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boldie
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« on: December 28, 2008, 06:54:26 PM » |
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I have been confused regularly over this christmas period..and today is no different.
Why is Sizing Europe 13-8 for tomorrow's big race at Leopardstown?
Beaten by Hardy last time out (although admittedly he probably needed the run and Hardy is probably better when fresh) and Hardy was behind Brave Inca when they were both beaten by Catch Me last time out. Catch Me won today, and there is no reason to believe that that form isn't rock solid...Brave also came back for his seasonal return that time and he could also do with the run then.
Sizing also had an injury scare, fairly late into his preperations for this race...and there have to be doubts about him on that score alone.
Why is Brave Inca 9-2 third favourite (behind Sublimity...which really baffles me as he is the underachiever to end all underachievers) ? Surely he shouldn't be more than a 5-2 shot in this?
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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bolt pp
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2008, 07:43:23 PM » |
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I have been confused regularly over this christmas period..and today is no different.
thread shouldve ended at this point IMO |
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boldie
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2008, 07:46:09 PM » |
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I have been confused regularly over this christmas period..and today is no different.
thread shouldve ended at this point IMO don't tell me you're going against me again?..How many DVD players did you have to nick to pay off your bookie for going against me last time? |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2008, 08:01:08 PM » |
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The "bounce" factor could easily come into play regarding Brave Inca.
If it runs I think Sizing Europe will be a good thing tomorrow what with better ground and a run under it's belt.
PS Catch Me won over three miles today, the December Hurdle tomorrow is two miles.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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boldie
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2008, 08:11:33 PM » |
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The "bounce" factor could easily come into play regarding Brave Inca.
If it runs I think Sizing Europe will be a good thing tomorrow what with better ground and a run under it's belt.
PS Catch Me won over three miles today, the December Hurdle tomorrow is two miles.
yes I know (the Catch Me thing)..I reckon the form still stands though...I would be very surprised if the bounce factor came into play..Ince has never suffered from that in the past and he has had 4 weeks off...that always used to be plenty of time for him. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2008, 08:22:55 PM » |
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The "bounce" factor could easily come into play regarding Brave Inca.
If it runs I think Sizing Europe will be a good thing tomorrow what with better ground and a run under it's belt.
PS Catch Me won over three miles today, the December Hurdle tomorrow is two miles.
yes I know (the Catch Me thing)..I reckon the form still stands though...I would be very surprised if the bounce factor came into play..Ince has never suffered from that in the past and he has had 4 weeks off...that always used to be plenty of time for him. The "form" that you refer to of of the last race where Brave Inca came second was on heavy ground over two and a half miles whereas tomorrow's race will be over two miles on g/s ground. PS BI has never had a 19 month gap between races before afaik. |
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« Last Edit: December 28, 2008, 08:35:58 PM by Karabiner »
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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boldie
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2008, 08:38:26 PM » |
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The "bounce" factor could easily come into play regarding Brave Inca.
If it runs I think Sizing Europe will be a good thing tomorrow what with better ground and a run under it's belt.
PS Catch Me won over three miles today, the December Hurdle tomorrow is two miles.
yes I know (the Catch Me thing)..I reckon the form still stands though...I would be very surprised if the bounce factor came into play..Ince has never suffered from that in the past and he has had 4 weeks off...that always used to be plenty of time for him. The "form" that you refer to of of the last race where Brave Inca came second and Sizing Europe came third was on heavy ground over two and a half miles whereas tomorrow's race will be over two miles on g/s ground. ok, just to clear this up...Brave Inca didn't beat Sizing Europe...Brave Inca beat Hardy Eustace last time out. ..this was over 2mile4 behind Catch Me. Hardy Eustace beat Sizing Europe over 2miles at Punchestown on heavy going. Brave Inca has form on Yielding ground over 2miles (and the going is yielding tomorrow so no reason to assume he won't handle it)...and Catch Me showed today that he is a very decent horse indeed..whether it'd be over 2 1/2 miles or 3. We also know both Hardy and Inca handle 2miles well, as they do 2 1/2miles. I therefore think it's fair to say that the form looks to be solid here and that Brave Inca's price is simply too big. edit; Especially considering the interrupted prep Sizing has had. |
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« Last Edit: December 28, 2008, 08:40:34 PM by boldie »
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2008, 08:47:57 PM » |
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I'm just explaining why one is 13/8 and the other 9/2.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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boldie
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2008, 08:52:09 PM » |
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I'm just explaining why one is 13/8 and the other 9/2.
Yeah I know mate..but the reasons just don't hold up for me...oddscompilers are funny buggers though..but I reckon they got this one wrong. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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mickyp
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2008, 10:49:13 PM » |
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Sizing Europe wins ,end of
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boldie
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2008, 10:36:03 AM » |
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I see Sizing is now 9-4 on betfair...seems a much better reflection of it's odds to me.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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boldie
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2008, 02:03:31 PM » |
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brave inca a sitting duck...Sizing just no good.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2008, 02:21:33 PM » |
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brave inca a sitting duck...Sizing just no good.
That is a sweeping statement Boldie, you obviously think that SE ran his race today. Had you watched SE's run in the AIG last season you would know that the horse was not right today. |
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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boldie
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« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2008, 02:23:26 PM » |
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brave inca a sitting duck...Sizing just no good.
That is a sweeping statement Boldie, you obviously think that SE ran his race today. Had you watched SE's run in the AIG last season you would know that the horse was not right today. OK, Sizing just no good today and will hack up in his next race..unless it's Cheltenham. Better?  |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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