Is this an ATC shove?

[dino1980]

Personally I think it is, but i'm willing to be convinced otherwise. The situation is as follows:

-Re-buy turbo (5 min levels) satellite to APPT Manilla now in freezeout stage
- One package (5k), second gets $114
- six left, we're tied for second in chips
- we've got 13 bbs sitting 3/6, avg = 15 bbs
- folds to us on button
- SB and BB has similar stacks, both SB and BB are winning players, BB is a satellite reg who will likely know the power of first in vigourish here and will be calling pretty tight, SB is an unknown but we've OPR'd him and he's a solid winning player, no reads other than this.
-HH below

If you don't believe this is a ATC shove, why? And how wide are you shoving?


Seat 1: ellas8223 (299000 in chips)
Seat 3: un2kin (1065505 in chips)
Seat 4: dino1980 (391327 in chips)
Seat 6: niccc (400494 in chips)
Seat 7: SilkysNuts (288196 in chips)
Seat 9: DleesViper (198478 in chips)
ellas8223: posts the ante 3000
un2kin: posts the ante 3000
dino1980: posts the ante 3000
niccc: posts the ante 3000
SilkysNuts: posts the ante 3000
DleesViper: posts the ante 3000
niccc: posts small blind 15000
SilkysNuts: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [   ]
DleesViper: folds
ellas8223: folds
un2kin: folds
dino1980:
niccc:
SilkysNuts:

[DaveShoelace]

Works better when you post the hands, well done on the stack sizes though.

[TheChipPrince]

Works better when you post the hands, well done on the stack sizes though.

He doesnt want answers to this specific hand, just if we push blind regardless of our holding...

[thetank]

I disagree with this

BB is a satellite reg who will likely know the power of first in vigourish here and will be calling pretty tight

So I entered the stacks, blinds, antes and the 98/2 payout into wiz and started mucking about.

If he's a good player and knows how often you're pushing, he'll be calling pretty loose.

If he thinks you're pushing 100%, he'd be correct in calling 70%+ !


I doubt that would happen though, but even if he thinks you're pushing half the time here, he is +EV to call with a pretty wide range. 22+, A2+, K5+, K2s+, Q9+, Q8s+, JT, J9s+, T9s

So I'd say the crucial thing is what is your table image like. What range do you think he'll put you on?

I think he'll put you on pushing about a third of the time. In this case, he should call with 22+, A2+, K9+, K8s+, QTs+, JTs+ (about a quarter of all hands)
He might have you pushing a bit more often than that, but still only call with that range anyway (coz he can be good, but not perfect)



Plug this in the other way, with big blind calling % as 26.5 (and for arguments sake we'll say the small blind will not be quite so loose and only call about 12% of the time)

The result, this is not an ATC shove
It is a shove just over half the time (55.4%).

So my push range here (assuming I get 13 minutes to act and can crunch all these numbers) will be 22+, A2, K6+, K2s+, Q8, Q2s+, J7+, J4s+, T7+, T5s+, 97+, 95s+, 86+, 85s+, 76, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+

[thetank]

If big blind is standard, solid, tight opponent and not a sat specialist then I would expect him to call tighter than 20% (like the small blind)

In that case, this would be an ATC shove.

[dino1980]

 

Ty very much for doing all that Tank much appreciated. So a mistake probably to push ATC but a small mistake depending on my table image and the blinds tendancies. I know exactly where you're coming from in terms of him being a satellite regular and knowing that i'll be pushing wide. But I then think that a bit of nash comes into plays. I know that he knows that I know so he knows etc. Ah the many levels of poker, just one of the reasons we play this game. Again can't thank you enough for taking the time to run the numbers.

[thetank]

 But I then think that a bit of nash comes into plays.

defo defo.

 Again can't thank you enough for taking the time to run the numbers.

No prob. Happy to crunch coz I was curious too.

[AndrewT]

 Again can't thank you enough for taking the time to run the numbers.

No prob. Happy to crunch coz I was curious too.

Dino gives Tank crunch credit.

[UpTheMariners]

if your playing these sats everyday then fine get it in with the smallest of edges but if not id give up a little edge in order to reduce the variance.

[thetank]

if your playing these sats everyday then fine get it in with the smallest of edges but if not id give up a little edge in order to reduce the variance.

This is not really applicable with a 98/2 payout. There is essentially only one prize so the only way to reduce variance is to maximize your chance of getting 1st place.

Do you mean you would pass up a small edge becaue you were a favourite to the field, wait for better spots etc?
That would be fair enough. Just as applicable, if not more so, if you were playing them every day though.

[thetank]

Running the same numbers as above with a 0.4% of the prize pool minimum edge (quite big) for both you and the other guy, it comes out as pushing top 45% instead of top 55%