Equal Chance Play on the Turn .....

[Prince Charles]

Here's a hand from Equal Chance's Main Event.....I'm still not quite sure If I played it optimally....what do you think?

Background:
Main Event £350 entry 30k in chips
Blinds 400/800 (ante 100)
60 players (from 70) remaining
9 handed table


Impressions of my opponent, Steve is a loose player who overvalues hands.
Possible impressions of me, agressive player, playing too many hands and bluffing too often

My Chip stack is approx 45,000
My opponent Steve has about 58,000

5 players in the hand.

1. Me (SB)   
2. BB
3. UTG
6. Steve (cut off -2) (will keep his cards secret for the moment)
9.  Button


Preflop
Seat 3 UTG limps
Seat 6 Steve considers raising but limps
Seat 9 Button limps
Seat 1 Me limps
Seat 2 Checks

Pot is 5,800

Flop        
Seat 1 - Me, I Check
Seat 2 - BB, Checks
Seat 3 - UTG, Checks
Seat 6 - Steve, bets 4000
Seat 9 - Button, Folds
--------------------------------------
Seat 1 - Me, I raise to 14,000
Seat 2 - BB, Folds
Seat 3 - UTG, Folds
Seat 6 - Steve, quickly calls

Turn - 
Now the  is an excellent non-scare card - it makes a potential club flush draw but that's pretty much it.
I'm convinced the way hand has played out that my opponent has a King probably KTs, KJ or KQ

So I have three options:

1. Check the turn which will probably induce a check from my opponent giving him a chance to hit his King, pair the deuce or hit his (unknown) kicker.
Pro's: I know almost exactly where I am in the hand.  If a King or deuce arrive, I give up the hand without losing a penny more.
Con's: If an ace arrives, I probably don't get much from him. His kicker is still unknown to me - so if it comes a high card - I can't safely value bet and end up perhaps paying him off.

2. Bet about 15,000 (a touch less than half)
Pro's: It will be quite hard for him to fold as if he felt he was ahead on the flop, this is a similar size bet and thus he won't be able to resist due to the blank deuce on the turn.  This play may also induce an All-in from him.
Con's: This Leaves me open to getting knocked out of a tourney in which I believe I am one of the better players.

3. Go All-in for about 29,000 (this will leave Steve about 13,000)
Pro's: There a nice pot of about 32,000 with no attached risk (if he folds).  I get all my money in with the best hand (probable 80% advantage)
Con's: I don't give myself a chance to escape, if he calls and a King or Deuce hit the river.

I won't divulge what he had and what I did just yet......but what are your thoughts?

[TheChipPrince]

Surely any option but checking, why give him a free card if your already confident your ahead... Basically do whatever you can on the turn to get all the money I would say...

[Cf]

Does anyone else fold preflop? This is one of those spots where I look past the immediate pot odds I'm getting and fold to save myself trouble later in the hand.

[reenot]

Having played EC I get them in now and expect a call with A9 or worse!

[boldie]

I bet out 20k here..if he called the extra 10k fast surely he'll call that as well.

[T_Mar]

You would of obv been happy to get them in on the flop, nothing has changed on the turn, and you've got about a PSB left so just shove, your read is that he over values his hands so he should pay you off with any K... bigger 2 pair combo's and sets are unlikely because of what you hold, and he obv has something to call your flop rasie... shove imo

[daviebhoy]

The shove might get him suspicious and fold some hands. There are no draws for him to be worried about. Turn c-bet seems best way to get all his chips in the middle as it will likely induce a shove and he will have to call on the end if he doesn't.

I also think you could have raised a little more on the flop. If he is calling 14000 he is also calling 15 or 16000. It makes it slightly easier to get all the money in on the turn aswell.

[MANTIS01]

Deffo like option 2 best. More importantly I would address the concerns you have about the club flush draw materialising on a  board. That would be harsh if it came imo.

[pokerfan]

Deffo like option 2 best. More importantly I would address the concerns you have about the club flush draw materialising on a  board. That would be harsh if it came imo.

[Prince Charles]

So what happened?

Well, having come to the conclusion that my opponent had a King and that he was prone to overvaluing hands - I decided to shove on the turn.

I was quite happy to take the pot there and then but didn't mind too much if he called.  This might seem strange considering I was a big favourite in the hand but of course even big favourites can get overturned.  And as I thought I was one of the better players in the tournament - I didn't think it was wise to get too greedy by enticing a call....having some fold equity....seemed like the right thing plus it was increasing my agressive persona, maybe tilt the player and encourage other players not to mess with me or my blinds.
By the same token, seeing the river knowing my opponents hand would have allowed me to potentially get more value from the hand and play it with total safety.

I still don't think it's totally clear cut but I still think my decision to shove had a slight edge.

[The Camel]

Bet enough to make him make mistake if he's calling.

By my calaculations there is 33k in the pot.

You are confident he has Kx. So he has 8 outs 3 2's 3 x's 2 k's), 36/8.. so he's roughly 9-2 to hit.

If you bet 16k he's taking 3-1 about a 9-2 shot and almost sure to call.. And if he he misses he's getting huge odds to call on the river when you shove. You can safely get away from your hand if a deuce or king comes on the river. Obv you go brokes if he hits his kicker, but thems the breaks.

I hate shoving here when I'm sure I have the best hand.

[GreekStein]

Bet enough to make him make mistake if he's calling.

By my calaculations there is 33k in the pot.

You are confident he has Kx. So he has 8 outs 3 2's 3 x's 2 k's), 36/8.. so he's roughly 9-2 to hit.

If you bet 16k he's taking 3-1 about a 9-2 shot and almost sure to call.. And if he he misses he's getting huge odds to call on the river when you shove. You can safely get away from your hand if a deuce or king comes on the river. Obv you go brokes if he hits his kicker, but thems the breaks.

I hate shoving here when I'm sure I have the best hand.

good post

[AlexMartin]

Bet enough to make him make mistake if he's calling.

By my calaculations there is 33k in the pot.

You are confident he has Kx. So he has 8 outs 3 2's 3 x's 2 k's), 36/8.. so he's roughly 9-2 to hit.

If you bet 16k he's taking 3-1 about a 9-2 shot and almost sure to call.. And if he he misses he's getting huge odds to call on the river when you shove. You can safely get away from your hand if a deuce or king comes on the river. Obv you go brokes if he hits his kicker, but thems the breaks.

I hate shoving here when I'm sure I have the best hand.

good post

+1

shame you couldnt cr more n the flop to let you shove turn (which looks more bluffy) but thems the breaks.

[Jamier-Host]

1. Check the turn which will probably induce a check from my opponent giving him a chance to hit his King, pair the deuce or hit his (unknown) kicker.
Pro's: I know almost exactly where I am in the hand.  If a King or deuce arrive, I give up the hand without losing a penny more.
Con's: If an ace arrives, I probably don't get much from him. His kicker is still unknown to me - so if it comes a high card - I can't safely value bet and end up perhaps paying him off.

2. Bet about 15,000 (a touch less than half)
Pro's: It will be quite hard for him to fold as if he felt he was ahead on the flop, this is a similar size bet and thus he won't be able to resist due to the blank deuce on the turn.  This play may also induce an All-in from him.
Con's: This Leaves me open to getting knocked out of a tourney in which I believe I am one of the better players.

3. Go All-in for about 29,000 (this will leave Steve about 13,000)
Pro's: There a nice pot of about 32,000 with no attached risk (if he folds).  I get all my money in with the best hand (probable 80% advantage)
Con's: I don't give myself a chance to escape, if he calls and a King or Deuce hit the river.

Surely your "con's" for options 2 & 3 aren't actually reasons not to go for them.  They basically reinforce the fact that they are both a much better option than #1 as the only downside is your opponent getting lucky and outdrawing you.

I would say the major "con" for option #3 is that he might pass, and so would go for #2.

[paulhouk03]

i would shove ur hand is strong but not that strong
and i would be happy taking the pot there and then