Cash Game at DTD, January 8th, 2009. £0.50/£1
I have just moved table, having treaded water spectacularly for about 5 hours on my first choice table .
I am in the big blind with
,
. Table is now 6 handed (it‘s late).
Folded to the button who limps, SB completes and I check my option.
The flop is 5,6,7 - all spades.
I have flopped a straight and an up-and-down straight flush draw.
The SB bets right into me, £10.
I am thrown by this. It’s a massive overbet. I know next to nothing about him, other than a) he has a decent stack, b) he has an American accent but looks middle eastern, and c) he has just made a very loose call for a gutshot and sort of managed to justify it using USA bullsh1t, but not that convincingly in my eyes - so to me he is a potential fish until he proves otherwise.
Anyway, what does his bet mean? He knows not much about me other than some table banter branding me a ‘rock’ when I sat down a few minutes ago.
I have been getting burned recently when calling massive overbets that look like bluffs, so I have to admit this is a factor in what I do next, although it shouldn’t be of course.
I think, “has he flopped the flush?” Unlikely. Is he making a play knowing I might not be able to call without any spades? Likely. Does he have the Ace of spades and is semi bluffing? Reasonably likely. Does he have an eight or a four and again be semi bluffing on and up-and-down straight draw? Again, likely. Is he just feeling saucy and just trying to make me go away? Seems just as likely too.
I reckon it’s
flopped flush - 5 % chance,
he has the ace of spades (with some rag to go with it, hence the limp) - 30 % chance,
he is up and down semi bluffing - 30 % chance,
he’s flopped two pair - a 10 % chance,
and a 25 % chance he’s just on a steal. I discount a set because a pocket pair three handed would probably have raised.
I hadn’t gone through these exact percentages in my head but this is an accurate assessment of where I thought I was, thinking about each possible holding he might have, which I did do.
Anyway,
I re-raise to £25.
Yes, a little small I know. (Letting the recent past get in the way of the present). My raise should have been £30 - £35.
Button folds. My opponent takes a little while, but eventually calls.
The turn card is a spade. I can’t remember the morning after what number it was exactly, but it was an ugly spade nonetheless.
Now it gets interesting. He bets into me again, this time £25.
Now I have a flush myself but of course it’s totally irrelevant if he is sat there with a better spade than my eight. So what I do now is determined by what I think he has, not what I have. Yes, I have a flush (and a two-out draw to the absolute nuts) but in this scenario I am either way ahead or way behind.
I take my time. He looks a bit stiff to begin with but then seems to loosen up a little. He leans back in his chair. I see his legs are crossed. He gets involved in a conversation that has started up at the table.
I have £75 left and he has me covered.
So what do I do now?
Your thoughts please.
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