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Poker Hand Analysis
Thoughts appreciated
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Topic: Thoughts appreciated (Read 1836 times)
nirvana
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Thoughts appreciated
«
on:
January 19, 2009, 07:05:09 PM »
£100 live MTT. Standard tale of beats inflicted and received finally exiting running queens into kings for a juicy pot on the FT.
Only hand that interested me in terms of how best to approach is this one. On one hand it made no difference to my tourney but perhaps it could have
528000 chips in play,8 players left. Blinds 3K,6K with ante of 300. I'm in the BB and after posting have about 60K.
WIllie Tann, in the cut off, similar stack, raises to 16K, he's been quite active and been caught a couple of times raising in mid-late position. Called by the button who has seen his stack rise quite quickly over a few hands to around 80K, fairly solid ABC but has got Willie of a few hands pre with shoves to Willie's raises.
You look down at
- what's your play ?
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sola virtus nobilitat
MC
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #1 on:
January 19, 2009, 07:55:29 PM »
I'll try and forget that 57 spades is my favourite hand for this
Could make arguments for all 3 plays here: Fold, call or shove
Looks like a possible good place to shove.
Calling is probs worst of the 3. Although you have pot odds, that 10k you are putting in = fold equity that you are gonna need.
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Longy
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #2 on:
January 19, 2009, 08:09:22 PM »
I think you are too short to squeeze or call, therefore it is a fold for me. We only really should shove here if we believe Willie and the button are going to make a pretty bad mistake of not calling with just about all their range.
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Horneris
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #3 on:
January 19, 2009, 08:10:34 PM »
Easy fold for me.
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thetank
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #4 on:
January 19, 2009, 08:15:04 PM »
I'm partial to the odd nutty move but I almost definately fold here.
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mondatoo
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #5 on:
January 19, 2009, 08:41:58 PM »
Quote from: Horneris on January 19, 2009, 08:10:34 PM
Easy fold for me.
This
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celtic
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #6 on:
January 19, 2009, 09:16:00 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on January 19, 2009, 08:41:58 PM
Quote from: Horneris on January 19, 2009, 08:10:34 PM
Easy fold for me.
This
if u call the flop will be
if u fold the flop will be
hope this helps.
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boldie
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #7 on:
January 19, 2009, 09:21:39 PM »
Quote from: celtic on January 19, 2009, 09:16:00 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on January 19, 2009, 08:41:58 PM
Quote from: Horneris on January 19, 2009, 08:10:34 PM
Easy fold for me.
This
if u call the flop will be
if u fold the flop will be
hope this helps.
this
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MC
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #8 on:
January 19, 2009, 09:29:32 PM »
Quote from: celtic on January 19, 2009, 09:16:00 PM
if u call the flop will be
if u fold the flop will be
hope this helps.
lol
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MC
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #9 on:
January 19, 2009, 09:34:08 PM »
Quote from: Longy on January 19, 2009, 08:09:22 PM
I think you are too short to squeeze or call, therefore it is a fold for me. We only really should shove here if we believe Willie and the button are going to make a pretty bad mistake of not calling with just about all their range.
Actually this is a good point, perhaps you don't have enough chips to make this move. 80-100k back and it's more plausible.
But if Willie doesn't call cos he is raising light, the button must have something decent and will have the pot odds to call.
Re-evaluating folding does sound best...
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nirvana
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #10 on:
January 19, 2009, 09:52:11 PM »
Thanks Longy/MC - Vinny hit it in one though:-)
I got confused at the time since the way the table had played I think there is a strong chance that the other 2 players may well have passed to a shove and I seriously considered it.
Since at least one might / should call,and I'd had less to drink than normal, I decided not to shove and then found it very hard to not think along pot odds lines (10K into a 40K pot), eventually made the call, uncomfortably, and folded to a turn bet.
Wanted to see other peoples opinions based on oppo, stack sizes etc as to whether a call is spewy and the worse move.
Had just about concluded that a fold was best.
Next time ........... I call. Old dogs etc
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Chompy
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #11 on:
January 19, 2009, 10:57:57 PM »
A thinly veiled 'I've played with Willie Tann' thread imo
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AlexMartin
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Re: Thoughts appreciated
«
Reply #12 on:
January 20, 2009, 06:50:55 AM »
Quote from: nirvana on January 19, 2009, 09:52:11 PM
Thanks Longy/MC - Vinny hit it in one though:-)
I got confused at the time since the way the table had played I think there is a strong chance that the other 2 players may well have passed to a shove and I seriously considered it.
Since at least one might / should call,and I'd had less to drink than normal, I decided not to shove and then found it very hard to not think along pot odds lines (10K into a 40K pot), eventually made the call, uncomfortably, and folded to a turn bet.
Wanted to see other peoples opinions based on oppo, stack sizes etc as to whether a call is spewy and the worse move.
Had just about concluded that a fold was best.
Next time ........... I call. Old dogs etc
even if you had another 30k, you are too shallow to play 57s out of position against a shortstack profitably, unless he is the most weaktight terrible player on the planet. I wish i could say willie was but hes ok. ship/fold pre, not enough fold equity with your stacks (willie getting 2:1), shove earlier imo
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