Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks

[Blatch]

Played the Broadway M/E at weekend and had one hand that changed my tourney really and would like some opinions on it please.  The history before has a major influence.

I have literally just moved table and sat next to a friend at the table, he tells me who the two fish are at the table.  I then watch a hand between one of them, a lady at the end of the table and Kier Ratcliffe, a young very decent player.  I limped after Kier limped UTG and another limper.  Lady raises to 600 with blinds at 50/100, Kier flat calls and I flat call for Imnplied with small pocket pair.  Board comes  , Kier check calls 1500, turn brings  and Kier check calls 4000, river brings  , Kier shoves remaining 7k and lady snap calls.  Kier shows  and is good against  saying "how can I fold the river"?

So my hand ....

I have 38k, lady has 33k and Kier has 26k.  Lady limps UTG, Kier limps at blinds 100/200 and I raise to 700 in SB with  , with the aim to get rid of the BB and hopefully get heads up with lady but I know Kier is trying to play every pot with her.  Both flat call and flops comes  , I check mainly due to pot control and to see how she reacts to the flop.  She bets 3500 into the pot of 2200 and Kier folds.  What should my play be?

[MANTIS01]

You have seen that the lady leads with marginal and overvalues her hands, so I'd play this one just like your friend played his K-Q.

[Blatch]

You have seen that the lady leads with marginal and overvalues her hands, so I'd play this one just like your friend played his K-Q.

Are you saying check call all the way and re assess on the river?

[MANTIS01]

If you raise would she give you business with a worse hand? The fact she has lead with marginal on the flop before, and continued to push with marginal on the turn means you should give her rope to push with marginal again. Her 3.5k bet into 2.2k suggests she's not uber strong and I think raising this bet only gets action from better hands. So c-calling seems the best way to make money when you're ahead vs this villain.

[byronkincaid]

Kier shoves remaining 7k and lady snap calls.  Kier shows    and is good against    saying "how can I fold the river"?

was this a bluff that turned out to be a value bet I wonder? If it was for value why not raise the turn before the scare card comes?

If you raise would she give you business with a worse hand?

from the previous hand it would seem like a very definite yes.

[MANTIS01]

If you raise would she give you business with a worse hand?

from the previous hand it would seem like a very definite yes.

In the previous hand villain was never c-raised, so we don't know. She lead flop/turn & called his half pot shove on the end. There is nothing there that tells us she would call a c-raise from a guy holding 38k. If she leads marginal then let her lead marginal imo.

[Blatch]

If you raise would she give you business with a worse hand? The fact she has lead with marginal on the flop before, and continued to push with marginal on the turn means you should give her rope to push with marginal again. Her 3.5k bet into 2.2k suggests she's not uber strong and I think raising this bet only gets action from better hands. So c-calling seems the best way to make money when you're ahead vs this villain.

This was my exact thinking and I actually put her on her hand such as top pair with maybe nut flush draw and a good flush draw as well.  I check called and the turn came  , I check and she bets 9k.

My play?

[Blatch]

Kier shoves remaining 7k and lady snap calls.  Kier shows    and is good against    saying "how can I fold the river"?

was this a bluff that turned out to be a value bet I wonder? If it was for value why not raise the turn before the scare card comes?

If you raise would she give you business with a worse hand?

from the previous hand it would seem like a very definite yes.

I believe Kier was trying a semi float representing the flush, but maybe im wrong and he thought his KQ was good all the way. 

[GreekStein]

On the turn I think it's a jam.

It's hard to put her on a hand but I can't put her on a flush here. If so gg - cooler.

That's as safe a turn as we were hoping to see and she might give us action with AK AQ AJ with one club/none if shes that much of a donk. We know she prob doesn't know any better than to pay us off far too light so I don't see this as a shove that is only getting action from better hands either.

[Jon MW]

On the turn I think it's a jam.

It's hard to put her on a hand but I can't put her on a flush here. If so gg - cooler.

That's as safe a turn as we were hoping to see and she might give us action with AK AQ AJ with one club/none if shes that much of a donk. We know she prob doesn't know any better than to pay us off far too light so I don't see this as a shove that is only getting action from better hands either.

If you want to gamble, call and jam the river if it isn't a club.

But generally I think jamming this turn is the way to go - I expect a big ace, with the flush draw : tilt shove your remaining stack a few times if she already has the flush.

[Blatch]

On the turn I think it's a jam.

It's hard to put her on a hand but I can't put her on a flush here. If so gg - cooler.

That's as safe a turn as we were hoping to see and she might give us action with AK AQ AJ with one club/none if shes that much of a donk. We know she prob doesn't know any better than to pay us off far too light so I don't see this as a shove that is only getting action from better hands either.

Really bud?

I think the Jam is horrible.  Im sitting there with nearly double the average stack early doors in a comp with 190 BB and you wanna jam this?

[TheChipPrince]

But her bet is 45 BB's, so in this hand your in deep already...

[GreekStein]

On the turn I think it's a jam.

It's hard to put her on a hand but I can't put her on a flush here. If so gg - cooler.

That's as safe a turn as we were hoping to see and she might give us action with AK AQ AJ with one club/none if shes that much of a donk. We know she prob doesn't know any better than to pay us off far too light so I don't see this as a shove that is only getting action from better hands either.

Really bud?

I think the Jam is horrible.  Im sitting there with nearly double the average stack early doors in a comp with 190 BB and you wanna jam just top two against the table donkey who we have already seen go crazy with top pair hands?

FYP btw

I actually misread the original post thinking you had 26k (Keir's stack) rather than your 38k though I don't think that would have been horrible when your hand is really underrepped coupled with the fact that villain is the table donk and played the last hand similarly with just top pair.

It's an interesting spot. The fact she's overbetting the pot on the flop may make me lead the turn for pot control if I'm not happy to stack off here. If she raises a lead here for something like 5200 it's more conceivable that we may be beat.

As played I still think her range is far too wide to consider we're not ahead. When checked to she could be betting any Ax(club) combo. Against your description of this particular villain I may actually raise here to get value from when she has the Old / type hand and will only lay down on a brick river. I think folding here is horrible and she's already bet 45x already so as ChipPrince says we're in deep already.

Maybe this thread has brought out what a fish I am.

Alternatively do what Paul Moyce would do...fold flop!

[Blatch]

On the turn I think it's a jam.

It's hard to put her on a hand but I can't put her on a flush here. If so gg - cooler.

That's as safe a turn as we were hoping to see and she might give us action with AK AQ AJ with one club/none if shes that much of a donk. We know she prob doesn't know any better than to pay us off far too light so I don't see this as a shove that is only getting action from better hands either.

Really bud?

I think the Jam is horrible.  Im sitting there with nearly double the average stack early doors in a comp with 190 BB and you wanna jam just top two against the table donkey who we have already seen go crazy with top pair hands?

FYP btw

I actually misread the original post thinking you had 26k (Keir's stack) rather than your 38k though I don't think that would have been horrible when your hand is really underrepped coupled with the fact that villain is the table donk and played the last hand similarly with just top pair.

It's an interesting spot. The fact she's overbetting the pot on the flop may make me lead the turn for pot control if I'm not happy to stack off here. If she raises a lead here for something like 5200 it's more conceivable that we may be beat.

As played I still think her range is far too wide to consider we're not ahead. When checked to she could be betting any Ax(club) combo. Against your description of this particular villain I may actually raise here to get value from when she has the Old / type hand and will only lay down on a brick river. I think folding here is horrible and she's already bet 45x already so as ChipPrince says we're in deep already.

Maybe this thread has brought out what a fish I am.

Alternatively do what Paul Moyce would do...fold pre!

FYP

I dont think she has AX as she had already shwon she will raise with K10 off with 2 limpers and I believe she would have raised with AJ or AQ here.

[MC]

I like the check call on the flop, and I too jam the turn. It's so likely we're up against Ax combo type hand with the club draw. If we're beat, so be it. You can't flat this bet, and we're only losing to a set / made flush, which although possible, don't make up enough of her range to consider passing imo...