Marginal Situation ?

[daviebhoy]

I'm a relatively new cash game player. I came across this situation at the weekend and would appreciate any comments on it.

Hold'em NL (£0.25/£0.50) - 2008/11/29 - 18:11:22 (UK)
Table "Katlaug" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Platonic_ (£36.09 in chips)
Seat 2: Saltyace (£32.22 in chips)
Seat 3: Lindapooh (£35.67 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (£50.35 in chips)
Seat 5: Chipfoose (£17.33 in chips)
Lindapooh: posts small blind £0.25
Hero: posts big blind £0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [ ]
Chipfoose: folds
Platonic_: folds
Saltyace: raises to £1.50
Lindapooh: folds
Hero: raises to £4
Saltyace: calls £2.50
----- FLOP ----- [ ]
Hero: bets £5
Saltyace: raises to £28.22 and is all-in

Knowledge of opponent is he seems quite a good, loose aggressive player capable of making a move and who has been unlucky and recently lost a third of his stack and is down to about $£32.50

Pot is £41.47 and you need to put in £23.22 to call. Easy Fold or marginal call ?

I'd be interested to hear any opinions on how I have played the hand so far. I am mainly concerned with whether or not I can call here or not though.

I will post my analysis at the table later and the analysis I have done since away from the table. Then I'll post the decision and result at the end. I'd be very interested to hear players opinions on this as I am struggling to come to a definitive decision on this myself.

[GreekStein]

Its an easy fold here for me.

If he has a set, a ten-ball is your only out and he is much more likely to have something like 88-JJ which smacks that board straight in the face and leaves u in bad shape. We can pretty much rule out QQ-AA because players at these limits almost never ever flat pre with the top three hands.

Apart from K10 or A10, I cant see anything that we're beating or getting a good enough price to call for.

Edit: You should also be honoured to be playing on the same table as platonic, a crypto legend and man with the funniest hoax blog online.

[daviebhoy]

My thinking at the time is that he has a weak J or is semi-bluffing in which case I'm ahead or have 10 outs. I don't believe QT or a set ever jams in this spot and AA-QQ & AK can be discounted because they almost always re-raise pre-flop. There is a lot of hands to consider here though and I'm finding the amount of time you have to make this kind of decision at the table nowhere near long enough which is why I've went away and thought about it since but I would like to know what others think.

I'll post the analysis I have done for comment later.

[kinboshi]

Instafold for me. 

The play's fine up to that point though. 

Why do you think he has a weak jack?  I also see a made set jamming here lots of times.

[Graham C]

Agreed, easy fold here too.  Played well so far but you have to be passing here imo

[daviebhoy]

Why do you think he has a weak jack?  I also see a made set jamming here lots of times.

Its a rainbow flop and I don't think a big made hand is likely to try and push me off my hand. If I have AK here - which I could have from opponents point of view - I have to fold. AA-QQ and AJ probably call but probably call smaller re-raise and get it all in on turn. Anyone with a big hand doesn't want to push JT, QJ, KJ etc out so I would expect a smaller re-raise or a call looking to get it all in later in the hand.

I do think a set pushes here some of the time I just don't think its all that likely. He could also have something like TT or KJ and looking to protect his hand. There is also the possibility he has air and has put me on AK and trying to take it away. QJ or JT also fit the betting with top pair and a straight draw looking to take the pot right now and get a lot of hands to fold. He may also have called with J7 and wants to end the hand now.

Pot odds are 1.8 to 1 so I only need about 36% winning chance in this spot to call. Question is whether or not I have that.

[GrannyDee]

Standard bet out on the flop. In position I like to see a cheap turn and check behind. Being OOP in the hand sucks as I feel the need to bet out in these spots even though your opponent calls a lot on this board.

FWIW the preflop re-raise makes the call mandatory for opponent I make it 5.25-5.50 preflop as you are the BB. In position 4.5 - 5 is ok.

[bolt pp]

LOL, fold

flat pre

[mondatoo]

LOL, fold

flat pre

Good point,but oppo dependant sometimes i would look to re-pop it but defintly benefits to flatting then when you miss like you have here you don't feel the urge to try and bluff at a big pot instead of just losing a small one.This is also how i'd play AK mostly fwiw

As said this is 100% a fold

[daviebhoy]

FWIW the preflop re-raise makes the call mandatory for opponent I make it 5.25-5.50 preflop as you are the BB. In position 4.5 - 5 is ok.

I am starting to get that I'm not re-raising enough here and inviting a lot of hands to call which is part of the problem. What should the re-raise be ? Is £5 raise enough ? The second problem I have is that if I miss the flop (which isl most of the time) and bet I am investing even more chips with just Ace High.

Flat calling and playing the hand smaller might be better but has the same problem in that my opponent can have lots of hands and a bigger problem in that I know even less post-flop than I do currently.

I don't like playing this hand OOP but I also don't like weakly giving up my BB with AQo to button raise so I'm finding this quite a tough spot.

[bolt pp]

FWIW the preflop re-raise makes the call mandatory for opponent I make it 5.25-5.50 preflop as you are the BB. In position 4.5 - 5 is ok.

I am starting to get that I'm not re-raising enough here and inviting a lot of hands to call which is part of the problem. What should the re-raise be ? Is £5 raise enough ? The second problem I have is that if I miss the flop (which isl most of the time) and bet I am investing even more chips with just Ace High.

Flat calling and playing the hand smaller might be better but has the same problem in that my opponent can have lots of hands and a bigger problem in that I know even less post-flop than I do currently.

I don't like playing this hand OOP but I also don't like weakly giving up my BB with AQo to button raise so I'm finding this quite a tough spot.

I am starting to get that i'm not re-raising enough here and inviting a lot of hands to call which is part of the problem, what should the re-raise be?

£0

flat calling and playing the hand smaller might be better but has the same problem in that my opponent can have a lot of hands and a bigger problem in that i know even less post-flop than i do currently.



so you're saying that flatting you have the same problem as you do if you re-raise and get a call? then DUCY flatting is optimum?

I dont like playing this hand OOP but i also dont like weakly giving up my giving up my BB with AQ off to button raise so am finding this quite a tough spot

how is flatting giving up your BB?

Nearly everything you've said about this hand is OP and subsequent posts looks like you're approaching this hand as though it was a tournement.

flat pre OOP, if it comes a 223...553 sort of flop c/calling a bet from oppo isnt the worst play and see what he does on the turn but barring that if you miss the flop c/fold and move onto the next hand.

I'm not saying there arnt spots in which you can re-pop and c-bet the flop but no one on the table bar you has over 70% of the buy in so i disagree if you do follow this line that the re-raise amount isnt enough,ask yourself for what is your reason you're re-raising here? to take down the pot right now?(for a £2 pot OOP doing this would be long term this is -EV, especially at this level) so you're prolly getting a caller(and want a caller IMO, lol trust me you're not just getting called by premiums here) at least keep the pot managable, + you crush he's range at this level when you hit and it's stackaroooney time son)!!!, once you've fired the flop after missing you just fold.

[daviebhoy]

FWIW here is my analysis I have done afterwards :

I think the most likely holdings are the following hands :

60% I am behind to the following hands which fit the betting :

TT 8 outs
KJ 10 outs
QJ 3 outs (4 to split)
JT 6 outs
AJ - 7 outs
77 - 10 outs
9T - 6 outs (3 to split)
8T - 6 outs (3 to split)

10% I am beating the following :

AQ, 67, AT

20% of the time it is real hands pushing the flop leaving me with 4 outs :

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88, QT, Q9, Q8, J9, J8, 89

10% of the time opponent is bluffing.

I'm ahead here - 20% including total bluffs - going to be outdrawn mibbe 20% - 14%
I'm behind 60% with 25% chance of winning. 15%
20% of the time I have a 17% chance of winning - 3.5%

Total - 32.5% winning chance so must fold. I need about 36% chance to win.

Does anyone agree with this analysis ? How would you calculate the winning percentage here ?

[bolt pp]

total-32.5% winning chance so must fold. i need about 36% chance to win

just lol

FWIW you might as well just do what you like(i think you're going to anyway)

how would you calculate the winning percantage here?

I wouldnt, i dont even know what the fuck that shit is you wrote, i wouldve folded ages ago and been surfing for porn by now!

[daviebhoy]

so you're saying that flatting you have the same problem as you do if you re-raise and get a call? then DUCY flatting is optimum?

Thanks bolt. This makes a lot of sense. Although, just seen your last post and your probably away looking at porn by now. I am trying to work out how I should be analysing my play and for some reason I thought this might be a good place to do it.

At the time I thought this was a marginal decision but I not so sure anymore. I'm coming round to the fact this is an easy fold. I just wondered if anyone would call and if I am analysing my play correctly.

[kinboshi]

FWIW the preflop re-raise makes the call mandatory for opponent I make it 5.25-5.50 preflop as you are the BB. In position 4.5 - 5 is ok.

I am starting to get that I'm not re-raising enough here and inviting a lot of hands to call which is part of the problem. What should the re-raise be ? Is £5 raise enough ? The second problem I have is that if I miss the flop (which isl most of the time) and bet I am investing even more chips with just Ace High.

Flat calling and playing the hand smaller might be better but has the same problem in that my opponent can have lots of hands and a bigger problem in that I know even less post-flop than I do currently.

I don't like playing this hand OOP but I also don't like weakly giving up my BB with AQo to button raise so I'm finding this quite a tough spot.

I am starting to get that i'm not re-raising enough here and inviting a lot of hands to call which is part of the problem, what should the re-raise be?

£0

flat calling and playing the hand smaller might be better but has the same problem in that my opponent can have a lot of hands and a bigger problem in that i know even less post-flop than i do currently.



so you're saying that flatting you have the same problem as you do if you re-raise and get a call? then DUCY flatting is optimum?

I dont like playing this hand OOP but i also dont like weakly giving up my giving up my BB with AQ off to button raise so am finding this quite a tough spot

how is flatting giving up your BB?

Nearly everything you've said about this hand is OP and subsequent posts looks like you're approaching this hand as though it was a tournement.

flat pre OOP, if it comes a 223...553 sort of flop c/calling a bet from oppo isnt the worst play and see what he does on the turn but barring that if you miss the flop c/fold and move onto the next hand.

I'm not saying there arnt spots in which you can re-pop and c-bet the flop but no one on the table bar you has over 70% of the buy in so i disagree if you do follow this line that the re-raise amount isnt enough,ask yourself for what is your reason you're re-raising here? to take down the pot right now?(for a £2 pot OOP doing this would be long term this is -EV, especially at this level) so you're prolly getting a caller(and want a caller IMO, lol trust me you're not just getting called by premiums here) at least keep the pot managable, + you crush he's range at this level when you hit and it's stackaroooney time son)!!!, once you've fired the flop after missing you just fold.

I agree with the ASBOd one here.

You're approaching the hand very much in a tournament mindset for me.  Think of how you'd play AQ at the start of a deepstack tournament and that's probably fairly similar to how you'll look at it in cash.  You're out of position, you have no idea where you are (except that you have A-high on a dangerous board) and that the other player has some sort of hand.  Would you want to commit lots of chips early in a deepstack tournament in this situation?