Call or Pass?

[dino1980]

Satellite hand that i'd like opinions on. This is from a $100 satellite to a $1k WSOP qualifier on Full Tilt, i'm not intending to play the $1k event, just playing this for $t. There are a number of these running on a Thursday, we've selected this particular satellite due to the fact that about 1/3rd of the field has qualified through a $14 feeder.

Payout Info: 8 seats worth $1k each, 9th gets $260, 10th $156

We're currenntly 6/11 but essentially tied for 10th with three other players, with only one real shortstack (he acutally goes out on the other table as this hand plays out and is one of the reasons i time banked) and this leaves us 6/10. This is a turbo where blinds go up every five minutes and they'll rise to 1500/3000 in four minutes time, with one more elimination we'll go to a final table of nine.

Reads on Berkanator - very few, he has the ironman chip which says nothing about his playing style but it means he is obv somewhat of a regular player, IIRC he has given us one walk previously but back when blinds were 400/800 ish. Despite his range being very wide here (i'd probs be shoving atc if positions were reversed) and the fact that we're not in a spot where we can fold to a seat yet i think this is quite close. We shoved the previous hand UTG and got it through and the 'big stack' to our immed left is tight, french and playing well above their abi. Bug Huni who is currently BB when we are btn is on the loose side from what i've seen.

What this bolis down to is:

Call and win - we win seat 100% of the time
Call and lose - we win $156 100% of the time (we'll have <1000 chips left)
Fold - we win seat ??% of the time.

Anyone know how to work out what ??% needs to be to make this a fold if we suspect he's shoving damn near atc? I'm 72% against ATC and 65% against a range incl all pairs/broadways/hands with 1 over card

Anyway call or pass?

Seat 2: shomyshow (16,055)
Seat 4: Big Huni (13,051)
Seat 5: DEELEE7 (16,810)
Seat 7: berkenator (11,880)
Seat 9: dino1980 (12,380)
shomyshow antes 300
Big Huni antes 300
DEELEE7 antes 300
berkenator antes 300
dino1980 antes 300
berkenator posts the small blind of 1,200
dino1980 posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [ ]
shomyshow folds
Big Huni folds
DEELEE7 has 15 seconds left to act
DEELEE7 folds
berkenator raises to 11,580, and is all in
dino1980 has 15 seconds left to act
dino1980 has requested TIME

[Robert HM]

This is hurting my head, I can't find a fold but not 100% sure it's the right thing to do.

[Longy]

Wow this looks close, i have changed my mind twice while writing this post. Whatever decision you made i wouldn't get too worried about as it is not a massive mistake either way.

I am going to say call, but may well be wrong.

[boldie]

close, but I''d probs fold here. At this stage I want to be doing the pushing really.

[Simon Galloway]

I see people call far too much in some of these things, however I think I find a call here.  It isn't great and some slight changes to any of the playing variables would help me find a fold.  So I guess Longy is about right, it can't be that bad either way.  But the blinds are absolutely astronomical here, yes I'd like to be doing the pushing, but by the time the button passes me, I am going to be short enough that their calling ranges widen to match.  Might as well lock a seat up here and expect to be 70% fav to win the hand.

[paulhouk03]

100% Call Its only a seat and i think sats on ft are pretty soft

[LOJ]

Fold for me...  in this position i would rather be doing the pushing........  it is close but i think u have more to gain by folding and getting it in first as u have an orbit to get it in....

[cia260895]

Seeing as yr playing for T$ I'd be folding here

I'd be wanting to push with this hand rather than call esp with the big jump in $$ between 10,9th and the seat worth $1K

[MC]

This looks so close. Ugh, what a tough spot...

I think I lean towards calling, just. But like the others I accept that this could be the wrong thing to do.

[daviebhoy]

(Just realised my most obvious mistake)

I won't be surprised (neither will most of you I'm sure) if I have got this completely wrong but I have had a go.

You would really need stack sizes from the other table to work this out properly.

Assuming table 2 is exactly the same as table 1 (which it won't be) before the hand is played your ICM Equites are :

Table 1

Seat 2: shomyshow (16,055)    878.236
Seat 4: Big Huni (13,051)         827.405
Seat 5: DEELEE7 (16,810)        888.142
Seat 7: berkenator (11,880)     801.271
Seat 9: dino1980 (12,380)       812.946

Table 2

Seat 2: shomyshow (16,055)    878.236
Seat 4: Big Huni (13,051)         827.405
Seat 5: DEELEE7 (16,810)        888.142
Seat 7: berkenator (11,880)     801.271
Seat 9: dino1980 (12,380)       812.946

If you call and win you are :

Seat 9: dino1980 (25,160)       976.924

If you call and lose you are :

Seat 9: dino1980 (0)               160

If you fold you are :

Seat 9: dino1980 (9680)          739.820

Assuming SB pushes with ATC then :

72% time you win $164
28% time you lose $580

If you fold you win/lose $0.

Decision is whether or not calling is profitable. I'm not sure I'm working this out right but I think a fold is correct.

Ev (0.72*164) - (0.28*580)
    118 - 162.4
    -44.4

Or have I got this totally wrong and it should be :

72% time you win $977
28% time you lose $580

Ev (0.72*977) - (0.28*580)
    703.44 - 162.4
    541.04

541.04 is < $740 so fold is better.

(And the right way to do it :


If you call :

72% time you have $977
28% time you have $160

(0.72*977) + (0.28*160)
703.44 + 44.8
748.24

Therefore equity is $748.24 when you call.

If you fold equity is $739.820.

Therefore sngwiz is correct and this is a call.)

[Longy]

(Just realised my most obvious mistake)

I won't be surprised (neither will most of you I'm sure) if I have got this completely wrong but I have had a go.

You would really need stack sizes from the other table to work this out properly.

Assuming table 2 is exactly the same as table 1 (which it won't be) before the hand is played your ICM Equites are :

Table 1

Seat 2: shomyshow (16,055)    878.236
Seat 4: Big Huni (13,051)         827.405
Seat 5: DEELEE7 (16,810)        888.142
Seat 7: berkenator (11,880)     801.271
Seat 9: dino1980 (12,380)       812.946

Table 2

Seat 2: shomyshow (16,055)    878.236
Seat 4: Big Huni (13,051)         827.405
Seat 5: DEELEE7 (16,810)        888.142
Seat 7: berkenator (11,880)     801.271
Seat 9: dino1980 (12,380)       812.946

If you push and win you are :

Seat 9: dino1980 (25,160)       976.924

If you push and lose you are :

Seat 9: dino1980 (0)               160

If you fold you are :

Seat 9: dino1980 (9680)          739.820

Assuming SB pushes with ATC then :

72% time you win $164
28% time you lose $580

If you fold you win/lose $0.

Decision is whether or not calling is profitable. I'm not sure I'm working this out right but I think a fold is correct.

Ev (0.72*164) - (0.28*580)
    118 - 162.4
    -44.4

Or have I got this totally wrong and it should be :

72% time you win $977
28% time you lose $580

Ev (0.72*977) - (0.28*740)
    703.44 - 162.4
    541.04

541.04 is < $740 so fold is better.

Aaah ignore see what you have done now.

As you correctly point out doing ICM calcs without knowing everyones stack is not going to be very accurate.

[daviebhoy]

We are calling not pushing. Also i can't believe that if we were open pushing 9's that we wouldn't show a profit.

Fixed that. I meant call not push.

dn

[Longy]

We are 11 handed as well, so there is 6 ppl at the other table. Doing the ICM is fraught with dangers here.

[daviebhoy]

We are 11 handed as well, so there is 6 ppl at the other table. Doing the ICM is fraught with dangers here.

He says we are 10 handed hence we are guaranteed $160 for 10th place if we call and lose.

I am well aware that doing ICM is dangerous here but I thought the point of the post was asking how you would go about calculating this. I made some assumptions to :

1) See if I get slated for calculating this all wrongly and then learn how to do this properly

2) See what the result would be based on some reasonable assumptions to get an idea of where we are here.

[Longy]

Aaah yeah a person gets knocked out during the hand, lol.

Sngwiz answer, done some shortcuts like cutting the antes in half to replicate the true value of the pot and putting everyone at the same table, also had to make the % payouts to the nearest number

Click to see full-size image.

Struggling to see where you have gone wrong in your calcs, but in sngwiz we trust imo.