misclick flop bet, now wot do i do on turn?

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

I KNOW WHERE I'M GOING WRONG AH

thankyou thats the bit i messed up.

isn't it more like 4 to 1 or something. needs to call ~47k i think to win ~200k

do you think you could work out the "when he calls" bit then?

[MANTIS01]

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.008%     31.92%    06.09%              2795          533.00   { 88-22, AcTc, Ac9c, A8s-A6s, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcTc, Kc9c, K8s-K6s, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Q8s, JcTc, Jc9c, J8s, Tc9c, T8s-T7s, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, ATo-A7o, K7o, T8o-T7o, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 1:    61.992%     55.90%    06.09%              4895          533.00   { 8d7h }

45.5% he folds winning us a 219,550 pot.            That makes +143,146
54.5% he calls then.........
38% we lose a 267,000 pot                                That makes - 101,460
62% we win a 267,000 pot                                 That makes +165,540

we have expected value of + 207,226

Thinking so changing my name to ThatsSoPlusEV

So tough and time consuming to work these things out but i'm sure this proves a point. how can we be a 3-1 dog to his range if you think he calls all of his overcard combos?

Sigh i can see me and you are going to have some fun on here.

Lets start with the bits i agree with, range seems fine and the pot sizes are correct now.

Aaaand the bits i disagree with.

What 45% of the prescribed range above does villian fold for 8 to 1 ish odds.

The bits i disagree with 0.45 * 219550 = 98797.5.

The 2nd part of the calc we have time this all through by 0.55 as this happens 55% of the time, you calcs are based on this happening 100% of the time (which ironically is more likely than 55% of the time imo).

The answer makes no sense again we cannot possibly win 207226 in this pot on average.

Jesus!

[Charlie44]

Charlie44. Do you always assume the worse? Not having a dig or anything but the previous actions and more so the turn action don't suggest any of the hands you put forward as possibilities.

Thanks for the comment Evil Pie, I appreciate we all have our opinions. I don't always assume the worse. In my experience however most bets are for value rather than bluffs, and I want reasonable evidence to commit my money.

You have bet twice and he is now raising. If this was the river I'd call, but how much more will he bet on the river ?. I have 2 other reasons why I believe the hero is beaten here.

1. In the past after calling in the BB, the villain has bet out first. He didn't here even though the flop looks good to do so. If he bet out on the flop I would have been happy to go over the top. But he just check called.

2. Imo the check raise on the turn is not saying I want you out of the hand. According to my maths he has raised 46k into a 79k pot. (just over half pot.) To me this is saying I have a big hand and I want you to build the pot. If he wants to get rid of you I think the raise would have been bigger.

Was there an outcome or was it folded ?

[AgentChip109]

i hated it but ended up folding. he didnt show but i was desperate to know wot he had. i think i made a bad laydown though.