with QJs hes pushing after the flop.

I think the non suited candidate hands are QJ, KJ , KQ, KT, K9 - and all of these hes winning. So imo statistically more likely you're beaten. I tend to treat small bets exactly the same as a check. imo be glad hes bet just 300, call and see what the river brings. 

[MC]

It's a weird one man, he could have a King, he could have a Jack, he could have a draw.

Just flat it, and see what happens on the river. Flat call makes it look like u could have a King which might slow him down on the river assuming he doesn't improve...

[MANTIS01]

Why would you bet 300 into 4,150 on the turn if you had 3 kings? That would be crazy. There is more in the middle than either of you have left in your stacks so it's not a time to get crazy. If you had 3 kings you would either check to the guy firing at the pot and hope he puts you on a draw, or you would put your oppo on a draw and fire at the pot yourself. What you wouldn't do is bet 300 and give any draw such a cheap last card. So if you don't believe your oppo has a king you can't call 300 into 4,450.

More likely that your oppo wants a river himself for 300 and he's using the ss to try and make his gay bet look bigger than it is. Why give him what he wants? So we use the ss to pressure him back and push all-in. Because there are so many river cards you hate your oppo will push all-in lots whether he has it or not. So there is no need to call and see what the river brings because we already know. Can you call all-in on a diamond river? No. Can he call all-in on the turn without a King? No.

I would push and take this sizeable pot right now. If he has a King I would play another STT immediately.

[MC]

Shit, I misread this, missed the whole pot size thing! For some reason thought his bet was sizeable

Wow his bet is mega weak...

On re-anaysis, l agree with Mantis, shove. QJ is probably only hand he has that has you beat.

[johnbhoy76]

what are the stakes here?

at the lower levels he will call your bet on the flop if he has any king or a flush draw

So a King comming down here is a scare card. Also at the lower levels players tend to call with a draw or a weak hand but when their hand improves to a monster they suddenly bet really small. They get loads of chips in when they are behind but then bet the minimum when they go infront!

If it's a slightly higher standard then he may have called your flop bet with the intention of betting the turn regardless of what card comes out. But then his bet size makes no sense if that was his plan.

So erm.. I don't know LOL!

Given the info I'd put him on a King or a flush draw. I'd be inclined to just call here as I cannot fold to such a small bet but.

the only problem (or the main problem) with calling is that he'll most likely put you all-in on the river

[thetank]

Sorry johnboy, I should have put in OP, it's a mid-limit game.


I lumped it in, more out of principle than anything else.
Didn't like the idea of WYSINWYG's smaller raise as it doesn't really achieve much. (No draws will fold to the extra 600, no chance of inducing a wondeful fold from QJo. etc.)

He called and showed me 


Felt a bit outplayed as I would have almost definately checked behind if he checked the turn. I fired a big bullet on the flop and got called, enough to slow me down 9 times out of 10.

The donk bet induced me to raise him.
Somebody said something about treating a donk bet like a check, I guess that's what I should have done here?

[MC]

Maybe I should stop analysing these things

[WYSINWYG]

Sorry johnboy, I should have put in OP, it's a mid-limit game.


I lumped it in, more out of principle than anything else.
Didn't like the idea of WYSINWYG's smaller raise as it doesn't really achieve much. (No draws will fold to the extra 600, no chance of inducing a wondeful fold from QJo. etc.)

He called and showed me 


Felt a bit outplayed as I would have almost definately checked behind if he checked the turn. I fired a big bullet on the flop and got called, enough to slow me down 9 times out of 10.

The donk bet induced me to raise him.
Somebody said something about treating a donk bet like a check, I guess that's what I should have done here?

I think it's reasonable to expect most oppos by the turn here to be on a draw rather than holding a King, what do you think? He calls rather than bets and then places a weak bet on the turn in an attempt to slow the action (I find this extremely common).
If I put him on a draw, my bet or raise is to charge him if I think he is behind, not always to make him fold. In fact, it is probably more profitable to always place the bet that he calls, even if he hits occasionally, rather than the one that closes the door on him.
Such an odd way to play K there. Did he feel you were beating him up in previous hands?

[WYSINWYG]

the only problem (or the main problem) with calling is that he'll most likely put you all-in on the river

/\ That.

[Rupert]

the only problem (or the main problem) with calling is that he'll most likely put you all-in on the river

wat

just call and keep the pot small, lol at even considering bloating the pot in this spot.  i also think checking the flop is a reasonable option but bettings ok

[MANTIS01]

If you decide to try and keep the pot small by calling his 300 your oppo will bet large on the river. So how is calling going to keep the pot small? If as a player you accept the 300 bet is a King then your oppos will enjoy betting 300 into you a lot whether they have the king or not. How very easy for them. We are 3 handed and there are 2 kings in the deck. The guy will have to show me one. Tank played the hand as well as he could imo.

[byronkincaid]

If you decide to try and keep the pot small by calling his 300 your oppo will bet large on the river.

then you have an easy fold?